Single most in danger Clinton state of switching

[DPKdebator]

Since there's a thread on this for Republican states, it only makes sense for there to be a Democratic counterpart. What Clinton-voting state is most likely to flip in 2020? Explain in one sentence.

I'll go with New Hampshire, because a .2% difference isn't exactly out of reach for Trump even if he's just okay (although he'll be much better than that).

[Mr. Smith]

Minnesota should've flipped, but didn't. Wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota now is like Montana or Missouri in '08.

But yeah, probably New Hampshire or Maine.

[Dr. Arch]

I'd say Maine.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Minnesota, followed closely by Maine and New Hampshire.

My current 2020 map is Trump+MN+ME+NH (322-216)

[Pericles]

New Hampshire, it was won by less than 1% by Clinton and has lots of non-college educated whites, good for Trump.

[Cashew]

Minnesota, followed closely by Maine and New Hampshire.

[Kingpoleon]

Assuming Trump's the nominee:
1. New Hampshire
2. Maine

If Trump retires and Ryan, Pence, or Kasich is the nominee:
1. Minnesota
2. New Hampshire

Cruz/Rubio/Flake/any Mormon or Hispanic:
1. Nevada
2. Colorado

[UncleSam]

Went with Nevada but New Hampshire is definitely possible as well. Nevada was a state many thought was leaning Trump before the Access Hollywood tapes came out (though in retrospect the Latino turnout was probably always being underpolled there), and it's not hard to imagine him doing a bit better with Latinos if he is a moderately successful president and doesn't insult any more Mexican judges / all Mexican immigrants / etc. - look to Heller's race in 2018 for how Trump might do there in 2020.

I think Minnesota isn't going to flip, there's a lot of Democratic strength there that probably didn't figure it needed to show up because it was never seen as seriously contested. Virginia is probably a state to look to if Republicans do well in the 2017 / 2018 statewide gubernatorial / senate races there, but otherwise no.

Honestly Trump's more likely to be playing defense than offense however, even if he is relatively successful.

[Figueira]

New Hampshire, for the same reason I voted Michigan in the other thread. Maine, Nevada, and Minnesota are also possibilities; I don't see any of the others flipping unless at least one of those four also flips.

[Figueira]

Actually come to think of it Virginia is also a possibility. That state is a bit mysterious to me.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Gotta go with NH just because of how close it was.

[Mr. Smith]

I will guess New Hampshire because I'm assuming Minnesota will be fortified in the next election by Democrats.  New Hampshire was already targeted by Democrats and was still close.  Virginia is not a serious possibility.

Never underestimate the power of the I-81 corridor or downstate voter...Warner and McAuliffe did precisely that and almost lost against people with nowhere near the same pull as Trump.

[jaichind]

MN.  MN 18-24 olds went Trump 48-43 while 65+ olds went Clinton 49-47.  MN will trend GOP for sure in 2020.

[Dr. Arch]

MN.  MN 18-24 olds went Trump 48-43 while 65+ olds went Clinton 49-47.  MN will trend GOP for sure in 2020.

If true then this is right.

Sigh...

[jaichind]

MN.  MN 18-24 olds went Trump 48-43 while 65+ olds went Clinton 49-47.  MN will trend GOP for sure in 2020.

If true then this is right.

Sigh...

You see something similar in WI as well but not as dramatic.  18-24 year olds went Trump in WI 45-43 while 25-29 went Clinton 51-42. 

Same for MO where 18-24 year olds went Trump 57-35 while 25-29 went Clinton 48-43.  In MO I suspect this has a lot with the Mizzou protests of 2015.  Seems like there is a silent majority in MO college students that was very negative on the protests and went Trump.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

MN.  MN 18-24 olds went Trump 48-43 while 65+ olds went Clinton 49-47.  MN will trend GOP for sure in 2020.

If true then this is right.

Sigh...

You see something similar in WI as well but not as dramatic.  18-24 year olds went Trump in WI 45-43 while 25-29 went Clinton 51-42. 

Same for MO where 18-24 year olds went Trump 57-35 while 25-29 went Clinton 48-43.  In MO I suspect this has a lot with the Mizzou protests of 2015.  Seems like there is a silent majority in MO college students that was very negative on the protests and went Trump.

The exit polls were fascinating with the young vote.  Iowa voted like 25 points to the right of Georgia with 18-29s (though, that might be because Georgia 18-29s are much less white than old Georgians, while Iowa 18-29s are still pretty much just as white as old Iowans).

[heatcharger]

MN.  MN 18-24 olds went Trump 48-43 while 65+ olds went Clinton 49-47.

I think that's more a symptom of low turnout among the youngs, as this time they were 10% of the Minnesota electorate compared to 14% last time when Obama won the bracket by 34%. Although yes, it is clear that young, white upper Midwesterners are more Republican than the generation whose first vote was for Obama.

[Eraserhead]

Maine (statewide) probably.

[BigSkyBob]

Nevada.

The combination of a 1.2 billion dollar campaign [against a lesser funded opponent], a sitting Senate Minority leader, early voting, easy voting and a Democratic Justice department will not be duplicated.