Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?

[joevsimp]

West Belfast. SF in on the first count and should end up with 4. PBP look on target for the last seat with SDLP losing out and even behind the DUP.

South Belfast. SF elected. SDLP and Alliance look safe with greens fighting with 2 outgoing DUP for last two seats,  should pick up enough transfers to make it

Edit: not so sure now.  There are very close to 2 unionist quotas so Bailey (grn) will have too pick up some from the UUP yup keep her seat.  Not enough alliance and SDLP surpluses about.

[Intell]

The BBC coverage is on BBC 1 Northern Ireland and BBC Parliament; find one of those and you're grand.

Only can be watched in the UK.

[Tintrlvr]

West Belfast. SF in on the first count and should end up with 4. PBP look on target for the last seat with SDLP losing out and even behind the DUP.

South Belfast. SF elected. SDLP and Alliance look safe with greens fighting with 2 outgoing DUP for last two seats,  should pick up enough transfers to make it

Edit: not so sure now.  There are very close to 2 unionist quotas so Bailey (grn) will have too pick up some from the UUP yup keep her seat.  Not enough alliance and SDLP surpluses about.

I feel pretty good about it. Total Alliance+Green went from 26% to 28% in this election while the DUP total went from 22% to 21%. No way the Greens lose out to the DUP on those first preferences. It'll be DUP v. DUP for the last seat.

Bailey will get the lion's share of transfers from the second SDLP and Alliance candidates (as well as PBP and whatever the Cross Community Labour Alternative is) against the DUPers and do all right with UUP transfers. Which DUPer is out is much less certain and depends strongly on UUP and TUV preferences.

[IceAgeComing]

East Londonderry might be the one to watch as the count goes on: I think that there's definitely 2 Sinn Fein and 2 DUP: the last seat looks like it might be between Sugden and the third DUP.  Sugden is ahead of the third DUP by 1,100 votes but there are a lot more unionist votes than other votes hanging around.

[joevsimp]

West Belfast. SF in on the first count and should end up with 4. PBP look on target for the last seat with SDLP losing out and even behind the DUP.

South Belfast. SF elected. SDLP and Alliance look safe with greens fighting with 2 outgoing DUP for last two seats,  should pick up enough transfers to make it

Edit: not so sure now.  There are very close to 2 unionist quotas so Bailey (grn) will have too pick up some from the UUP yup keep her seat.  Not enough alliance and SDLP surpluses about.

I feel pretty good about it. Total Alliance+Green went from 26% to 28% in this election while the DUP total went from 22% to 21%. No way the Greens lose out to the DUP on those first preferences. It'll be DUP v. DUP for the last seat.

Bailey will get the lion's share of transfers from the second SDLP and Alliance candidates (as well as PBP and whatever the Cross Community Labour Alternative is) against the DUPers and do all right with UUP transfers. Which DUPer is out is much less certain and depends strongly on UUP and TUV preferences.

We'll just have to see.  Charter this morning on Twitter was that ELP was done for but she's only just behind.  It'll all cone down to where those UUP transfers go.

Looking at some of the other results,  it looks like one of those "the people have spoken, but we're not quite sure what they said" kind of days

[Tintrlvr]

East Londonderry might be the one to watch as the count goes on: I think that there's definitely 2 Sinn Fein and 2 DUP: the last seat looks like it might be between Sugden and the third DUP.  Sugden is ahead of the third DUP by 1,100 votes but there are a lot more unionist votes than other votes hanging around.

Belfast North is also pretty interesting. Seems like a reasonable possibility of -1 DUP, which would mean 3 nationalists (2 SF, 1 SDLP) to only 2 unionists (2 DUP) there, quite a change. Even though all the DUPers trail the SDLPer, there are a lot of unionist transfers, so it's still possible it will be -1 SDLP instead. Probably depends on the rate of exhaustion from UUP/PUP transfers and how well the Alliance transfers to SDLP vs. DUP. (There's also a somewhat remote chance of -1 SDLP, -1 DUP, +1 Alliance if UUP/PUP preference the Alliance over the DUP.)

[Bumaye]

Full first preference votes: 

DUP: 225,413 (28,1%) [-1,1%]
Sinn Féin: 224,245 (27,9%) [+3.9]
UUP: 103,314 (12.9%) [+0.3]
SDLP: 95,958 (11.9%) [-0.1%]
Alliance: 72,717 (9.1%) [+2.1%]
TUV: 20,523 (2.6%) [-0.9%]
Green: 18,527 (2.3%) [-0.4%]
Independents: 14,407 (1.8%) [-1.5%]
PBP: 14,100 (1.8%) [-0.2%]
Others: 14.111 (1.8%) [-1.9%]

[Tintrlvr]

Looking like UUP is experiencing a bit of a disaster in nationalist areas. They're almost definitely out in West Tyrone, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Newry and Armagh, South Down and Mid Ulster now.

I think they are also down one in Upper Bann. They should save their second seat at the expense of DUP in Strangford, but that's not certain yet.

On the bright side from them, they may make a gain at the expense of SF/DUP in East Antrim.

It also looks like there is a real chance of the SDLP making a gain in Lagan Valley to break into a previously all-unionist seat. Will be a close battle between the SDLP, UUP and DUP for the last seat. I think the SDLP would definitely be in if it were still a six-seater.

[MAINEiac4434]

Shinners are doing quite well it seems.

[YL]

Belfast South: I think there should be more Green than DUP transfers here, so SF, SDLP, DUP, UUP Alliance, Green 1 each
Belfast West: obviously SF 4, PBP 1.
Belfast East: looks like Alliance 2, DUP 2, UUP 1
Belfast North: looking like SF 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1.  I don't think the transfers will get the DUP's third candidate ahead of SF's second.
North Down: looks like DUP 2, Alliance 1, UUP 1, Green 1.
"Strangford": Transfers would have to go badly for the DUP for this not to be DUP 3, Alliance 1, UUP 1.
South Down: Depends on how much UUP transfers favour Alliance over the SDLP.  If they do by a bit, then SF 2, DUP 1, SDLP 1, Alliance 1.  That'd be a bit of a shock Alliance gain.
Lagan Valley: Nationalist and Green transfers favouring the UUP over the DUP makes me go for DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1.
Upper Bann: Depends on Alliance transfers helping the SDLP, but if they do then it'd be DUP 2, SF 1, SDLP 1, UUP 1.
Newry & Armagh: done, SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1.
Mid Ulster: Hard to see anything other than SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1.
Fermanagh & South Tyrone: currently recounting apparently.  My guess would be SF 3, DUP 1, UUP 1 but it depends how the recount goes and whether Nationalist (and Alliance) transfers help the UUP.
West Tyrone: looks like SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1.
Foyle: looks like SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1, so Eamonn McCann has lost.
East Derry: looks like SF 2, DUP 2, Ind Sugden 1.
North Antrim: looks like DUP 2, SF 1, TUV 1, UUP 1.
South Antrim: looks like DUP 2, SF 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1.
East Antrim: looks like DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1.

[YL]

... which would give DUP 28, SF 28, UUP 1211, SDLP 9, Alliance 89, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

(But I may have been a bit optimistic for the UUP in FST and for the SDLP in Upper Bann.)

[Tintrlvr]

That should be the Alliance not the UUP in Belfast South.

I also think SF over SDLP in Upper Bann and SF over UUP in FST. Which would mean SF largest party and SF+SDLP tied with DUP+UUP.........

SF: 3029, DUP: 28, UUP: 10, SDLP: 89, Alliance: 9, Green: 2, TUV: 1, PBP: 1, Sugden: 1

[YL]

That's should be the Alliance not the UUP in Belfast South.

Thanks; corrected.

[YL]

In Upper Bann Dolores Kelly (SDLP) has now overtaken Nuala Toman (SF) on those Alliance transfers, so I'm now confident of my prediction there.

[joevsimp]

as more optimistic posters than me predicted, CCLABALT transfers have put Claire Bailey ahead of Emma Little Pengelly, I winæt be happy until sheæs a couple of hundred clear of the other DUP candidate though, there will be a lot of UUP transfers up for grabs

meanwhile the UUP candidate has been eliminated in South Down, so we'll soon see whether they put Alliance ahead of the SDLP

[Tintrlvr]

In Upper Bann Dolores Kelly (SDLP) has now overtaken Nuala Toman (SF), so I'm now confident of my prediction there.

Okay, posted too fast, definitely SDLP over SF there now. Still whether SF+SDLP tie DUP+UUP will be determined by the SF/UUP battle in FST. Not that it really matters but would be pretty striking.

Who is First Minister if SF and DUP are the same size?

[Tintrlvr]

as more optimistic posters than me predicted, CCLABALT transfers have put Claire Bailey ahead of Emma Little Pengelly, I winæt be happy until sheæs a couple of hundred clear of the other DUP candidate though, there will be a lot of UUP transfers up for grabs

meanwhile the UUP candidate has been eliminated in South Down, so we'll soon see whether they put Alliance ahead of the SDLP

There's still an Alliance and an SDLP candidate to be eliminated. Bailey will be well clear of Pengelly and also Stalford.

[YL]

South Down update: the UUP transfers put Jim Wells (DUP) over the line, so most of the votes will be transferred again as Wells's surplus.

Quota 8,234

Ennis (SF) elected and surplus transferred
Bradley (SDLP) elected and surplus transferred
Hazzard (SF) elected, surplus of 593 to transfer
Wells (DUP) elected, surplus of 2,587 (from UUP) to transfer
McGrath (SDLP) 6,632
Brown (Alliance) 6,008

[YL]

FST update: the SDLP transfers elected two SF candidates but also helped the UUP against the DUP.

Quota 8,711

Foster (DUP) elected, surplus of 34 to transfer
Gildernew (SF) elected, surplus of 674 (from SDLP) to transfer
Dolan (SF) elected, surplus of 217 (from SDLP) to transfer
Barton (UUP) 8,334
Morrow (DUP) 7,405
Lynch (SF) 7,174

Looks like 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.

[joevsimp]

Mike Nesbit holding a press conference, opened with "well I think we all know why we're here...''

good speech, definately ran what Sir Humph would've called a courageous platform

[YL]

Updates:

FST, Belfast West, East Antrim all finished.

South Down: latest count suggests SDLP will hold on rather than lose to Alliance

South Belfast: Bailey (Green) now ahead of both DUP candidates.  Alliance, SDLP and UUP votes still to transfer.  I'd be very surprised if Bailey didn't make it.

Lagan Valley: Palmer (UUP) was eliminated too soon to benefit from SDLP transfers, so UUP won't get a second here.  Presumably her transfers will now put both DUP candidates ahead of the SDLP, giving 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance.

So my prediction is now DUP 29, SF 28, UUP 10, SDLP 10, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

[YL]

South Down finished as expected, SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1.

Strangford was surprisingly close, with the SDLP picking up a lot of UUP transfers to nearly grab the last seat off the DUP, but the DUP did get three in the end.  If the same happens in Lagan Valley then the SDLP could have a chance...

Also West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, South Antrim all finished as expected.

[YL]

In East Derry, Dallat (SDLP) increased his lead over McQuillan (DUP) on UUP transfers, so McQuillan is now eliminated.  The only transfers left are Unionist (and thousands of them) and Dallat is only 59 behind Ó Hoisín (SF) so this now looks like DUP 2, SF 1, SDLP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

[YL]

SDLP gain seat in Lagan Valley!  DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1

UUP transfers didn't break to the DUP to anything like the extent they usually do.

[YL]

East Derry finished DUP 2 SF 1 SDLP 1 Ind Sugden 1.

So assuming the Greens do get a seat in Belfast South and nothing weird happens in Belfast East or Foyle it's going to end up as DUP 28, SF 27, SDLP 12, UUP 10, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

Based on that, there'd only be one more Unionist than Nationalist in the Assembly.  (Sugden is Ind U.)  And the DUP and TUV would be below 30 which means they can't launch a Petition of Concern to block same sex marriage.