Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm pretty sure I want to marry Manuela d'Avila

[buritobr]

The conventions deadline took place yesterday, the 13 candidates were decided. Here you can see the list of the candidates for president and vice president. I don't know the running mate of some very small candidates (and it doesn't matter)

Right-wing

Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) / General Mourão (PRTB)
The far-right former army captain Jair Bolsonaro, who is leading the polls in which Lula is not mentioned, has a far right general as his running mate. Mourão has already said that the Brazilians are lazy like native americans and dishonest like africans

Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) / Ana Amélia (PP)
The former governor or the state of São Paulo has the support of the biggest number of center-right and right parties, and so, he will have the biggest share of the TV advertising time. Most of the parties supporting Temer's admininstration are supporting Alckmin, so, he will be the "de facto" incumbent candidate. Ana Amélia is a very conservative senator from the south

Marina Silva (Rede) / Eduardo Jorge (PV)
The former environmentalist Marina Silva is running for the third time. I put her in the right-wing group because her economic advisers are very liberal (in the non-US meaning). Her running mate Eduardo Jorge is another environmentalist, who has more social liberal views

Henrique Meirelles (MDB) / Germano Rigotto (MDB)
Henrique Meirelles was the president of the Central Bank during Lula's administration and the Minister of Finance during Temer's administration. He is a very liberal (in the non-US meaning) economist. He is the "de jure" Temer's candidate. His job is helping Alckmin, holding Temer's low approval rates and trying to demonstrate that Alckmin is not Temer's candidate

João Amoedo (Novo)
He is the leader of a new liberal (in the non-US meaning) party

Álvaro Dias (Podemos) / Paulo Rabello de Castro (PSC)
Álvaro Dias is a senator from Paraná, state of the judge Sérgio Moro. He is the biggest supporter of Lava Jato. His former party was PSDB, but Dias wanted to go to a small party which is not related to corruption scandals.

José Maria Eymael (DC)
He is a very small candidate who runs in every election and has always very few votes (no more than 100k). He is famous because of the jingle "eeeymael, o democrata cristão"

Cabo Daciolo (Patriota)
Fireman from Rio de Janeiro, former PSOL congressman, but moved to the right


Left-wing

Luís Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) / Fernando Haddad (PT)
Lula will not be allowed to run, because he was sentenced. So, he will be replaced by former mayor of São Paulo Fernando Haddad. Manuela Dávila (PCdoB) will become the running mate. Lula is leading the polls, but Haddad is still not able to hold Lula's numbers

Ciro Gomes (PDT) / Kátia Abreu (PDT)
Ciro Gomes wanted PT's endorsement, but PT decided to have its own candidate. Ciro is a former governor of the state of Ceará, he started his political career as a right-wing leader, but he moved to the left when he became older. Some far leftists don't believe that he moved to the left. His running mate Kátia Abreu is another former right-wing leader who moved to the left. She was the leader of the Brazilian Rural Association, than she became Dilma's Ministry of Agriculture

Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) / Sônia Guajajara (PSOL)
The leader of the Homeless Movement will be the youngest candidate. He is 36. He is also a professor of Psychoanalysis. His running mate Guajajara is a native.

Vera Lúcia (PSTU)
PSTU is the trotskist party, the most left-wing party in Brazil

João Goulart Filho (PPL)
Son of former president João Goulart, ousted in the military coup of 1964. He is running for the first time and almost nobody know him.

[buritobr]

I'm pretty sure I want to marry Manuela d'Avila

Well, this picture of Manuela is better https://www.instagram.com/p/BloUB4igwLA/?hl=en&taken-by=manueladavila

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm pretty sure I want to marry Manuela d'Avila

Well, this picture of Manuela is better https://www.instagram.com/p/BloUB4igwLA/?hl=en&taken-by=manueladavila

Olá Bébé!

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

José Maria Eymael (DC)
He is a very small candidate who runs in every election and has always very few votes (no more than 100k). He is famous because of the jingle "eeeymael, o democrata cristão"

Oh sh**t, that tune is co catchy and yet so cringy.

[MAINEiac4434]

Anyway, I'm with Boulos. Wish D'Avila was running on her own ticket.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the difference between Novo and Podemos?

[RodPresident]

Novo is a ultraliberal (almost libertarian) party founded by bankers and businessman who desires to sell all public enterprises and to deliver even public health and education to private owners. His main leader is Joao Dionisio Amoedo, former partner of Itau BBA (investment branch of largest brazilian private bank, Itau). One of their members is former Brazilian national volleyball team manager, Bernardo Rezende Bernardinho, who's economista formed in Rio's PUC (Brazilian Chicago School).

There's a wave among Brazilian parties to drop "party" name who many says that's a word linked to corruption and all of those things. First party to adhere was right-wing Democrats (formely PFL, Party of the Liberal Front). After that, other parties were created with new name (as Solidarity, led by fake trade unionist Paulo Pereira da Silva). And even powerful PMDB dropped party from its name, becoming again MDB, name of former anti-military dictatorship party. Podemos was formely PTN (National Labour Party), founded by Abreu family as a personal machine after they lost control of Sao Paulo's PTB, who serves as "rent party", non-ideological legends who are useful to politicians who want to keep their machines from big parties.
PTN was rebranded as Podemos, as they wanted to include direct democracy as one of their platforms. And Dias joined Podemos after regional problems with Parana's PSDB (he doesn't have good relations with governor Richa, as he hasn't endorsed his first election and was retained on ticket only because national party). And Podemos grew as a party distant from mainstream parties, although they don't keep a coherent line. And they now have 5 senators, Dias, Romario (RJ), Rose de Freitas (ES), Elmano Ferrer (PI) and Medeiros (MT). Freitas served as Temer's floor leader in 2016, while Romario and Dias voted against labor reform. Medeiros is a right-wing stalwart, while Ferrer went against Dilma's impeachment.

This election, Dias will join forces with Social Christian Party, who's a rent party too led by reverend Everaldo Dias, who was Aecio's auxiliary line in 2014, after supporting Dilma in 2010. Everaldo ran a very anti-state campaign, promoting privatizations, although he started in politics as Brizola's ally. Bolsonaro was set to be PSC presidential candidate but he had problems with Everaldo. Rabello de Castro, an economist with Phd in University of Chicago was serving Temer's government as IBGE (national statistics board) and BNDES (national development bank). He joined forces with Dias who wants to run as anti-corruption candidate (but Rabello's son-in-law was arrested by Car Wash).

[buritobr]

The debate was very boring. Ciro Gomes did a little better than the other ones.

[buritobr]

Today, there was the deadline for the candidates to apply to the Electoral Justice (TSE). PT registrered Lula candidate. Of course, in the next days, TSE will say that Lula cannot run, and PT will replace for Haddad.

[buritobr]

Considering that Germany is the richest country to have a multi-party system, let's compare the Brazilian candidates to the German parties, in order to understand easier the ideologies of the candidates.
If the Brazilian candidates were German, which would be their parties?

Cabo Daciolo (NPD)
Jair Bolsonaro (AFD)
José Maria Eymael (CDU)
Álvaro Dias (CSU)
João Amoedo (FDP)
Henrique Meirelles (FDP)
Geraldo Alckmin (CDU)
Marina Silva (Grünen - but she is a little bit to the right than the german greens)
Lula / Haddad (SPD)
Ciro Gomes (SPD)
Guilherme Boulos (Linke PDS)
Vera Lúcia (Linke Wasg)
João Goulart Filho (Linke PDS)

[seb_pard]

Could we say that Marina is similar to the Green Liberal Party of Switzerland?

[RodPresident]

Considering that Germany is the richest country to have a multi-party system, let's compare the Brazilian candidates to the German parties, in order to understand easier the ideologies of the candidates.
If the Brazilian candidates were German, which would be their parties?

Cabo Daciolo (NPD)
Jair Bolsonaro (AFD)
José Maria Eymael (CDU)
Álvaro Dias (CSU)
João Amoedo (FDP)
Henrique Meirelles (FDP)
Geraldo Alckmin (CDU)
Marina Silva (Grünen - but she is a little bit to the right than the german greens)
Lula / Haddad (SPD)
Ciro Gomes (SPD)
Guilherme Boulos (Linke PDS)
Vera Lúcia (Linke Wasg)
João Goulart Filho (Linke PDS)

My version would be:
Cabo Daciolo (BüSo, elected by Linke)
Jair Bolsonaro (AfD)
Eymael (Zentrum, marginal christian democrat party)
Alvaro Dias (Freie Wahler, former FDP, CDU)
Amoedo (LKR, former AfD)
Meirelles (FDP)
Alckmin (CDU)
Marina (ÖDP)
Lula/Haddad (SPD, supported by Linke historicals)
Ciro (SPD, historical, started in CDU, but moved to SPD)
Jango Filho (WASG)
Boulos (Die Linke-Die Grünen)
Vera Lúcia (some small trotskyist organization)

[buritobr]

Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

[Strudelcutie4427]

Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Why are they still polling Lula? He's in jail

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Supporting Lula... even though he won't be able to run.

[jaichind]

Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Why is Lula not able to transfer his support to Haddad?

[RodPresident]

Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Why is Lula not able to transfer his support to Haddad?

PT still says that Lula will be the candidate and Haddad is somewhat unknown. But there's a good analysis about São Paulo's voting intentions where Alckmin is in a very deep trouble.
https://www.ocafezinho.com/2018/08/21/ibope-analise-das-intencoes-de-voto-para-presidente-em-sao-paulo/

[sopojarwo]

When does the party political broadcast started ? I always liked their election ads

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's official, Lula is ineligible and cannot run in this election, Lula is out!

UGH.

Looks like Brazil is going to gamble with fascism.

[BundouYMB]

It's official, Lula is ineligible and cannot run in this election, Lula is out!

UGH.

Looks like Brazil is going to gamble with fascism.

How does it feel to defend a criminal? You're a joke.

Lula is an honest politician, which is why he wins all polls in a landslide. How does it feel that the only way you can stop him is with the corrupt judiciary?

Enjoy it while it lasts. The will of the people won't be suppressed forever.

[VPH]

Does anybody have a link to the debate? Would love to watch.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

It's official, Lula is ineligible and cannot run in this election, Lula is out!

UGH.

Looks like Brazil is going to gamble with fascism.

How does it feel to defend a criminal? You're a joke.

Lula is an honest politician, which is why he wins all polls in a landslide. How does it feel that the only way you can stop him is with the corrupt judiciary?

Enjoy it while it lasts. The will of the people won't be suppressed forever.

"Winning in the polls" means that you're an honest politician?

How does that make any sense?

[Lumine]

Kudos to Brazil for setting up an example. It's embarrasing to see the left here in Latin America defend Lula to the bitter end, or worse, argue that he should be allowed to stand (the legal process be damned) because he is supposedly leading at the polls.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Looks like I'll be rooting for Silva now!