UK local by-elections, 2017
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #75 on: September 14, 2017, 09:05:36 AM »

That's an odd way of looking at things given Meale and Winnick had both been underperforming for years, which probably wasn't unconnected with them both being regarded in their constituencies as sh!t MPs.* Obviously the specific climate of the election was responsible for turning underperformance into defeat, but...

*Unfairly in the case of Winnick as he was an outstanding parliamentarian but if voters would prefer someone more locally active then that's democracy. Meale, though, was a thoroughgoing nonentity everywhere.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #76 on: September 14, 2017, 07:27:26 PM »

Tonight's results:

Trafford, Bucklow-St Martins

Lab 64.7 (+26.3)
Con 28.1 (+11.0)
UKIP 4.0 (-9.3)
Green 2.0 (-2.5)
Lib Dem 1.1 (-1.8)

Mid Devon, Westexe

Con 36.4 (+2.9)
Ind 23.4 (+9.5)
Lab 21.4 (+8.4)
Lib Dem 18.8 (+18.8)

West Dorset, Lyme Regis and Charmouth

Ind 52.3
Con 33.3 (-16.2)
Lab 14.4 (+14.4)

Lab win Bucklow-St Martins held by Con elected as Lab
Con gain Westexe from UKIP
Ind gain Lyme Regis and Charmouth from Con
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #77 on: September 21, 2017, 08:27:10 PM »

This week's Holy Word is here.

Chesterfield, Holmebrook

Lib Dem 50.0 (+22.1)
Lab 42.6 (-8.8)
Con 6.1 (-7.4)
CANDI 1.4 (+1.4)

Waveney, Oulton Broad

Con 50.1 (+11.4)
Lab 34.0 (+4.8)
UKIP 10.8 (-12.6)
Lib Dem 5.1 (+5.1)

Oadby and Wigston, Oadby Uplands

Lib Dem 39.0 (+3.3)
Lab 34.5 (+1.1)
Con 26.5 (-4.4)

Lib Dem gain Holmebrook from Lab
Lib Dem gain Oadby Uplands from Lab
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #78 on: September 28, 2017, 11:11:27 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2017, 08:46:12 PM by ObserverIE »

Holy Word here.

Harlow, Toddbrook

Lab 52.2 (+1.7)
Con 36.1 (+12.2)
UKIP 7.3 (-17.4)
Green 3.0 (+3.0)
Lib Dem 1.4 (+1.4)

Lancaster, Halton-with-Aughton

Lab 27.4 (+18.0)
Green 27.2 (-0.9)
Con 26.2 (+2.0)
Lib Dem 19.3 (+19.3)

Barnsley, Kingstone

Lab 57.5 (-2.4)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+19.2)
Con 8.8 (-3.5)
Green 6.8 (-4.1)
BNP 5.8 (-5.2)
Demos 1.9 (+1.9)

East Staffordshire, Stretton

Con 47.2 (-1.6)
Ind 28.2
Lab 19.2 (+0.4)
UKIP 3.2 (-20.9)
Lib Dem 2.2 (+2.2)

Harrogate, Washburn

Con 74.5 (-0.5)
Lab 12.5 (-0.9)
Green 9.0 (+9.0)
Yorks 3.9 (+3.9)

St Edmundsbury, Chedburgh

Con 65.8
Lab 22.7
Lib Dem 11.5

St Edmundsbury, Hundon

Con 80.6 (+17.2)
Lib Dem 19.4 (+19.4)

Northampton, Eastfield

Lab 50.5 (+13.5)
Con 29.5 (-4.1)
Lib Dem 20.0 (+16.7)

Northampton, Nene Valley

Con 52.5 (+11.8)
Lab 22.4 (+7.6)
Lib Dem 19.2 (+9.0)
Green 5.9 (+5.9)

Durham, Trimdon and Thornley

Lab 65.4 (+15.0)
Ind 20.0
Lib Dem 6.7 (-2.7)
Con 6.4 (-13.1)
Green 1.6 (+1.6)

Breckland, Thetford Priory

Lab 57.7 (+29.5)
Con 29.5 (-4.4)
UKIP 12.8 (-25.1)

Highland, Tain and Easter Ross

Ind Rhind 49.4 (+33.1)
SNP 23.9 (+0.0)
Lib Dem 14.5 (-5.0)
Con 9.1 (-6.9)
Ind Holdsworth 2.7
Lbt 0.5 (+0.5)

Ind R
1266
1267
1290
SNP
612
616
634
Lib Dem
372
376
387
Con
233
236
243
Ind H
68
69
Lbt
13

Lab gain Halton-with-Aughton from Ind
Lab gain Thetford Priory from Con
Ind gain Tain and Easter Ross from Lib Dem
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #79 on: October 05, 2017, 05:20:58 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2017, 09:03:11 AM by ObserverIE »

This week's Holy Word here.

Adur, Mash Barn

Lab 49.3 (+29.7)
Con 38.6 (+16.0)
Lib Dem 9.0 (-6.5)
Green 3.1 (+3.1)

Salford, Claremont

Lab 46.5 (-15.1)
Con 29.0 (+1.8)
Ind 11.1
Lib Dem 10.5 (+4.5)
Green 3.0 (-1.4)

Hertsmere, Borehamwood Kenilworth

Lab 37.8 (-8.5)
Con 33.7 (-20.0)
Lib Dem 14.2 (+14.2)
Ind 9.0
UKIP 5.3 (+5.3)

Cheshire East, Crewe East

Lab 60.7 (+15.1)
Con 28.0 (+6.4)
UKIP 8.2 (-13.9)
Green 3.1 (-7.6)

Warwick, Stoneleigh and Cubbington

Con 52.6 (+12.0)
Lab 32.6 (+17.0)
Lib Dem 11.8 (+11.8)
Green 3.0 (-7.9)

South Bucks, Burnham Lent Rise and Taplow

Con 65.9 (+27.0)
Lab 15.6 (-1.4)
Lib Dem 12.8 (+12.8)
Green 5.7 (-8.5)

Hinckley and Bosworth, Burbage Sketchley and Stretton

Con 39.0 (-3.7)
Lib Dem 37.3 (+7.9)
Lab 15.2 (+2.2)
UKIP 5.7 (-9.2)
Ind 2.7

Redcar and Cleveland, St Germain's

Lib Dem 38.4 (+9.0)
Lab 21.4 (+1.0)
Ind Lambert 15.2
Ind Jeffries 13.1
Con 10.1 (-3.1)
Green 1.8 (-9.3)

Lab gain Mash Barn from UKIP
Lab gain Borehamwood Kenilworth from Con
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #80 on: October 12, 2017, 07:04:55 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2017, 06:58:21 PM by ObserverIE »

Holy Word here.

Three Rivers, Oxhey Hall and Hayling

Lib Dem 41.3 (-6.5)
Con 28.3 (+2.7)
Lab 26.3 (+8.8)
UKIP 2.2 (-7.0)
Green 1.9 (+1.9)

Sheffield, Beighton

Lab 48.6 (+6.0)
Lib Dem 26.6 (+21.2)
Con 16.3 (-1.4)
UKIP 6.3 (-20.0)
Green 2.2 (-2.6)

Warrington, Chapelford and Old Hall

Lab 54.7 (+9.6)
Con 20.2 (+4.3)
Lib Dem 17.8 (-1.4)
UKIP 4.9 (-7.4)
Green 2.5 (-5.0)

Wakefield, Stanley and Outwood East

Lab 51.0 (+2.4)
Con 31.9 (+7.3)
Lib Dem 6.2 (+2.3)
Yorks 5.8 (+5.8)
UKIP 5.1 (-16.4)

Wyre, Rossall

Lab 50.1 (+11.9)
Con 35.1 (+5.1)
Ind 14.8

Ashfield, Hucknall North

Ashfield Ind 51.1 (+40.3)
Lab 24.2 (-5.8)
Con 20.4 (-10.8)
UKIP 2.5 (-17.4)
Lib Dem 1.8 (+1.8)

Aberdeenshire, Inverurie and District

Con 48.5 (+12.6)
SNP 33.3 (+5.7)
Lib Dem 8.6 (-3.2)
Lab 8.0 (+3.7)
Green 1.6 (+1.6)

Con
1672
1679
1715
1871
SNP
1146
1161
1234
1300
Lib Dem
295
309
412
Lab
276
290
Green
56

Tamworth, Bolehall

Lab 53.4 (+3.9)
Con 46.6 (+22.2)

Lib Dem gain Oxhey Hall and Hayling from Con
Ashfield Ind gain Hucknall North from Con
Con hold Inverurie and District
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #81 on: October 18, 2017, 09:44:52 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2017, 08:41:52 AM by ObserverIE »

Next installment of the Holy Word here.

Epping Forest, Lower Sheering

Con 80.9 (+11.0)
Lib Dem 19.1 (+19.1)

Wigan, Astley Mosley Common

Lab 46.0 (-5.3)
Con 35.9 (+11.4)
UKIP 11.0 (-13.2)
Lib Dem 4.3 (+4.3)
Green 2.7 (+2.7)

Lincoln, Carholme

Lab 63.4 (+4.5)
Con 25.3 (+6.2)
Green 5.7 (-6.8)
Lib Dem 5.6 (-3.9)

Hartlepool, Seaton

PHF 31.6 (+3.2)
Ind Little 28.3 (+2.1)
Lab 18.3 (+4.8)
Con 12.0 (+6.0)
UKIP 9.9 (-13.5)

Nottingham, Bulwell Forest

Lab 54.0 (+8.7)
Con 37.5 (+17.2)
UKIP 5.4 (-14.5)
Green 2.0 (-5.9)
Lib Dem 1.2 (-3.2)

Nottingham, Basford

Lab 68.2 (+19.3)
Con 19.7 (+2.4)
UKIP 5.8 (-11.4)
Green 3.9 (-9.7)
Lib Dem 2.4 (+2.4)

Nottingham, Bestwood

Lab 63.4 (+8.2)
UKIP 14.9 (-7.1)
Con 14.7 (-1.2)
Lib Dem 2.8 (+2.8)
Green 2.5 (-4.4)
Elvis 1.7 (+1.7)

Gravesham, Meopham North

Con 64.0 (+6.5)
Lib Dem 17.0 (+17.0)
Lab 13.8 (-4.8)
UKIP 5.2 (-18.8)

Putting Hartlepool First gain Seaton from Ind
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #82 on: October 25, 2017, 06:40:08 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2017, 08:46:44 AM by ObserverIE »

This week's Holy Word here.

Tameside, Droylesden East

Lab 60.3 (+8.9)
Con 32.7 (+23.6)
Lib Dem 3.6 (+3.6)
Green 3.4 (-2.5)

Charnwood, Loughborough Hastings

Lab 63.5 (+18.4) (676, 648)
Con 21.9 (-0.8) (228)
UKIP 8.3 (-9.4) (95, 79)
Green 6.3 (-8.2) (73, 58)

Herefordshire, Kings Acre

Con 38.5 (+38.5)
Ind Fenton 20.6
IOC 19.9 (-30.1)
Lib Dem 11.5 (-21.9)
Lab 9.6 (+9.6)

Derbyshire Dales, Ashbourne South

Con 46.2 (-6.4)
Lib Dem 31.2 (+31.2)
Lab 22.6 (-2.5)

Mid Sussex, East Grinstead Imberhorne

Con 58.5 (-1.2)
Lib Dem 22.3 (+22.3)
Lab 11.9 (-9.2)
Ind 7.3

Kirklees, Batley East

Lab 77.0 (+7.2)
Con 12.9 (+1.0)
Ind 4.1 (-6.1)
Lib Dem 4.0 (-1.0)
Green 2.0 (-1.1)

Con gain Kings Acre from It's Our County
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #83 on: November 01, 2017, 10:29:59 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2017, 08:23:08 AM by ObserverIE »

Next installment of the Holy Word here.

Copeland, Egremont South

Lab 52.4 (+12.3)
Con 47.6 (+20.2)

Arun, Aldwick West

Lib Dem 52.7 (+33.5)
Con 35.2 (-13.2)
Lab 8.2 (+8.2)
Green 4.0 (+4.0)

Sefton, Duke's

Lib Dem 56.0 (+10.9)
Con 26.3 (-1.6)
Lab 13.9 (+0.7)
UKIP 2.3 (-8.2)
Green 1.5 (-1.7)

North Devon, Braunton East

Lib Dem 37.1 (+2.0)
Green 31.3 (+12.6)
Con 18.2 (-17.8)
Lab 13.3 (+5.6)

Buckinghamshire, Beaconsfield

Con 81.3 (+11.2)
Lib Dem 18.7 (+2.4)

South Bucks, Beaconsfield North

Con 76.4 (-9.7)
Lib Dem 23.6 (+23.6)

Lib Dem gain Aldwick West from Con
Lib Dem gain Duke's from Con
Lib Dem gain Braunton East from Con
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #84 on: November 09, 2017, 08:15:22 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2017, 08:29:49 PM by ObserverIE »

Holy Word here.

High Peak, Limestone Peak

Con 53.7 (+3.4)
Lab 27.4 (+0.7)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)
Green 7.0 (+7.0)

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 48.9 (+1.1)
Lab 28.2 (+10.7)
Lib Dem 15.9 (+6.3)
Green 7.0 (-10.0)

Camden, Gospel Oak (changes in italics since May 2017 by-election)

Lab 57.5 (+9.5) (+7.3)
Lib Dem 25.7 (+19.2) (+5.6)
Con 15.2 (-1.2) (-2.7)
Eng Dem 1.6 (+1.6) (+1.6)

Fareham, Stubbington

Lib Dem 55.2 (+25.1)
Con 35.8 (+5.7)
UKIP 5.4 (-29.6)
Lab 3.5 (-1.3)

Flintshire, Buckley Bistre West

Lab 53.9 (+10.4)
Ind Hutchinson 14.9
Ind Teire 11.7
Lib Dem 11.5 (-26.8)
Con 8.0 (+8.0)

Lib Dem gain Stubbington from Con elected as UKIP
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« Reply #85 on: November 14, 2017, 02:19:19 PM »

Holy Word here.

High Peak, Limestone Peak

Con 53.7 (+3.4)
Lab 27.4 (+0.7)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)
Green 7.0 (+7.0)

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 48.9 (+1.1)
Lab 28.2 (+10.7)
Lib Dem 15.9 (+6.3)
Green 7.0 (-10.0)

Camden, Gospel Oak (changes in italics since May 2017 by-election)

Lab 57.5 (+9.5) (+7.3)
Lib Dem 25.7 (+19.2) (+5.6)
Con 15.2 (-1.2) (-2.7)
Eng Dem 1.6 (+1.6) (+1.6)

Fareham, Stubbington

Lib Dem 55.2 (+25.1)
Con 35.8 (+5.7)
UKIP 5.4 (-29.6)
Lab 3.5 (-1.3)

Flintshire, Buckley Bistre West

Lab 53.9 (+10.4)
Ind Hutchinson 14.9
Ind Teire 11.7
Lib Dem 11.5 (-26.Cool
Con 8.0 (+8.0)

Lib Dem gain Stubbington from Con elected as UKIP

Met that councillor - Christopher Wood - in the 2015 GE campaign down Gosport High Street. The first ever UKIPer I met who had some understanding of libertarianism. Wonder what caused him to step down.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #86 on: November 14, 2017, 04:42:35 PM »

Holy Word here.

High Peak, Limestone Peak

Con 53.7 (+3.4)
Lab 27.4 (+0.7)
Lib Dem 11.9 (+11.9)
Green 7.0 (+7.0)

Wandsworth, Thamesfield

Con 48.9 (+1.1)
Lab 28.2 (+10.7)
Lib Dem 15.9 (+6.3)
Green 7.0 (-10.0)

Camden, Gospel Oak (changes in italics since May 2017 by-election)

Lab 57.5 (+9.5) (+7.3)
Lib Dem 25.7 (+19.2) (+5.6)
Con 15.2 (-1.2) (-2.7)
Eng Dem 1.6 (+1.6) (+1.6)

Fareham, Stubbington

Lib Dem 55.2 (+25.1)
Con 35.8 (+5.7)
UKIP 5.4 (-29.6)
Lab 3.5 (-1.3)

Flintshire, Buckley Bistre West

Lab 53.9 (+10.4)
Ind Hutchinson 14.9
Ind Teire 11.7
Lib Dem 11.5 (-26.Cool
Con 8.0 (+8.0)

Lib Dem gain Stubbington from Con elected as UKIP

Met that councillor - Christopher Wood - in the 2015 GE campaign down Gosport High Street. The first ever UKIPer I met who had some understanding of libertarianism. Wonder what caused him to step down.

Taking a job at the Ministry for Defence, according to the Daily Echo.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #87 on: November 14, 2017, 04:48:46 PM »

Completely off topic, but that area of urban sprawl between Southampton and Portsmouth is, without a doubt, the most depressing part of the country
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #88 on: November 14, 2017, 05:45:56 PM »

Completely off topic, but that area of urban sprawl between Southampton and Portsmouth is, without a doubt, the most depressing part of the country

It's one of the few areas in England to have something of a New World* suburban feel. Except in a land of perpetual rain. And therefore so much worse.

*Or Dublin...
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« Reply #89 on: November 15, 2017, 04:30:10 PM »

Completely off topic, but that area of urban sprawl between Southampton and Portsmouth is, without a doubt, the most depressing part of the country

Being born and bred from that urban sprawl, I can confirm that is 100% true. The saving grace is that the countryside north of the M27 (Meon Valley/Winchester area) is a lovely succession of small villages and rustic pubs.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #90 on: November 16, 2017, 08:29:34 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2017, 11:19:04 AM by ObserverIE »

Holy Word here.

Fylde, Staining and Weeton

Con 73.0 (+11.2)
Lab 20.2 (-18.0)
Lib Dem 6.7 (+6.7)

West Lindsey, Sudbrooke

Con 69.6 (+0.7)
Lab 30.4 (+10.5)

Hartlepool, Victoria

Lab 53.1 (+1.9)
UKIP 36.0 (+6.4)
Con 10.9 (-1.0)

South Holland, Whaplode and Holbeach St John's

Con 78.0 (+21.6)
Lab 22.0 (+22.0)

Darlington, Mowden

Con 60.7 (+13.2)
Lab 26.5 (-2.6)
Lib Dem 10.3 (+10.3)
Green 2.4 (-5.4)

Darlington, Red Hall and Lingfield

Lab 44.8 (-1.6)
Con 41.4 (+13.0)
FB 8.3 (+8.3)
Green 3.6 (-9.3)
Lib Dem 2.0 (-10.3)

Eden, Penrith North

Lib Dem 45.2 (+3.5)
Con 31.2 (-1.1)
Lab 16.6 (-9.4)
Green 7.0 (+7.0)

Chiltern, Penn and Coleshill

Con 80.6
Lib Dem 19.4

Waveney, Kirkley

Lab 47.8 (+12.6)
Con 27.7 (+9.9)
Lib Dem 10.7 (+10.7)
UKIP 10.0 (-11.1)
Green 3.8 (-5.8)

Waveney, St Margaret's

Con 41.7 (+13.4)
Lab 35.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 10.2 (-17.8)
Lib Dem 7.5 (+7.5)
Green 5.6 (-2.0)

Con gain St Margaret's from Lab
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vileplume
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« Reply #91 on: November 18, 2017, 06:53:59 AM »

Holy Word here.

Fylde, Staining and Weeton

Con 73.0 (+11.2)
Lab 20.2 (-18.0)
Lib Dem 6.7 (+6.7)

West Lindsey, Sudbrooke

Con 69.6 (+0.7)
Lab 30.4 (+10.5)

Hartlepool, Victoria

Lab 53.1 (+1.9)
UKIP 36.0 (+6.4)
Con 10.9 (-1.0)

South Holland, Whaplode and Holbeach St John's

Con 78.0 (+21.6)
Lab 22.0 (+22.0)

Darlington, Mowden

Con 60.7 (+13.2)
Lab 26.5 (-2.6)
Lib Dem 10.3 (+10.3)
Green 2.4 (-5.4)


Darlington, Red Hall and Lingfield

Lab 44.8 (-1.6)
Con 41.4 (+13.0)
FB 8.3 (+8.3)
Green 3.6 (-9.3)
Lib Dem 2.0 (-10.3)


Eden, Penrith North

Lib Dem 45.2 (+3.5)
Con 31.2 (-1.1)
Lab 16.6 (-9.4)
Green 7.0 (+7.0)

Chiltern, Penn and Coleshill

Con 80.6
Lib Dem 19.4

Waveney, Kirkley

Lab 47.8 (+12.6)
Con 27.7 (+9.9)
Lib Dem 10.7 (+10.7)
UKIP 10.0 (-11.1)
Green 3.8 (-5.Cool

Waveney, St Margaret's

Con 41.7 (+13.4)
Lab 35.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 10.2 (-17.Cool
Lib Dem 7.5 (+7.5)
Green 5.6 (-2.0)

Con gain St Margaret's from Lab






The results in Waveney and Darlington are truly shocking and disappointing to say the least,
Labour have never lost the waveney seat in a long time
we are being governed by the most incompetent government since the 1970s, brexit negotiations and universal credit aren't going well,
Labour should be 20+ ahead in the polls yet, we are level pegging nationally and losing votes locally   

I suppose that there are two possible explanations for this:

1) The type of voters that Corbyn energised (primarily the young) would be much less likely to turn out for a local by-election than the rest of the electorate. This should give Labour some comfort.

2) Whilst Corbyn may energise the Labour base he terrifies Tory inclined voters to such a degree that they are willing to stick with the Tories regardless of how incompetent/shambolic the government is. This interpretation does tie into the fact that Labour has been unable to gain a lead of more than a few points over the Tories despite them having their worst few weeks in several years. Speaking anecdotally I strongly disapprove of the governments competence but nevertheless I feel I will have to vote for them at the next election (whenever that may be) because I view the alternative (Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott and co.) as being far worse. My parents and many in their social circles feel the same as I suspect do millions across the country. Now if the economy truly were to tank this may well change but as of now there is no real sign that Labour is making any progress at all with Tory voters.

However I would note that the Waveney constituency (which should be called Lowestoft but I digress) was one of Labour's worst results in England and Wales and was indeed the only seat where the Lib Dems were not seen as the primary opposition to the Tories where the Labour vote fell. Darlington too was a below average result for Labour with a small swing against them. These are clearly not areas massively enthused by 'Corbynmania' in the first place. Whilst in contrast Labour has had extremely strong local by-election results in more touristy places on the coast in this parliament e.g. Worthing, Shoreham, Weston-super-Mare, Thanet. Nevertheless there is no getting away from the fact that this weeks results were poor for Labour with a government in as much trouble as the current one is.

Arguably the failure to damage the Tory vote virtually at all in the London borough of Wandsworth (a Labour target council next year) ward of Thamesfield in last weeks by-elections should be more concerning to Labour. This is because unlike Lowestoft and Darlington this is an area where Brexit is exceedingly unpopular and the Tories have seemingly gone out of their way to chuck away votes.

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Leftbehind
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« Reply #92 on: November 18, 2017, 02:59:54 PM »

The results in Waveney and Darlington are truly shocking and disappointing to say the least,
Labour have never lost the waveney seat in a long time
we are being governed by the most incompetent government since the 1970s, brexit negotiations and universal credit aren't going well,
Labour should be 20+ ahead in the polls yet, we are level pegging nationally and losing votes locally  

Scroll up? Labour have been fairly consistently putting on votes since the election. There's cases where that's not the case - differential turnout, minor parties standing that weren't before, local factors - but to say Labour are losing votes locally is horsesh*t. Speaking of horsesh*t, there's no way Labour would be in a twenty point lead now! Like it or not half the country are prepared to Brexit knowing the costs - they're not going to suddenly desert their party for one who'd stop that. So then you're left with those voting Tory even despite their preference to Remain - who I suspect in the main are wealthy f**kers in Wandsworth who are simply not going to vote Labour (and I'd hate to see what policies we'd need to jettison for them to do so).
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parochial boy
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« Reply #93 on: November 18, 2017, 05:02:48 PM »

Remember when the Lib Dems thought that their local by election results in the run up to 2015 was proof that their vote was going to hold up at the GE?

Best not to read too much into these sorts of things.

Also, Thamesfield is probably the worst seat for Labour in the Putney constituency, possibly in the whole of Wandsworth.
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vileplume
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« Reply #94 on: November 18, 2017, 06:24:58 PM »

Remember when the Lib Dems thought that their local by election results in the run up to 2015 was proof that their vote was going to hold up at the GE?

Best not to read too much into these sorts of things.

Also, Thamesfield is probably the worst seat for Labour in the Putney constituency, possibly in the whole of Wandsworth.

The Lib Dems results locally virtually never correlate to their results nationally due to them being a more 'localist' party. Thus the only people who thought that the strong local by-election results for the Lib Dems before the last election would translate into a big recovery despite the national polls were the usual Lib Dem rampers and people who know next to nothing about British politics. The Tory and Labour votes in local by-election do by contrast have some correlation to how each is performing nationally though you are correct that they are far from the be all and end all.

On Wandsworth whilst you are correct Thamesfield is one of the Tories best wards in the borough but the swing to Labour in that ward last week was significantly below what they were expecting. Indeed applying that swing to all wards from the Wandsworth council elections from 2014 would give Labour the Tory seats in the three split wards and nothing else leaving a Tory majority on the council. If the Tory council survives in Wandsworth next year despite Brexit and the best efforts of Theresa 'citizens of nowhere' May it will be an incredibly disappointing result for Labour considering that not only did Labour absolutely trounce the Tories in Wandsworth in the mot recent general this was a borough Kahn won in the mayoral race.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #95 on: November 18, 2017, 07:39:43 PM »

Holy Word here.

Fylde, Staining and Weeton

Con 73.0 (+11.2)
Lab 20.2 (-18.0)
Lib Dem 6.7 (+6.7)

<snip>


Why is this called the Holy Word?
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #96 on: November 18, 2017, 09:22:46 PM »

On Wandsworth whilst you are correct Thamesfield is one of the Tories best wards in the borough but the swing to Labour in that ward last week was significantly below what they were expecting. Indeed applying that swing to all wards from the Wandsworth council elections from 2014 would give Labour the Tory seats in the three split wards and nothing else leaving a Tory majority on the council. If the Tory council survives in Wandsworth next year despite Brexit and the best efforts of Theresa 'citizens of nowhere' May it will be an incredibly disappointing result for Labour considering that not only did Labour absolutely trounce the Tories in Wandsworth in the mot recent general this was a borough Kahn won in the mayoral race.

With respect, no it won't. Labour hasn't been anywhere near power in Wandsworth in (my) living memory, and if last week's performance were repeated they'd win the popular vote there - which they failed to do by a wide margin in both 94 and 98. In a mayoral contest that matters but in terms of seats and controlling the council they'd be nowhere near. I'd hate to meet the people disappointed at not gaining Wandsworth - they must be perennially crushed and would burn out in months.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #97 on: November 22, 2017, 08:41:22 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2017, 11:18:51 PM by ObserverIE »

Another week's fill of the Holy Word here.

Neath Port Talbot, Bryn-côch South

PC 49.5 (+3.4)
Lab 28.8 (+5.0)
Con 9.9 (-8.4)
Lib Dem 8.7 (+3.0)
UKIP 3.1 (+3.1)

Leicester, Eyres Monsell

Lab 53.2 (+9.8)
Lib Dem 30.6 (+23.6)
Con 16.3 (+0.2)

Cotswold, Grumbolds Ash with Avening

Con 64.7 (-6.8)
Lib Dem 21.0 (-7.5)
Lab 14.3 (+14.3)

Stockton-on-Tees, Parkfield and Oxbridge (changes in italics since January 2016 by-election)

Lab 54.7 (+9.3) (+2.2)
Con 30.8 (+3.9) (-1.1)
Ind 11.7 (-0.5) (+11.7)
Lib Dem 2.8 (-2.6) (-2.9)

Stroud, Chalford

Con 45.1 (+12.8)
Lab 25.6 (-1.3)
Green 20.5 (-7.9)
Lib Dem 8.8 (+8.8)

Perth and Kinross, Perth City South

SNP 32.1 (+6.4)
Con 31.2 (+6.0)
Lib Dem 28.8 (-5.9)
Lab 5.7 (-0.7)
Green 1.8 (-1.3)
Ind 0.5

SNP
1780
1781
1813
1883
2227
Con
1734
1738
1744
1762
2381
Lib Dem
1597
1601
1627
1733
Lab
314
319
332
Green
102
105
Ind
25

Wakefield, Wakefield West

Lab 49.7 (+0.7)
Con 41.5 (+11.3)
Yorks 6.8 (+6.8)
Lib Dem 2.0 (-4.1)

South Lanarkshire, Rutherglen Central and North

Lab 38.5 (+7.5)
SNP 27.4 (-12.1)
Lib Dem 18.2 (+8.9)
Con 12.1 (-4.1)
Green 2.9 (-1.1)
UKIP 0.9 (+0.9)

Lab
1173
1176
1203
1270
1541
SNP
836
838
870
884
989
Lib Dem
554
558
574
711
Con
368
377
379
Green
88
93
UKIP
28

Herefordshire, Bishops Frome and Cradley

Green 45.3 (+13.9)
Con 28.8 (-39.8)
Lib Dem 24.1 (+24.1)
Lab 1.8 (+1.8)

Dover, St Margarets-at-Cliffe

Con 70.5 (+19.2)
Lab 29.5 (+7.3)

Con hold Perth City South
Lab hold Rutherglen Central and North
Green gain Bishops Frome and Cradley from Con
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #98 on: November 29, 2017, 10:04:12 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2017, 07:30:19 PM by ObserverIE »

Latest Holy Word here.

Tandridge, Westway

Lib Dem 53.5 (+17.5)
Con 26.5 (-2.5)
Lab 13.1 (-2.8)
UKIP 6.9 (-12.2)

Gosport, Bridgemary North

Lib Dem 58.0 (+58.0)
Lab 23.0 (-49.0)
Con 19.1 (-8.9)

Maidstone, North

Lib Dem 51.4 (+8.4)
Con 26.0 (+2.1)
Lab 19.3 (+6.1)
Green 3.4 (-)

Torridge, Torrington

Lib Dem 60.2 (+60.2)
Ind 15.5
Con 13.6 (-6.7)
Green 6.5 (-13.8)
UKIP 4.2 (-15.8)

Lib Dem gain Bridgemary North from Lab
Lib Dem gain North from Con
Lib Dem gain Torrington from Ind elected as UKIP
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #99 on: December 01, 2017, 09:46:36 AM »

Strong night for the Lib Dems.
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