Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?
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  Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?
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Author Topic: Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?  (Read 11765 times)
YL
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« Reply #75 on: March 03, 2017, 06:40:56 PM »

East Derry finished DUP 2 SF 1 SDLP 1 Ind Sugden 1.

So assuming the Greens do get a seat in Belfast South and nothing weird happens in Belfast East or Foyle it's going to end up as DUP 28, SF 27, SDLP 12, UUP 10, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

Based on that, there'd only be one more Unionist than Nationalist in the Assembly.  (Sugden is Ind U.)  And the DUP and TUV would be below 30 which means they can't launch a Petition of Concern to block same sex marriage.
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« Reply #76 on: March 03, 2017, 08:02:31 PM »

NI Assembly update: Three constituencies are still counting.

EAST LONDONDERRY
Ind (Sugden) and 2 DUP elected
Tenth count, quota 6979, two seats left
Archibald  SF  6320
Dallat  SDLP  5443
Ó hOisín  SF  5221
There are only Unionist votes left to transfer so Dallat should be safe for the final seat.

BELFAST EAST
2 All, 1 DUP and 1 UUP elected.  The final count is between the two remaining DUP candidates so this will finish 2 All 2 DUP 1 UUP.

BELFAST SOUTH
1 SF, 1 SDLP and 1 All already elected
Seventh count, quota 7176, 2 seats left
Bailey  Grn  6344
Stalford  DUP  4726
Little Pengelly  DUP  4695
Henderson  UUP  4647
The next stage is to transfer an Alliance surplus of 514, after which one of the Unionist candidates will be eliminated.  The most likely outcome for the final two seats is Grn/DUP.

The most likely outcome for the five remaining seats is 2 DUP 1 SF 1 SDLP 1 Grn, which makes an Assembly of DUP 28 SF 27 SDLP 12 UUP 10 Alliance 8 Grn 2 and 1 each TUV/PBP/Sugden, or alternatively Unionists 40 (including Sugden) Nationalists 39 Others 11.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #77 on: March 03, 2017, 08:37:17 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2017, 08:43:26 PM by Clyde1998 »

With two seats to declare in Belfast South:

DUP - 27
SF - 27
SDLP - 12
UUP - 10
Alliance - 8
Green - 1
TUV - 1
PBP - 1
Independent - 1

Probably going to be a Green and a DUP MLA elected in Belfast South from the final two seats, although the UUP might snatch the final seat if the Alliance's and SDLP's votes transfer heavily towards their candidate in this count.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #78 on: March 03, 2017, 08:43:57 PM »

What happens if Sinn Féin and DUP tie? Who becomes Forst Minister and who becomes Deputy First Minister?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #79 on: March 03, 2017, 08:54:50 PM »

What happens if Sinn Féin and DUP tie? Who becomes Forst Minister and who becomes Deputy First Minister?
I would assume that the DUP would gain the First Minister slot, as they had slightly more first preference votes. Although, I believe the assembly has to approve a joint ticket for First Minister and deputy First Minister, otherwise it's direct rule for Northern Ireland again. I'm not sure if Sinn Fein and the DUP could come to an agreement over who gets the First Minister slot in the event of a tie (despite the dFM role having the same responsibilities).

I would say that it's probably going to be a DUP lead of one seat by the end of this election though.

If the process worked like in Scotland or Wales, it would probably be a Sinn Fein First Minister - given the position and seats of the other parties.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #80 on: March 03, 2017, 09:39:30 PM »

DUP candidate officially elected in Belfast South; fight between Greens and UUP for the final seat.

DUP will be the largest party with 28 seats - two short for a unilateral Petition of Concern. Hopefully this means that the Northern Ireland Assembly can start acting like it's the 21st century rather than the 19th century now.

My only concern is that this result will mean that there will be direct rule now, especially if Arlene Foster is the DUP's candidate for First Minister.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #81 on: March 03, 2017, 10:15:24 PM »

The Greens won the final seat, leaving the Assembly looking like this:

DUP - 28 (-10)
SF - 27 (-1)
SDLP - 12 (N/C)
UUP - 10 (-6)
Alliance - 8 (N/C)
Green - 2 (N/C)
TUV - 1 (N/C)
PBP - 1 (-1)
Independent - 1 (N/C)

It was the Unionists that took the big hit from the seat reduction.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #82 on: March 03, 2017, 10:18:01 PM »

Its interesting that while early on in the count everyone was doing down the SDLP calling it a terrible result; yet they've came out with the same number of seats in an Assembly that has been made smaller.  Just goes to show that we can't judge these things until all of the votes are counted...
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YL
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« Reply #83 on: March 04, 2017, 03:32:56 AM »

Its interesting that while early on in the count everyone was doing down the SDLP calling it a terrible result; yet they've came out with the same number of seats in an Assembly that has been made smaller.  Just goes to show that we can't judge these things until all of the votes are counted...

Indeed, they did fine in the end, thanks to doing well on transfers (especially from the UUP) but the South Down and Foyle results, being comfortably beaten by Sinn Féin in both and having a scare from Alliance for their second seat in the former, must be worrying.  They still have a reasonable niche in STV elections but if people vote like they did on Thursday in a Westminster election (which they won't, but still...) they'd be facing wipeout.

The UUP were really hit in Nationalist-leaning areas by the reduction from six to five seats in each constituency.  Last year, four constituencies elected four Nationalists and two Unionists, in each case one DUP and UUP each, and in all of those four this time it was down to one Unionist and it was the UUP seat which disappeared.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #84 on: March 04, 2017, 11:32:08 AM »

Its interesting that while early on in the count everyone was doing down the SDLP calling it a terrible result; yet they've came out with the same number of seats in an Assembly that has been made smaller.  Just goes to show that we can't judge these things until all of the votes are counted...

Indeed, they did fine in the end, thanks to doing well on transfers (especially from the UUP) but the South Down and Foyle results, being comfortably beaten by Sinn Féin in both and having a scare from Alliance for their second seat in the former, must be worrying.  They still have a reasonable niche in STV elections but if people vote like they did on Thursday in a Westminster election (which they won't, but still...) they'd be facing wipeout.

The UUP were really hit in Nationalist-leaning areas by the reduction from six to five seats in each constituency.  Last year, four constituencies elected four Nationalists and two Unionists, in each case one DUP and UUP each, and in all of those four this time it was down to one Unionist and it was the UUP seat which disappeared.

Nationalist turnout had dropped over the last few elections. Brexit (do not underestimate the shock and worry about the future that Brexit is delivering to the middle-of-the-road in NI) and Arlene's general performance over the last few months motivated it to come out this time.

The lower Nationalist turnout and 6 seats per constituency had enabled Unionism to hold on in areas that the underlying demography no longer justified. What we don't know yet is how Unionism will react to its loss of majority status being brought home to it quite so graphically.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #85 on: March 04, 2017, 02:05:14 PM »

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #86 on: March 04, 2017, 04:05:08 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2017, 04:10:17 PM by Tintrlvr »

Shouldn't Belfast North be green? It's 3 Nationalist, 2 Unionist. In first preferences, nationalists (SF+SDLP+WP) outdid unionists (DUP+UUP+PUP) 43.1% to 42.8% (the remainder being Alliance, PBP, Green and an independent who didn't get enough votes to make a difference even if he is a unionist).

And Belfast South should maybe be gray or something - it's 2 Nationalist, 2 Other, 1 Unionist.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #87 on: March 04, 2017, 07:41:56 PM »

The background colours are largest party not U or N Smiley
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Intell
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« Reply #88 on: March 04, 2017, 11:37:05 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2017, 11:51:34 PM by Intell »

Is the DUP or any unionist party in general quite moderate economically, yet loyalist, and sociall conservative, so it gets the vote of the protestant working class. Or is it economically right-wing and gets vote due to tribal loyalty.

On the left-right spectrum does economic ideology correspond with that, with the TUV being most economically right-wing, then the DUP, then the UUP then the Alliance etc.

What are the voting bases for each party? (Sinn Fein, SDLP, UUP, Alliance, DUP, TUV, Greens, PBP)

It's confusing who votes Sinn Fein vs SDLP vs PBP. UUP vs DUP vs TUV. Greens vs Alliance.

Who do the working class for each community vote for (DUP? mix of SF and SDLP?), and does the PBP attract working class voters, or middle class nationalist intellectuals?

What is the opinon of brexit by each party? Do any support a seccond refferendum, or like Sinn fein do SDLP or PBP support a border poll?
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Intell
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« Reply #89 on: March 04, 2017, 11:43:40 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 06:59:20 PM by Intell »


Why is South and West north Belfast not green.
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YL
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« Reply #90 on: March 05, 2017, 03:21:12 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 03:27:38 AM by YL »

Is the DUP or any unionist party in general quite moderate economically, yet loyalist, and sociall conservative, so it gets the vote of the protestant working class. Or is it economically right-wing and gets vote due to tribal loyalty.

On the left-right spectrum does economic ideology correspond with that, with the TUV being most economically right-wing, then the DUP, then the UUP then the Alliance etc.

The DUP could be described like that.  They also have strong Protestant fundamentalist tendencies; they're the one party represented in the UK Parliament where Young Earth Creationism is widespread, and are very much against abortion, gay rights etc.  Think of a fundamentalist Protestant version of Fianna Fáil.

The UUP is historically the establishment Unionist party and has a more middle class support base.  However, they keep trying to find different ways to distinguish themselves from the DUP.  Under Empey, they tried a formal alliance with the Tories, under Elliott, they seemed to be trying to be more hardline than the DUP, and under Nesbitt they were trying to be moderates (e.g. suggesting transfers to the SDLP).  If they had a consistent position it'd probably be economically to the right of the DUP, but it's hard to make a case for real economic right-wing policies in a place like Northern Ireland, which may be partly why the alliance with the Tories flopped.  They have had Labour-aligned MPs, including the now independent Sylvia Hermon who left because of that alliance.

The TUV is a splinter group of the DUP who think that the DUP have gone soft.

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SF - Catholics (meaning here people of a Catholic background rather than any strong religiosity)
SDLP - Catholics who aren't prepared to forget what Sinn Féin's friends used to get up to; middle class intellectual tendency.  (A nickname is the "Schoolteachers', Doctors' and Lawyers' Party".)
DUP - Protestants, especially (but not exclusively) working class and fundamentalists
TUV - Bible Belt nutters
UUP - middle class Protestants, Anglicans, people who see themselves as Unionists but don't like the DUP's bigotry and fundamentalism
Alliance - anti-sectarians, mainly fairly middle class (but not exclusively, otherwise they wouldn't have won Belfast East in 2010), Catholics in areas where they're a small minority.  Virtually non-existent west of the Bann.
Greens - similar to Alliance I think, and to Green parties in other places.   They have MLAs in North Down and Belfast South which says something.  If I had to move to Northern Ireland I'd live in Belfast South.
NI Tories - basically nobody!

I tend to assume PBP's base is working class -- there aren't that many middle-class intellectuals in West Belfast -- but I don't really know.  BTW they don't designate as "Nationalist".

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DUP, TUV and PBP were pro-Brexit, the rest were against.
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« Reply #91 on: March 05, 2017, 06:25:37 AM »


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And who do conservative Catholics (pro-lifers) vote for? Sinn Fein is rather secularist, even socialist, isn't it? The SDLP doesn't seem to be socially conservative either.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #92 on: March 05, 2017, 08:43:43 AM »


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And who do conservative Catholics (pro-lifers) vote for? Sinn Fein is rather secularist, even socialist, isn't it? The SDLP doesn't seem to be socially conservative either.

Depends how they feel about the IRA. SF if they like it or don't care, SDLP if they abhor it.
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Intell
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« Reply #93 on: March 05, 2017, 08:51:26 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 08:55:42 AM by Intell »


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And who do conservative Catholics (pro-lifers) vote for? Sinn Fein is rather secularist, even socialist, isn't it? The SDLP doesn't seem to be socially conservative either.

Do socially "Conservative" catholics even exist in NI? They probably do, but aren't a huge factor, and I presume they would vote for the SDLP (they care about their irish idenitity) or UUP (if they care about social issues.)

Votes for Irish people in NI, seem to go the same way as the same way as African-Americans in the US, though they seem more secular.

Have no idea though.
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« Reply #94 on: March 05, 2017, 09:13:47 AM »


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And who do conservative Catholics (pro-lifers) vote for? Sinn Fein is rather secularist, even socialist, isn't it? The SDLP doesn't seem to be socially conservative either.

Both. The SDLP is a stubborn pro-life party with no exceptions, and Sinn Fein is only marginally more moderate on the issue.
But who votes on abortion in the UK? This isn't the US so please don't muddle yourself.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #95 on: March 05, 2017, 01:17:43 PM »

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« Reply #96 on: March 05, 2017, 02:00:26 PM »

Irt brexit it's fair to say the EU campaign was even more superficial than it was on GB (if you can believe that). Unionist parties only supported Brexit because of symbolism, and Nationalists only opposed it because Unionists supported it. That's how Ulster rolls.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #97 on: March 05, 2017, 02:23:47 PM »

Irt brexit it's fair to say the EU campaign was even more superficial than it was on GB (if you can believe that). Unionist parties only supported Brexit because of symbolism, and Nationalists only opposed it because Unionists supported it. That's how Ulster rolls.

Yeah, I'm really surprised how issues just become instantly communatarian in NI, like Israel-Palestine, abortion (ROI was pro-life for a long long time), the economic divide. I know this happens a lot elsewhere (see flair), but I've never seen it to this proportionality.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #98 on: March 05, 2017, 03:13:24 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 03:27:57 PM by ObserverIE »

Irt brexit it's fair to say the EU campaign was even more superficial than it was on GB (if you can believe that). Unionist parties only supported Brexit because of symbolism, and Nationalists only opposed it because Unionists supported it. That's how Ulster rolls.

Yeah, I'm really surprised how issues just become instantly communatarian in NI, like Israel-Palestine, abortion (ROI was pro-life for a long long time), the economic divide. I know this happens a lot elsewhere (see flair), but I've never seen it to this proportionality.

The RoI is still pretty strongly pro-life by European or North American standards. (And what comparative polling we've seen doesn't show a major gap in views on this issue between North and South, or within Northern Ireland.)

As far as Brexit goes, the only parties who I would have said took knee-jerk positions based on symbolism were the DUP and TUV (the Treaty of Rome would be enough for the TUV). PBP were against based on fantasies about Lexit and their own crackpot ideology laid down from SWP headquarters in London and paid for it last Thursday.

The UUP officially opposed Brexit for economic reasons; the SDLP, Alliance and the Greens have always been pro-European, and SF, who have been very critical in the past, were opposed because of the implications for the Border and the Good Friday Agreement.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #99 on: March 05, 2017, 03:21:54 PM »
« Edited: March 05, 2017, 03:25:58 PM by ObserverIE »


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And who do conservative Catholics (pro-lifers) vote for? Sinn Fein is rather secularist, even socialist, isn't it? The SDLP doesn't seem to be socially conservative either.

Both. The SDLP is a stubborn pro-life party with no exceptions, and Sinn Fein is only marginally more moderate on the issue.
But who votes on abortion in the UK? This isn't the US so please don't muddle yourself.

You get a small fringe of extreme pro-lifers (Precious Life and their ilk) who will vote DUP simply because of abortion and because they don't consider the SDLP absolutist enough on the issue. SF support broadening the legislation to deal with rape, incest and pregnancies where there is no chance of the baby surviving birth due to chromosomal abnormalities, although there are activists within it who are more fundamentally pro-choice.

The extreme pro-choicers (legal for any reason, and at any stage in pregnancy) support the Trots (PBP and the SP's front, Cross-Community Labour Alliance) or the Greens.

However, it's not a high-salience issue on either side of the border, despite a lot of media coverage. An opinion poll during last year's RoI election showed that 1% viewed it as the most important issue, increasing to 5% when the top three issues for voters were listed.
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