UK local by-elections, 2017

[Leftbehind]

The UKIP vote in this set of by-elections fell from 4,033.5 at the last equivalent all-out elections to 15 this time.

We may clutch our consolations about the state of British politics wherever we can find them.

Only because they're indistinguishable from the present Tory party.

[Leftbehind]

Some strong results for Labour in these past weeks.

[Leftbehind]

King's Lynn and West Norfolk, St Margarets with St Nicholas

Con 36.2 (-5.7)
Lab 30.0 (-6.2)
Lib Dem 24.7 (+24.7)
Green 9.0 (-12.9)



Con gain St Margarets with St Nicholas from Lab

If the tories had, in the past election, 41,9 and lab 36,2 this is not a Con gain, or there is some wrong

Multi member ward - see below (provided by our very own Andrew Teale):

Code:

Lesley Bambridg C 	714 	42.8%
Claire Kittow 	Lab 	554 	33.2%
Andrew Wilson 	C 	531 	
Kelly Terrey 	Lab 	523 	
Robert Archer 	Grn 	402 	24.1%
Jonathan Burr 	Grn 	250 	

You'll see Labour won the 2nd seat in 2015, but have subsequently lost it in this by-election.

[Leftbehind]

The results in Waveney and Darlington are truly shocking and disappointing to say the least,
Labour have never lost the waveney seat in a long time
we are being governed by the most incompetent government since the 1970s, brexit negotiations and universal credit aren't going well,
Labour should be 20+ ahead in the polls yet, we are level pegging nationally and losing votes locally  

Scroll up? Labour have been fairly consistently putting on votes since the election. There's cases where that's not the case - differential turnout, minor parties standing that weren't before, local factors - but to say Labour are losing votes locally is horsesh*t. Speaking of horsesh*t, there's no way Labour would be in a twenty point lead now! Like it or not half the country are prepared to Brexit knowing the costs - they're not going to suddenly desert their party for one who'd stop that. So then you're left with those voting Tory even despite their preference to Remain - who I suspect in the main are wealthy f**kers in Wandsworth who are simply not going to vote Labour (and I'd hate to see what policies we'd need to jettison for them to do so).

[Leftbehind]

On Wandsworth whilst you are correct Thamesfield is one of the Tories best wards in the borough but the swing to Labour in that ward last week was significantly below what they were expecting. Indeed applying that swing to all wards from the Wandsworth council elections from 2014 would give Labour the Tory seats in the three split wards and nothing else leaving a Tory majority on the council. If the Tory council survives in Wandsworth next year despite Brexit and the best efforts of Theresa 'citizens of nowhere' May it will be an incredibly disappointing result for Labour considering that not only did Labour absolutely trounce the Tories in Wandsworth in the mot recent general this was a borough Kahn won in the mayoral race.

With respect, no it won't. Labour hasn't been anywhere near power in Wandsworth in (my) living memory, and if last week's performance were repeated they'd win the popular vote there - which they failed to do by a wide margin in both 94 and 98. In a mayoral contest that matters but in terms of seats and controlling the council they'd be nowhere near. I'd hate to meet the people disappointed at not gaining Wandsworth - they must be perennially crushed and would burn out in months.

[Leftbehind]

Previews here: https://britainelects.com/2017/12/06/previews-07-dec-2017/

Don't have figures for the results, but the results were:

LD GAIN North Devon, Newport from Con
Lab HOLD Enfield, Enfield Highway

Presumed ObserverIE would be posting them, but just noticed he hasn't posted his customary Holy Word/placeholder post, so to fill in and hopefully not step on his toes:-

Enfield, Enfield Highway

Lab 69.8% (+23.1)
Con 26.7% (+7.4)
Grn  3.4% (-6.0)

North Devon, Newport

Lib 38.8% (+7.1)
Con 37.1% (-2.8.)
Grn 15.8% (-12.6)
Lab  8.3% (+8.3)

Lab hold Enfield Highway
Lib Dem gain Newport from Con

[Leftbehind]

Ah, that's a useful thing to know. Yeah, I'm far too lazy for avg vote changes.

[Leftbehind]

There does seem to be a pattern of strong Lib Dem results emerging here, certainly better than national polling would suggest.

I doubt that the national polling is going to be dramatically wrong with regards to where the Lib Dems are at. So, acknowledging local factor and all, is there an argument to be made that the kind of person who will vote at a local by-election (disproportionately middle aged, middle class and politically engaged) happens to correlate to the kind of person who, in 2017 at least, is more likely to vote Lib Dem?

Absolutely. Low turnout disproportionately hurts Labour and these by-elections have terrible turnouts. There's also the fact that local Lib Dems can attract votes from pro-Brexit Tories who'd trust them to protect their local services moreso than the Tories in a manner that the national party can't. Finally in many places they're best placed to be the populist vehicle to oppose an unpopular council measure in a way the Tories (who many Labour voters won't countenance for) or Labour (vice versa) aren't.