Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?
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  Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?
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Author Topic: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?  (Read 11766 times)
Silent Hunter
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« Reply #25 on: January 10, 2017, 06:33:04 AM »

Incidentally, am I the only one who thinks "Stormont" would be a perfect name for a Tolkien-esque fantasy villain?

Or a castle in Game of Thrones, which is of course filmed in NI.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #26 on: January 10, 2017, 10:25:55 AM »

There are a few different figures that I've seen; none will be 100% accurate since parties will have different strategies for five seat constituencies than they would six seaters - different numbers of candidates standing in each seat; different vote management strategies, that sort of thing.  Its certainly much more complex than just dropping the sixth candidate elected in each seat.

You're right of course but all i was doing was pointing out that its not necessarily as simple as "higher quotas disfavour the minor parties" either since they already have to get over a fairly high hurdle to begin with.

I expect that the Green seat in South Belfast will be vulnerable, even if my simplistic post above considers the second DUP member to be in sixth place there, but more important could be things like SF losing seats in North and East Antrim while unionists lose seats in Mid Ulster and West Tyrone. Not a positive change when trying to move past the conflict
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #27 on: January 12, 2017, 03:42:21 PM »

Why is direct rule bad?
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Polkergeist
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« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2017, 05:29:43 AM »

Here is 90 seat estimate from the Slugger O'Toole blog

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/12/22/if-the-2016-assembly-election-had-had-five-seats-per-constituency/ 

It seems UUP gets the worst of it. It loses 5 seats, like SF & DUP but from a lower base.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #29 on: January 13, 2017, 06:02:36 AM »

Here is 90 seat estimate from the Slugger O'Toole blog

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/12/22/if-the-2016-assembly-election-had-had-five-seats-per-constituency/ 

It seems UUP gets the worst of it. It loses 5 seats, like SF & DUP but from a lower base.

Nicholas Whyte's work inn this area is generally very good.  But I'm still not sure that there are enough "Other" votes in South Belfast to save both the Alliance and the Greens, although there weren't really enough last tine tbh, they were very fortunate with transfers
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2017, 10:44:14 AM »


Basically, its a solution that satisfies literally no one and which is likely to lead to even worse government.  Like a prolonged period of direct rule would just embolden the extremists on both sides and while I doubt that we'd ever get back to the Troubles again, even a slight uptick in violence is a bad thing.

Besides, a large powerful central government governs worse nine times in ten than a devolved government and assembly, even one as dysfunctional as Northern Irelands...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2017, 11:06:58 AM »

Who is likely to benefit from this scandal/ensuing election? I understand that NI politics aren't especially volatile, and people don't really change camps. With that in mind, will the election just be status quo, or will we see smaller sectarian parties and the non sectarian parties benefit at the expense of the Big Four (Two?)
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2017, 11:44:42 AM »
« Edited: January 14, 2017, 11:47:38 AM by Tintrlvr »

Here is 90 seat estimate from the Slugger O'Toole blog

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/12/22/if-the-2016-assembly-election-had-had-five-seats-per-constituency/  

It seems UUP gets the worst of it. It loses 5 seats, like SF & DUP but from a lower base.

Nicholas Whyte's work inn this area is generally very good.  But I'm still not sure that there are enough "Other" votes in South Belfast to save both the Alliance and the Greens, although there weren't really enough last tine tbh, they were very fortunate with transfers

That seems overly pessimistic. There were about 2.2 seats' worth of votes for non-sectarians in Belfast South last time around (taking into account that the non-sectarian parties always receive transfers ahead of sectarian parties); there was a second Alliance candidate who was not elected but did reach rather late rounds and might have also been elected had Anna Lo and her personal popularity still been on the ballot to draw extra votes for the Alliance. If the Alliance nominates someone very popular and/or the Greens really flub, the Greens could lose their seat to the Alliance, but overall I think two non-sectarian seats are quite safe in Belfast South even if a seat is dropped. I think -1 DUP is the most likely result there.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2017, 12:58:45 PM »

Who is likely to benefit from this scandal/ensuing election? I understand that NI politics aren't especially volatile, and people don't really change camps. With that in mind, will the election just be status quo, or will we see smaller sectarian parties and the non sectarian parties benefit at the expense of the Big Four (Two?)

There's no polling (although I'm pretty sure the quality of NI polling isn't too great) so who knows at this point - my hunch would be that the DUP might drop a bit with those votes going to the UUP and other smaller unionists although those latter votes would probably end up transferring to the DUP anyway - they're almost certain to still be first though.  Sinn Fein have came out of this looking alright actually and I can't see them falling a whole lot if they do; especially considering that the SDLP have only just changed leader and the new one hasn't had any time to establish themselves.  Those are hunches though, and so I'm probably wrong.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2017, 04:26:27 PM »


Basically, its a solution that satisfies literally no one and which is likely to lead to even worse government.  Like a prolonged period of direct rule would just embolden the extremists on both sides and while I doubt that we'd ever get back to the Troubles again, even a slight uptick in violence is a bad thing.

Besides, a large powerful central government governs worse nine times in ten than a devolved government and assembly, even one as dysfunctional as Northern Irelands...

Also, the main UK parties have not (generally) run in NI elections and so they have no seats. As a result, the current Northern Ireland Secretary is an MP from South East London...
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joevsimp
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« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2017, 04:47:38 PM »

Here is 90 seat estimate from the Slugger O'Toole blog

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/12/22/if-the-2016-assembly-election-had-had-five-seats-per-constituency/  

It seems UUP gets the worst of it. It loses 5 seats, like SF & DUP but from a lower base.

Nicholas Whyte's work inn this area is generally very good.  But I'm still not sure that there are enough "Other" votes in South Belfast to save both the Alliance and the Greens, although there weren't really enough last tine tbh, they were very fortunate with transfers

That seems overly pessimistic. There were about 2.2 seats' worth of votes for non-sectarians in Belfast South last time around (taking into account that the non-sectarian parties always receive transfers ahead of sectarian parties); there was a second Alliance candidate who was not elected but did reach rather late rounds and might have also been elected had Anna Lo and her personal popularity still been on the ballot to draw extra votes for the Alliance. If the Alliance nominates someone very popular and/or the Greens really flub, the Greens could lose their seat to the Alliance, but overall I think two non-sectarian seats are quite safe in Belfast South even if a seat is dropped. I think -1 DUP is the most likely result there.

yeah you're right there, I must've miscalculated or missed the second runner from the alliance
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joevsimp
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« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2017, 01:22:50 PM »

So it's now officially on for Thursday 2nd March.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #37 on: March 02, 2017, 05:28:37 AM »

Voting has now started and results will filter in gradually throughout tomorrow, but the general shadow of the results should be fairly clear from the first preferences.

A guide from the bbc on the PR-STV system I saw this on the BBC and thought you should see it:

NI Assembly Election: How does the STV system work? - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-northern-ireland-2017-38911918


And the results of the final opinion poll.  LucidTalk will also be doing an exit poll tonight.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #38 on: March 02, 2017, 05:55:17 AM »

I think that LucidTalk poll also has a pretty marge sample size so the MoE theoretically should be quite small.  It does seem to suggest that there's a chance - a really quite small one - that Sinn Fein might get the most first preference votes.  Now if they did and it was close the DUP would still get the most seats because there are more unionist preferences than nationalist ones and the cross-community ones generally don't flow strongly one way or the other: they'll help each other and maybe also the SDLP and moderate unionist independents (the UUP in the past, less so now I think) but then scatter a bit; in a DUP/Sinn Fein last seat battle those preference scatter between both parties and exhausting and I can't see that changing unless Cash for Ash has really soured hardcore unionists on the DUP to the point of not preferencing them.

The rise in the cross-community vote is crucial though in that the Alliance and the Greens are the parties most at risk from losing their seats in a number of constituencies because of the shift from six member seats to five member ones, so if their votes hold up then it might mean they get over the line in those seats.

The most likely result is probably still the DUP leading and Sinn Fein second and I don't know what that would mean for powersharing: I think that the Shinners might not want to go back into government with Arlene Foster as First Minister but if they don't that means direct rule which is Bad.  If Sinn Fein manage to get the most seats (very, very unlikely; it'd require both them winning the First Preference votes and very difference preference transfers than we've ever seen before favouring Sinn Fein over the DUP) then they'd get the First Ministership which would be controversial in a few places: while I think that we may be in the position of the DUP accepting that I don't think that its something that we can ever be sure about until it happens.

The most crucial thing IMO is that the DUP get below 30 seats; ideally a fair amount lower than that.  That's the number you need to submit a petition of concern against any legislation and change the conditions for it passing (from a majority vote to 60% of the House and a majority of both communities).  Its meant to be used to prevent the assembly from passing any legislation that a community feels is harming their interests (the Irish language comes to mind here as something that the nationalist side might use it to protect) but the DUP, as the only party who has over 30 seats by themselves at the minute, has been using it to block lots of things that only they don't like: marriage equality is the biggest one.  Because of the downsized assembly there's a pretty good chance that the DUP won't be able to do that again which would be good, IMO.  If they get 29 then they could get together with Allister to block stuff but that would require unanimous support from the DUP members: below that they they'd need to attract UUP support and they've not signed on to that many petitions.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #39 on: March 02, 2017, 11:07:04 AM »

What I'm worried about is that the uup and sdlp have under nominated.  They are running 45 candidates between them which is a bare majority of they all get in,  which they won't. They are calling for people to vote DUP/SF our of office but don't have enough candidates to replace them
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YL
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« Reply #40 on: March 02, 2017, 12:23:20 PM »

So, where will be this election's Longford-Westmeath?
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #41 on: March 02, 2017, 02:30:28 PM »

So, where will be this election's Longford-Westmeath?

*waves nostalgically*

Not a clue. Not even Longford-Westmeath thought it was going to be Longford-Westmeath until the second day of the count.

Straws on the Twitter wind indicate that turnout is up but more so in mixed and Nationalist areas than in Unionist ones. Arlene may have made the mistake of kicking the sleeping dog once too often.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2017, 06:57:26 AM »

The story at this point seems to be generally increased turnout; particularly in nationalist areas.  Its not like the Unionist turnout has been flat (North Down has spiked and that's got practically no nationalists in it) but in areas with stronger nationalist votes its gone up more.  Currently averaging a 10% increase which is really rather remarkable.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #43 on: March 03, 2017, 07:21:05 AM »

Here are the turnout numbers: 
 
Fermanagh & South Tyrone: 72.61% (+8.06)
Mid Ulster: 72.38% (+13.63)
West Tyrone: 69.89% (+10.03)
Newry & Armagh: 69.41% (+10.09)
West Belfast: 66.76% (+8.96)
South Down: 66.21% (+12.41)
Foyle: 65.00% (+9.00)
South Belfast: 63.96% (+9.71)
North Antrim: 63.22% (+10.29)
East Belfast: 63.02% (+5.79)
East Londonderry: 62.69% (+11.90)
Lagan Valley: 62.57% (+9.38)
Upper Bann: 62.54% (+8.10)
South Antrim: 62.40% (+11.39)
North Belfast: 61.77% (+9.29)
Strangford: 60.94%(+10.69)
East Antrim: 60.12% (+9.11)
North Down: 59.22% (+9.65)
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joevsimp
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« Reply #44 on: March 03, 2017, 08:30:30 AM »
« Edited: March 03, 2017, 08:36:57 AM by joevsimp »

Fist fref results in for South and East Antrim, no-one has met tree quota in either.

East:  front runners from DUP and UUP look safe.  Ukip miles back.  Alliance, SF and 2nd DUP likely to get seats so DUP loss to redistribution

South: SF's sole candidate tops the poll with uup not far behind.   Former Alliance leader Dabid Ford is further back but should make it which leaves DUP's 3 outgoing MLAs fighting for the last two seats.

Meanwhile in South down,  rumour has UUP and SDLP losing a seat each  and Alliance gaining their first in a historically mostly nationalist constituency
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #45 on: March 03, 2017, 08:51:05 AM »

Belfast West is going to be 4 Sinn Fein, 1 PBP: the DUP and Attwood are at half a quota with no real preferences that they can rely on.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #46 on: March 03, 2017, 09:00:22 AM »

North Down is in. DUP, UUP and Alliance elected on the first count.  Second DUP in fourth and Green leader Stephen Agnew in fifth. Both are far enough ahead to get in but i know that the greens had hopes of Agnew topping the poll so a bit of a dissapointment.

So in three of the most strongly unionist cobstituencies, the DUP  have gone from 3 to 2 with the various others holding their ground
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Bumaye
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« Reply #47 on: March 03, 2017, 09:11:12 AM »

Foyle with two for each Sinn Féin and SDLP. For the 5th seat DUP is ahead but if Alliance' and UUP's hate for the DUP prevails then maybe the PBP can steal it.
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Intell
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« Reply #48 on: March 03, 2017, 09:17:10 AM »

Is there a link to watch this?
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #49 on: March 03, 2017, 09:35:02 AM »

The BBC coverage is on BBC 1 Northern Ireland and BBC Parliament; find one of those and you're grand.
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