Northern Ireland Assembly Elections: May 2017?

[YL]

So, where will be this election's Longford-Westmeath?

[YL]

Belfast South: I think there should be more Green than DUP transfers here, so SF, SDLP, DUP, UUP Alliance, Green 1 each
Belfast West: obviously SF 4, PBP 1.
Belfast East: looks like Alliance 2, DUP 2, UUP 1
Belfast North: looking like SF 2, DUP 2, SDLP 1.  I don't think the transfers will get the DUP's third candidate ahead of SF's second.
North Down: looks like DUP 2, Alliance 1, UUP 1, Green 1.
"Strangford": Transfers would have to go badly for the DUP for this not to be DUP 3, Alliance 1, UUP 1.
South Down: Depends on how much UUP transfers favour Alliance over the SDLP.  If they do by a bit, then SF 2, DUP 1, SDLP 1, Alliance 1.  That'd be a bit of a shock Alliance gain.
Lagan Valley: Nationalist and Green transfers favouring the UUP over the DUP makes me go for DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1.
Upper Bann: Depends on Alliance transfers helping the SDLP, but if they do then it'd be DUP 2, SF 1, SDLP 1, UUP 1.
Newry & Armagh: done, SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1.
Mid Ulster: Hard to see anything other than SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1.
Fermanagh & South Tyrone: currently recounting apparently.  My guess would be SF 3, DUP 1, UUP 1 but it depends how the recount goes and whether Nationalist (and Alliance) transfers help the UUP.
West Tyrone: looks like SF 3, DUP 1, SDLP 1.
Foyle: looks like SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1, so Eamonn McCann has lost.
East Derry: looks like SF 2, DUP 2, Ind Sugden 1.
North Antrim: looks like DUP 2, SF 1, TUV 1, UUP 1.
South Antrim: looks like DUP 2, SF 1, UUP 1, Alliance 1.
East Antrim: looks like DUP 2, UUP 2, Alliance 1.

[YL]

... which would give DUP 28, SF 28, UUP 1211, SDLP 9, Alliance 89, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

(But I may have been a bit optimistic for the UUP in FST and for the SDLP in Upper Bann.)

[YL]

That's should be the Alliance not the UUP in Belfast South.

Thanks; corrected.

[YL]

In Upper Bann Dolores Kelly (SDLP) has now overtaken Nuala Toman (SF) on those Alliance transfers, so I'm now confident of my prediction there.

[YL]

South Down update: the UUP transfers put Jim Wells (DUP) over the line, so most of the votes will be transferred again as Wells's surplus.

Quota 8,234

Ennis (SF) elected and surplus transferred
Bradley (SDLP) elected and surplus transferred
Hazzard (SF) elected, surplus of 593 to transfer
Wells (DUP) elected, surplus of 2,587 (from UUP) to transfer
McGrath (SDLP) 6,632
Brown (Alliance) 6,008

[YL]

FST update: the SDLP transfers elected two SF candidates but also helped the UUP against the DUP.

Quota 8,711

Foster (DUP) elected, surplus of 34 to transfer
Gildernew (SF) elected, surplus of 674 (from SDLP) to transfer
Dolan (SF) elected, surplus of 217 (from SDLP) to transfer
Barton (UUP) 8,334
Morrow (DUP) 7,405
Lynch (SF) 7,174

Looks like 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP.

[YL]

Updates:

FST, Belfast West, East Antrim all finished.

South Down: latest count suggests SDLP will hold on rather than lose to Alliance

South Belfast: Bailey (Green) now ahead of both DUP candidates.  Alliance, SDLP and UUP votes still to transfer.  I'd be very surprised if Bailey didn't make it.

Lagan Valley: Palmer (UUP) was eliminated too soon to benefit from SDLP transfers, so UUP won't get a second here.  Presumably her transfers will now put both DUP candidates ahead of the SDLP, giving 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance.

So my prediction is now DUP 29, SF 28, UUP 10, SDLP 10, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

[YL]

South Down finished as expected, SF 2, SDLP 2, DUP 1.

Strangford was surprisingly close, with the SDLP picking up a lot of UUP transfers to nearly grab the last seat off the DUP, but the DUP did get three in the end.  If the same happens in Lagan Valley then the SDLP could have a chance...

Also West Tyrone, Mid Ulster, South Antrim all finished as expected.

[YL]

In East Derry, Dallat (SDLP) increased his lead over McQuillan (DUP) on UUP transfers, so McQuillan is now eliminated.  The only transfers left are Unionist (and thousands of them) and Dallat is only 59 behind Ó Hoisín (SF) so this now looks like DUP 2, SF 1, SDLP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

[YL]

SDLP gain seat in Lagan Valley!  DUP 2, UUP 1, Alliance 1, SDLP 1

UUP transfers didn't break to the DUP to anything like the extent they usually do.

[YL]

East Derry finished DUP 2 SF 1 SDLP 1 Ind Sugden 1.

So assuming the Greens do get a seat in Belfast South and nothing weird happens in Belfast East or Foyle it's going to end up as DUP 28, SF 27, SDLP 12, UUP 10, Alliance 8, Green 2, TUV 1, PBP 1, Ind Sugden 1.

Based on that, there'd only be one more Unionist than Nationalist in the Assembly.  (Sugden is Ind U.)  And the DUP and TUV would be below 30 which means they can't launch a Petition of Concern to block same sex marriage.

[YL]

Its interesting that while early on in the count everyone was doing down the SDLP calling it a terrible result; yet they've came out with the same number of seats in an Assembly that has been made smaller.  Just goes to show that we can't judge these things until all of the votes are counted...

Indeed, they did fine in the end, thanks to doing well on transfers (especially from the UUP) but the South Down and Foyle results, being comfortably beaten by Sinn Féin in both and having a scare from Alliance for their second seat in the former, must be worrying.  They still have a reasonable niche in STV elections but if people vote like they did on Thursday in a Westminster election (which they won't, but still...) they'd be facing wipeout.

The UUP were really hit in Nationalist-leaning areas by the reduction from six to five seats in each constituency.  Last year, four constituencies elected four Nationalists and two Unionists, in each case one DUP and UUP each, and in all of those four this time it was down to one Unionist and it was the UUP seat which disappeared.

[YL]

Is the DUP or any unionist party in general quite moderate economically, yet loyalist, and sociall conservative, so it gets the vote of the protestant working class. Or is it economically right-wing and gets vote due to tribal loyalty.

On the left-right spectrum does economic ideology correspond with that, with the TUV being most economically right-wing, then the DUP, then the UUP then the Alliance etc.

The DUP could be described like that.  They also have strong Protestant fundamentalist tendencies; they're the one party represented in the UK Parliament where Young Earth Creationism is widespread, and are very much against abortion, gay rights etc.  Think of a fundamentalist Protestant version of Fianna Fáil.

The UUP is historically the establishment Unionist party and has a more middle class support base.  However, they keep trying to find different ways to distinguish themselves from the DUP.  Under Empey, they tried a formal alliance with the Tories, under Elliott, they seemed to be trying to be more hardline than the DUP, and under Nesbitt they were trying to be moderates (e.g. suggesting transfers to the SDLP).  If they had a consistent position it'd probably be economically to the right of the DUP, but it's hard to make a case for real economic right-wing policies in a place like Northern Ireland, which may be partly why the alliance with the Tories flopped.  They have had Labour-aligned MPs, including the now independent Sylvia Hermon who left because of that alliance.

The TUV is a splinter group of the DUP who think that the DUP have gone soft.

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SF - Catholics (meaning here people of a Catholic background rather than any strong religiosity)
SDLP - Catholics who aren't prepared to forget what Sinn Féin's friends used to get up to; middle class intellectual tendency.  (A nickname is the "Schoolteachers', Doctors' and Lawyers' Party".)
DUP - Protestants, especially (but not exclusively) working class and fundamentalists
TUV - Bible Belt nutters
UUP - middle class Protestants, Anglicans, people who see themselves as Unionists but don't like the DUP's bigotry and fundamentalism
Alliance - anti-sectarians, mainly fairly middle class (but not exclusively, otherwise they wouldn't have won Belfast East in 2010), Catholics in areas where they're a small minority.  Virtually non-existent west of the Bann.
Greens - similar to Alliance I think, and to Green parties in other places.   They have MLAs in North Down and Belfast South which says something.  If I had to move to Northern Ireland I'd live in Belfast South.
NI Tories - basically nobody!

I tend to assume PBP's base is working class -- there aren't that many middle-class intellectuals in West Belfast -- but I don't really know.  BTW they don't designate as "Nationalist".

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DUP, TUV and PBP were pro-Brexit, the rest were against.