Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?

[Tintrlvr]

Isn't Stormont required to have a coalition government between catholic and protestant parties? If so, what does Sinn Fein get out of this?

Are you aware of the recent history of Northern Ireland, the civil war, the peace process and the very complex settlement that eventually ended it or not? What they get out of it is public £££ to give to their constituents so that they get re-elected and maintain their power base and careers, same as everyone else.

I understand the general gist of the Good Friday Agreement, and the power sharing agreements, but since then I find the whole structure of Stormont to be somewhat difficult to wrap my head around.

One question: why hasn't a First Minister been from Sinn Fein? Is that a political non starter in NI or is that more coincidence that anything?

Generally speaking, because the DUP has more seats (or rather, because unionist parties, as a whole, have more seats than nationalist parties). Sinn Fein (or another nationalist party) could have a First Minister only if nationalists won more seats than unionists, which can't happen at present because the demographics of Northern Ireland favor unionism (there are more Protestants than Catholics). In 20 or 30 years' time, that may be different, as Protestants skew older and Catholics younger (and a majority of under-30s are Catholics). In theory, it could also happen if voters stopped voting as strongly along demographic lines, or if a group like the Alliance or the Greens, which are nominally neither unionist nor nationalist (though most of their voters are Protestants), won away a large chunk of the vote from the unionist parties. But those are fairly unlikely scenarios.

Edit: Apparently the above is not the case, though it would make the most sense in my opinion. Instead, Sinn Fein would just have to win more seats than the DUP, even if nationalists overall won fewer seats than unionists. So, theoretically, if the SDLP fell apart, SF might gain the First Ministership while unionists still held a majority. As a practical matter, it is deeply unlikely that SF will be larger than the DUP in the near-term due to demographic polarization, barring a scenario such as the collapse of the SDLP (which would more likely result in a replacement party of more politically moderate Catholics than a mass migration to SF in any case).

That said, the First Minister and the Deputy First Minister are actually co-equal by law rather than one having more power or authority than the other, so the change would be merely cosmetic.

[Tintrlvr]

There really should be a sectarian labour and socialist party in NI, that takes a netural approach on TEH flegs cultural issues of the day.

Guess supporting SDLP, if they still have a reason to exist.

I believe People Before Profit is at least nominally non-sectarian (assume that's what you meant), though as a practical matter they win votes almost exclusively from Catholics.

[Tintrlvr]

Here is 90 seat estimate from the Slugger O'Toole blog

https://sluggerotoole.com/2016/12/22/if-the-2016-assembly-election-had-had-five-seats-per-constituency/  

It seems UUP gets the worst of it. It loses 5 seats, like SF & DUP but from a lower base.

Nicholas Whyte's work inn this area is generally very good.  But I'm still not sure that there are enough "Other" votes in South Belfast to save both the Alliance and the Greens, although there weren't really enough last tine tbh, they were very fortunate with transfers

That seems overly pessimistic. There were about 2.2 seats' worth of votes for non-sectarians in Belfast South last time around (taking into account that the non-sectarian parties always receive transfers ahead of sectarian parties); there was a second Alliance candidate who was not elected but did reach rather late rounds and might have also been elected had Anna Lo and her personal popularity still been on the ballot to draw extra votes for the Alliance. If the Alliance nominates someone very popular and/or the Greens really flub, the Greens could lose their seat to the Alliance, but overall I think two non-sectarian seats are quite safe in Belfast South even if a seat is dropped. I think -1 DUP is the most likely result there.

[Tintrlvr]

West Belfast. SF in on the first count and should end up with 4. PBP look on target for the last seat with SDLP losing out and even behind the DUP.

South Belfast. SF elected. SDLP and Alliance look safe with greens fighting with 2 outgoing DUP for last two seats,  should pick up enough transfers to make it

Edit: not so sure now.  There are very close to 2 unionist quotas so Bailey (grn) will have too pick up some from the UUP yup keep her seat.  Not enough alliance and SDLP surpluses about.

I feel pretty good about it. Total Alliance+Green went from 26% to 28% in this election while the DUP total went from 22% to 21%. No way the Greens lose out to the DUP on those first preferences. It'll be DUP v. DUP for the last seat.

Bailey will get the lion's share of transfers from the second SDLP and Alliance candidates (as well as PBP and whatever the Cross Community Labour Alternative is) against the DUPers and do all right with UUP transfers. Which DUPer is out is much less certain and depends strongly on UUP and TUV preferences.

[Tintrlvr]

East Londonderry might be the one to watch as the count goes on: I think that there's definitely 2 Sinn Fein and 2 DUP: the last seat looks like it might be between Sugden and the third DUP.  Sugden is ahead of the third DUP by 1,100 votes but there are a lot more unionist votes than other votes hanging around.

Belfast North is also pretty interesting. Seems like a reasonable possibility of -1 DUP, which would mean 3 nationalists (2 SF, 1 SDLP) to only 2 unionists (2 DUP) there, quite a change. Even though all the DUPers trail the SDLPer, there are a lot of unionist transfers, so it's still possible it will be -1 SDLP instead. Probably depends on the rate of exhaustion from UUP/PUP transfers and how well the Alliance transfers to SDLP vs. DUP. (There's also a somewhat remote chance of -1 SDLP, -1 DUP, +1 Alliance if UUP/PUP preference the Alliance over the DUP.)

[Tintrlvr]

Looking like UUP is experiencing a bit of a disaster in nationalist areas. They're almost definitely out in West Tyrone, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Newry and Armagh, South Down and Mid Ulster now.

I think they are also down one in Upper Bann. They should save their second seat at the expense of DUP in Strangford, but that's not certain yet.

On the bright side from them, they may make a gain at the expense of SF/DUP in East Antrim.

It also looks like there is a real chance of the SDLP making a gain in Lagan Valley to break into a previously all-unionist seat. Will be a close battle between the SDLP, UUP and DUP for the last seat. I think the SDLP would definitely be in if it were still a six-seater.

[Tintrlvr]

That should be the Alliance not the UUP in Belfast South.

I also think SF over SDLP in Upper Bann and SF over UUP in FST. Which would mean SF largest party and SF+SDLP tied with DUP+UUP.........

SF: 3029, DUP: 28, UUP: 10, SDLP: 89, Alliance: 9, Green: 2, TUV: 1, PBP: 1, Sugden: 1

[Tintrlvr]

In Upper Bann Dolores Kelly (SDLP) has now overtaken Nuala Toman (SF), so I'm now confident of my prediction there.

Okay, posted too fast, definitely SDLP over SF there now. Still whether SF+SDLP tie DUP+UUP will be determined by the SF/UUP battle in FST. Not that it really matters but would be pretty striking.

Who is First Minister if SF and DUP are the same size?

[Tintrlvr]

as more optimistic posters than me predicted, CCLABALT transfers have put Claire Bailey ahead of Emma Little Pengelly, I winæt be happy until sheæs a couple of hundred clear of the other DUP candidate though, there will be a lot of UUP transfers up for grabs

meanwhile the UUP candidate has been eliminated in South Down, so we'll soon see whether they put Alliance ahead of the SDLP

There's still an Alliance and an SDLP candidate to be eliminated. Bailey will be well clear of Pengelly and also Stalford.

[Tintrlvr]

Shouldn't Belfast North be green? It's 3 Nationalist, 2 Unionist. In first preferences, nationalists (SF+SDLP+WP) outdid unionists (DUP+UUP+PUP) 43.1% to 42.8% (the remainder being Alliance, PBP, Green and an independent who didn't get enough votes to make a difference even if he is a unionist).

And Belfast South should maybe be gray or something - it's 2 Nationalist, 2 Other, 1 Unionist.

[Tintrlvr]

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And who do conservative Catholics (pro-lifers) vote for? Sinn Fein is rather secularist, even socialist, isn't it? The SDLP doesn't seem to be socially conservative either.

Depends how they feel about the IRA. SF if they like it or don't care, SDLP if they abhor it.