Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 23, 2017, 10:21:48 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Election 2016 predictions are now open!.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  2018: How many Senate seats do Democrats pick up?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Poll
Question: How many seats do Democrats pick up in 2018?
0   -25 (43.9%)
1-2   -30 (52.6%)
3+   -2 (3.5%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 57

Author Topic: 2018: How many Senate seats do Democrats pick up?  (Read 3144 times)
bronz4141
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6119
United States


View Profile
« on: January 11, 2017, 06:28:23 pm »
Ignore

How many Senate seats do the Democrats pick up in 2018? Do they pick up Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and maybe even Utah?
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5121


Political Matrix
E: 10.00, S: 8.96

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 06:30:00 pm »
Ignore

They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.
Logged

Far-right social, fiscal, and neo-conservative.  Semi-moderate on immigration.  Abortion is murder!

2017/18 Key Endorsements:

AL-SEN: Roy Moore (R)
VA-GOV: Ed Gillespie (R)
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn (R)
TN-GOV: Diane Black (R)
TN-7: Mark Green (R)
FL-SEN: Rick Scott (R)
MI-SEN: #NeverStabenowNeverKidRock
WI-GOV: Scott Walker (R)
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz (R)
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott (R)
AZ-SEN: Kelli Ward (R)
CA-GOV: Travis Allen (R) (why not?)
OH-SEN: Josh Mandel (R)
TN-4: Primary challenge
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10063
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2017, 06:36:14 pm »
Ignore

Probably one, maybe two if they're lucky. But they will still probably experience a net loss.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14630
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2017, 06:40:13 pm »
Ignore

0 or 1 (my guess would be either NV or AZ, but more likely NV), but still a net loss.
Logged

2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
͡◔ ᴥ ͡◔
darthebearnc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7962


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2017, 06:46:44 pm »
Ignore

They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5438


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2017, 07:45:45 pm »
Ignore

They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.

Yeah, not gonna happen with Trump as President.  If Dems can hold the net loss to two or three, they should be quite happy.
Logged
bronz4141
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6119
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2017, 07:53:29 pm »
Ignore

They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.

Yeah, not gonna happen with Trump as President.  If Dems can hold the net loss to two or three, they should be quite happy.

I don't know. Some analysts think that the GOP could have a supermajority in the Senate in 2018. They can pick up OH, MO, IN, MT, WV, ND.
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5438


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2017, 08:09:29 pm »
Ignore

They will almost certainly lose seats in 2018, given the map.  The big question is whether or not Republicans can get a filibuster-proof majority.

I honestly can't see the GOP netting eight.

Yeah, not gonna happen with Trump as President.  If Dems can hold the net loss to two or three, they should be quite happy.

I don't know. Some analysts think that the GOP could have a supermajority in the Senate in 2018. They can pick up OH, MO, IN, MT, WV, ND.

I don't think Ohio will flip with Trump as President.  Trump will also allow Tester, Manchin, and Heithkemp independently without the weight of a Dem President.  Donnelly and McCaskill, however, I see as almost sure losers.
Logged
xīngkěruž
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11262
Taiwan


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2017, 08:45:05 pm »
Ignore

My guess right now is 1, but it'll almost certainly be 0-2 (not as in net gain, but how many individual seats held by Republicans that they manage to pick up.)
Logged

Game Moderator 1184AZ
1184AZ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3324


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2017, 09:06:59 pm »
Ignore

Nevada and maybe if it is a good night Arizona. Everything else is basically off the table for pickup opportunities, except for possibly Texas(still a stretch). Though I expect Democrats to loose Indiana, Missouri and probably North Dakota at the very least.   
Logged
Hindsight is 2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2333
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2017, 09:30:43 pm »
Ignore

Can we "forget the map" Brown is not likely in danger in OH or Machin in WV or Tester in MT just cause Trump won those states doesn't mean they are in trouble case in point Obama wins Mass by like 20 in 08 then in 10 Brown wins Kennedy's seat there isn't a transition. In all likely hood the dems are looking at 2-3 seats in trouble in MO, IN, and ND as the people there are not overly popular while the GOP has 2 seats in trouble NV & AZ (maybe 3 with UT but that's due to third party rumblings)
Logged
Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
unempprof
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3505


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2017, 09:34:09 pm »
Ignore

Can we "forget the map" Brown is not likely in danger in OH or Machin in WV or Tester in MT just cause Trump won those states doesn't mean they are in trouble case in point Obama wins Mass by like 20 in 08 then in 10 Brown wins Kennedy's seat there isn't a transition. In all likely hood the dems are looking at 2-3 seats in trouble in MO, IN, and ND as the people there are not overly popular while the GOP has 2 seats in trouble NV & AZ (maybe 3 with UT but that's due to third party rumblings)

I tend to agree.  I think the Democrats will do way better than people are expecting in 2018.
Logged

Healthcare is a right, not a moneymaking business - Bernie Sanders

American Exceptionalism: The only industrialized nation in which health care is not a universal right, but gun ownership is.
MarkD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 659
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2017, 09:40:28 pm »
Ignore

Counting King and Sanders as if they are Democrats (because they caucus with them and very, very often vote with them), there are 25 Democratic-held seats up and only 8 Republican seats up in 2018. I think it as inevitable that Democrats will have a net loss of seats.
Logged

Rewrite the 14th Amendment!
States should have clear guidelines what laws they cannot pass, and the federal courts should have far less discretion in choosing what laws to strike down. Take away from the federal courts the power to define liberty and the power to define equality. Those are legislative powers and should be in the hands of legislators. Rewrite Section 1 of the 14th to make its meaning narrower and clearer.
AKCreative
Nyvin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2556
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2017, 10:07:47 pm »
Ignore

I really don't think the Republicans will pick up 8 seats,  that's pretty much unheard of for a President's party midterm.
Logged
Vosem
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9719
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: -6.26

P P

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2017, 11:07:37 pm »
Ignore

I would say the median of likely results is R+4 (this comes from a result where every state votes exactly as they did presidentially, but you add 5% to the Democrats to simulate a midterm backlash), and any result gets progressively less likely the further from that you deviate.

Incidentally, the same method gets you D+30 in the House, which is a (very) narrow takeover. Would be hilarious watching Speaker Pelosi interact with a huge, once-in-a-generation Republican Senate majority (would be the largest since pre-Reagan if the 2018 result is R+4). And the Trump White House, of course.
Logged

I will NOT be accepting any result other than a victory for America's next President, Governor Gary Earl Johnson Angry
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8959


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2017, 11:35:12 pm »
Ignore

Assuming this is just gain without factoring in losses, 1-2. I think Democrats will probably pick up Nevada and/or Arizona. 0 is sadly more likely than 3.
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14630
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2017, 10:17:53 am »
Ignore

Tester and Brown aren't safe just because Trump is president (and neither are several other Democratic Senators). I see Democrats are still as overconfident as they were before the election.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2017, 10:19:53 am by MT Treasurer »Logged

2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8959


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2017, 10:29:22 am »
Ignore

Tester and Brown aren't safe just because Trump is president (and neither are several other Democratic Senators). I see Democrats are still as overconfident as they were before the election.

They're not "safe," but where are Republicans getting these 8 seats? I guess the five Romney states plus OH and WI bringing them to 7, but then they have to pick up one of PA, FL, VA, and NJ (I think those are the only others that are really in play, although some others might flip if it's a real wave). And they need two of those if Democrats get NV.

So I'll admit that it's possible. But I'd say it's pretty unlikely. I'd say the "big question" is whether they can lock Democrats out of a realistic chance to win the Senate in 2020. (They basically did the equivalent in 2016.)
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

MT Treasurer
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14630
United States


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: January 12, 2017, 10:33:22 am »
Ignore

They're not "safe," but where are Republicans getting these 8 seats? I guess the five Romney states plus OH and WI bringing them to 7, but then they have to pick up one of PA, FL, VA, and NJ (I think those are the only others that are really in play, although some others might flip if it's a real wave). And they need two of those if Democrats get NV.

I don't think VA and NJ will be competitive. Maybe ME and MI could be sleeper races. But yeah, PA and FL seem like good targets. Still, it won't be easy for the GOP and I'm not saying that they will get 60 seats in 2018 (even though that is much more likely than Democrats retaking the Senate).
Logged

2018 "Endorsements":

MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale (R)
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley (R)
WV-SEN: Evan Jenkins (R)
NH-GOV: Stefany Shaheen (D)
NH-02: Annie Kuster (D)

Wulfric seems to just LOVE Tester.
Klartext89
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 510


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: January 12, 2017, 11:00:01 am »
Ignore

LOL.

If it's a Democratic year, they'll only lose net 5 because they pick up Nevada. ^^
Logged

Don't follow the leftist, manipulating media - follow your brain.
The Left hates democracy, free speech and tolerance.
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8959


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: January 12, 2017, 11:08:19 am »
Ignore

I think the big question is not how much people hate Trump, but how polarized people are. It's possible that even in an absolute Democratic tsunami year, people in WV and MO and places like that simply aren't willing to vote a Democrat to federal office. However it's also possible that that isn't the case. We'll wait and see, but my point is that Trump's popularity or lack thereof is not the only factor at stake here.
Logged

Note: I am not actually British.

Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27882
Germany


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: January 12, 2017, 11:13:17 am »
Ignore

They'll probably lose a few seats, if they're lucky they'll hold even.
Logged

LabourJersey
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 279
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2017, 11:45:12 am »
Ignore

I think the big question is not how much people hate Trump, but how polarized people are. It's possible that even in an absolute Democratic tsunami year, people in WV and MO and places like that simply aren't willing to vote a Democrat to federal office. However it's also possible that that isn't the case. We'll wait and see, but my point is that Trump's popularity or lack thereof is not the only factor at stake here.

I agree, I think polarization has increased so much over the past 10-15 years that certain states are going to be insulated.
I think it's quite possible that Trump's approval could be 25% as of November 2018 (I suppose it can also be 50%, and one can't predict the future but 25 is more likely), but that 25% could be concentrated in a few states, some of which have Dem senators up for re-election.
Logged
King Louis XV
windjammer
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12449
France


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: January 12, 2017, 12:04:52 pm »
Ignore

From -1 to +1
Logged

Quote
Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
Mike Pence
The walrus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1178


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: January 12, 2017, 06:13:40 pm »
Ignore

The Democrats gain 8 seats through wizardry, completing the trend of Class 1 to 1000% Democratic
Logged

If you support any of NEOS,D66,FDP,Lib Dems, or En Marche, fite me irl

Endorsement list:
Illinois Governor: Daniel Biss
Texas Senator: Beto O'Rourke
Ohio Senator: Sherrod Brown
Vermont Senator: Bernie Sanders
California Senate: De Leon

IceAgeComing 5:26 PM
he's Bob Dole!
its obvious

Join My Timeline: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=274512.0

Wulfric is a great guy whose endorsements matter
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines