How many 2018 House retirements will there be?

[progressive85]

And who do you think will retire?

Here is my list of possibilities:

Sean Duffy (to run against Tammy Baldwin)
Evan Jenkins (to run against Joe Manchin)
Peter Welch (to run against Phil Scott)
Jason Chaffetz (to run if Orrin Hatch retires)
Jimmy Duncan (been there for a while)
Peter DeFazio
Ann Wagner (to run against CLaire McCaskill)
Collin Peterson (to retire for good)
Pete Visclosky (long stay in DC)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (retiring)
Zoe Lofgren (had long run)
Alcee Hastings (time for new blood)
Don Young (been there since 1972)

Bob Corker (to run for Governor)
Dianne Feinstein (retiring)

[Zioneer]

I've heard that Trump may pick UT-02 Congressman Chris Stewart for Secretary of the Air Force, so that could potentially be an open seat as well.

[Nyvin]

I'd like to think John Conyers finally retires.   He's 87.

Colin Peterson is actually only 72, which is supposedly "young" for retirement nowadays (for politicians at least).   Diane Feinstein being 83 for example.  

I really doubt Peter Defazio will retire anytime soon, he's in pretty good health, "only" 69, and there isn't any real openings in Oregon for higher offices anytime soon.    Same goes for Ros-Lehtinen.

[PAK Man]

Jan Schakowsky in my home district of IL-09 is a possibility, but I suspect with Trump becoming president she'll stick around.

I could see Trump picking Steve King for some position, or running for another office, but he'll likely just stick around.

[mds32]

House (8R-6D)
Alcee Hastings
Ann Wagner (to run against Claire McCaskill)
Bobby Rush
Don Young
Evan Jenkins (to run against Joe Manchin)
John Shimkus
Kevin Cramer (to run against Heidi Heitkamp)
Kristi Noem
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Pat Tiberi (to run agaisnt Sherrod Brown)
Peter DeFazio
Pete Visclosky
Susan Brooks (to run against Joe Donnelly)
Zoe Lofgren

Senate (2D-1R)
Ben Cardin
Dianne Feinstein
Orrin Hatch

[I’m not Stu]

Probably 11-25 House retirements. I can't name most of them, but I can guess a few.
2018 House retirements:
Kevin Cramer
John Conyers
Luke Messer
Don Young
Pat Tiberi

I think there will be at least 4 Senate retrements.
2018 Senate Retirements:
Feinstein
Hatch
Cardin
Menendez

[Heisenberg]

Probably 11-25 House retirements. I can't name most of them, but I can guess a few.
2018 House retirements:
Kevin Cramer
John Conyers
Luke Messer
Don Young
Pat Tiberi

I think there will be at least 4 Senate retrements.
2018 Senate Retirements:
Feinstein
Hatch
Cardin
Menendez

If Conyers announces his retirement, I think Don Young sticks around for one last term. I think he's waiting to be Dean of the House (even though it's just ceremonial).

[KingSweden]

Somebody not on anyone's radar (except I called this in EOTNM) retired today. Sam Johnson in TX-3 is not running for reelection in 2018

[Wiz in Wis]

Somebody not on anyone's radar (except I called this in EOTNM) retired today. Sam Johnson in TX-3 is not running for reelection in 2018

In a normal year, this is a safe seat for the Rs. Maybe some interest in the primary. If Trump bombs, this could get competitive, with the right D.

[KingSweden]

Somebody not on anyone's radar (except I called this in EOTNM) retired today. Sam Johnson in TX-3 is not running for reelection in 2018

In a normal year, this is a safe seat for the Rs. Maybe some interest in the primary. If Trump bombs, this could get competitive, with the right D.

Yeah, it'd be a stretch. I imagine State Sen. Van Taylor (R) locks this up

[Figueira]

About 40ish Reps have retired in each of the last three House elections, so 25-40 and 40+ are the best guesses. Voted 40+. I haven't actually gone through and thought about who could retire, though.

[Figueira]

Jim Bridenstine and Sam Johnson are already retiring, as are Michelle Lujan Grisham and Kristi Noem (to run for Governor of their respective states).

[Figueira]

Also I don't see Welch running against Phil Scott, unless Scott messes up badly.