UK local by-elections, 2017

[Tintrlvr]

Previews here: https://britainelects.com/2017/12/06/previews-07-dec-2017/

Don't have figures for the results, but the results were:

LD GAIN North Devon, Newport from Con
Lab HOLD Enfield, Enfield Highway

[Leftbehind]

Previews here: https://britainelects.com/2017/12/06/previews-07-dec-2017/

Don't have figures for the results, but the results were:

LD GAIN North Devon, Newport from Con
Lab HOLD Enfield, Enfield Highway

Presumed ObserverIE would be posting them, but just noticed he hasn't posted his customary Holy Word/placeholder post, so to fill in and hopefully not step on his toes:-

Enfield, Enfield Highway

Lab 69.8% (+23.1)
Con 26.7% (+7.4)
Grn  3.4% (-6.0)

North Devon, Newport

Lib 38.8% (+7.1)
Con 37.1% (-2.8.)
Grn 15.8% (-12.6)
Lab  8.3% (+8.3)

Lab hold Enfield Highway
Lib Dem gain Newport from Con

[ObserverIE]

Previews here: https://britainelects.com/2017/12/06/previews-07-dec-2017/

Don't have figures for the results, but the results were:

LD GAIN North Devon, Newport from Con
Lab HOLD Enfield, Enfield Highway

Presumed ObserverIE would be posting them, but just noticed he hasn't posted his customary Holy Word/placeholder post, so to fill in and hopefully not step on his toes:-

Sorry - was busy with work last night (corrections) so I didn't have time to enter them in and didn't have access to my laptop today until this evening. I use average vote per party so my change figures will be somewhat different. ("Don't use smileys" in Additional Options prevents the problem with a final 8 before a round bracket getting messed up.)

North Devon, Newport

Lib 38.8 (+9.0)
Con 37.1 (-6.0)
Green 15.8 (-11.3)
Lab 8.3 (+8.3)

Enfield, Enfield Highway

Lab 69.8 (+22.5)
Con 26.7 (+9.3)
Green 3.4 (-6.4)

Lib Dem gain Newport from Con

[Leftbehind]

Ah, that's a useful thing to know. Yeah, I'm far too lazy for avg vote changes.

[ObserverIE]

Double helping of Holy Word in the run-up to Christmas, appropriately enough.

First helping here.

Exeter, Newtown and St Leonard's

Lab 54.6 (+5.3)
Con 26.8 (+3.4)
Lib Dem 9.4 (+1.8)
Green 7.2 (-3.9)
UKIP 2.1 (-3.3)

Waverley, Godalming Central and Ockford

Lib Dem 37.8 (+37.8)
Con 35.0 (-4.8)
Lab 21.5 (-5.4)
Green 5.7 (+5.7)

Lib Dem gain Godalming Central and Ockford

[parochial boy]

There does seem to be a pattern of strong Lib Dem results emerging here, certainly better than national polling would suggest.

I doubt that the national polling is going to be dramatically wrong with regards to where the Lib Dems are at. So, acknowledging local factor and all, is there an argument to be made that the kind of person who will vote at a local by-election (disproportionately middle aged, middle class and politically engaged) happens to correlate to the kind of person who, in 2017 at least, is more likely to vote Lib Dem?

[ObserverIE]

Main course of Holy Word here with all the trimmings.

Salford, Langworthy

Lab 58.0 (+8.9)
Con 17.7 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 12.1 (+12.1)
Green 6.9 (+0.9)
Ind 5.3

Barnsley, Rockingham

Lab 66.6 (+15.0)
Con 19.3 (+10.9)
Lib Dem 14.1 (+14.1)

Wigan, Shevington with Lower Ground

Lab 43.4 (+3.4)
Shev Ind 31.3 (+5.0)
Con 22.8 (+11.5)
Green 1.7 (-1.9)
Lib Dem 0.9 (+0.9)

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Newchapel

Con 43.3 (-6.3)
Lab 39.5 (-10.9)
Ind 17.2

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Bradwell

Lab 50.7 (-3.1)
Con 46.1 (+27.4)
Lib Dem 3.2 (-0.1)

Torbay, Watcombe

Lib Dem 57.5 (+13.8)
Con 31.1 (+7.9)
Lab 10.6 (-6.3)
Green 0.8 (-5.9)

Welwyn Hatfield, Handside

Lib Dem 52.4 (+16.9)
Con 32.8 (-9.3)
Lab 12.3 (-3.4)
Green 2.4 (-4.3)

Torridge, Westward Ho!

Ind Laws 46.9
Con 18.7 (-21.5)
UKIP 13.2 (+13.2)
Lib Dem 9.2 (+9.2)
Ind Mason 6.9
Lab 5.1 (+5.1)

Con gain Newchapel from Lab
Lib Dem hold Handside
Ind gain Westward Ho! from Con

[Leftbehind]

There does seem to be a pattern of strong Lib Dem results emerging here, certainly better than national polling would suggest.

I doubt that the national polling is going to be dramatically wrong with regards to where the Lib Dems are at. So, acknowledging local factor and all, is there an argument to be made that the kind of person who will vote at a local by-election (disproportionately middle aged, middle class and politically engaged) happens to correlate to the kind of person who, in 2017 at least, is more likely to vote Lib Dem?

Absolutely. Low turnout disproportionately hurts Labour and these by-elections have terrible turnouts. There's also the fact that local Lib Dems can attract votes from pro-Brexit Tories who'd trust them to protect their local services moreso than the Tories in a manner that the national party can't. Finally in many places they're best placed to be the populist vehicle to oppose an unpopular council measure in a way the Tories (who many Labour voters won't countenance for) or Labour (vice versa) aren't.