Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[jaichind]

MDA/CNT poll

Bolsonaro   36.7 (+8.5)
Haddad       24.0 (-1.2)
Gomes         9.9  (-0.9)
Alckmin        5.8  (-0.3)

Runoff Bolsonaro 45.2 (+6.2) vs Haddad 38.7 (+3.0)

[Tender Branson]

MDA/CNT poll

Bolsonaro   36.7 (+8.5)
Haddad       24.0 (-1.2)
Gomes         9.9  (-0.9)
Alckmin        5.8  (-0.3)

Runoff Bolsonaro 45.2 (+6.2) vs Haddad 38.7 (+3.0)

Oh man ...

Hopefully the Brazilians are smarter than that and reject this tool Bolsonaro in the runoff.

[Mike88]

A Datafolha and two Ibope polls about the presidential election will still be released today if I'm not mistaken.

Datafollha poll (conducted between 4-6 October; Polled 19,552 voters)

Valid votes:

40% Bolsonaro
25% Haddad
15% Ciro
  8% Alckmin
  3% Silva
  3% Amoêdo
  2% Dias
  2% Meirelles
  1% Daciolo
  1% Boulos
  0% Lúcia
  0% Goulart Filho
  0% Eymael


Ibope poll (conducted between 5-6 October; Polled 3,010 voters)

Valid votes:

41% Bolsonaro
25% Haddad
13% Ciro
  8% Alckmin
  3% Amoêdo
  3% Silva
  2% Dias
  2% Daciolo
  2% Meirelles
  1% Boulos
  0% Lúcia
  0% Goulart Filho
  0% Eymael

[Former President tack50]

Why has Bolsonaro increased of reciently? Also, it seems he is the favourite to win the runoff now? RIP democratic Brazil

[Hydera]

Why has Bolsonaro increased of reciently? Also, it seems he is the favourite to win the runoff now? RIP democratic Brazil

He is the anti PT candidate, many middle and upper class voters that don't want Haddad to be president are but weren't voting for him now are because he has the best chance to defeat Haddad. The anti PT movement in Brazil is still very strong.

Also Haddad is pretty much Brazil's Clinton. When he was mayor of São Paulo he agreed to hikes in public transport fares that caused a huge protest movement. So it figures why a lot of harder left voters might stay out.

[jaichind]

Looks like ex-Prez Dilma Rousseff and Bolsonaro's son Flavio will both be on he ballot for Senate.

[Mike88]

Polls have also opened in Portugal in order for the 40,000 registered Brazilian voters to cast their ballots. It will be interesting to see who win here. I believe Dilma won in Portugal in both 2010 and 2014, but since then there has been a huge influx of high middle class or upper class Brazilian who have come to live in Portugal. These voters could be more Bolsonaro leaning.

In the Portuguese community in Brazil, around 160,000 people, the president of the of the permanent council of Portuguese communities abroad, Flávio Martins, said that around 80% of the Portuguese community in Brazil will vote for Bolsonaro. He added that many Portuguese living in Brazil have been actively campaigning for Bolsonaro.

[Mike88]

Two new polls from yesterday:

Instituto Veritá poll (Conducted between 2 and 5 October; Polled 5,208 voters; MoE of 2%)

Valid votes:

51.2% Bolsonaro
23.2% Haddad
10.4% Gomes
  5.2% Alckimin
  3.6% Amoêdo
  1.7% Silva
  1.2% Dias
  1.2% Daciolo
  1.0% Meirelles
  0.9% Boulos
  0.3% Eymael
  0.1% Lúcia
  0.1% Goulart Filho

Vox Populi/Brasil 247 poll (Conducted between on 6 October; Polled 2,000 voters; MoE of 2.2%)

Valid votes:
  
40% Bolsonaro
31% Haddad
11% Gomes
  5% Alckimin
  2% Marina
  1% Amoêdo
  1% Meirelles
  1% Daciolo
  1% Dias
  1% Boulos  

How reliable is Instituto Veritá? It's the only poll putting Bolsonaro above 50%.

[jaichind]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

[DavidB.]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

Because not everyone has the same values as you? Rooting for Bolsonaro too.

[mvd10]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

I was about to say wealthy foreign investors who want some juicy free market policies when I realized that's exactly the category Jaichind falls in. Seriously, the financial markets probably want Bolsonaro (since they can't get Alckmin). I don't get why you'd trust Bolsonaro for that though. Trump atleast had Ryan and McConnell, Bolsonaro has a history of voting against pension reforms and privatizations. Meanwhile Haddad probably is not that bad economically (though I'd personally prefer to keep the PT outside government, iirc Haddad wants to abolish Temer's labour reforms).

Personally I still don't know whom to back tbh. I don't take Bolsonaro's outrageous comments that seriously, but they're still worrisome. I'd probably just abstain. Though I'm pretty sure hypothetical Brazilian me would eventually end up supporting Bolsonaro.

[Mike88]

How reliable is Instituto Veritá? It's the only poll putting Bolsonaro above 50%.

I've never heard about it, it doesn't seem very reliable.

I thought so. It's a bit of a "rouge poll". However, looking back to polling in Brazilian elections, since 1994, there seems to be a tendency of underpolling PSDB, or other right-wing parties/candidates. That could mean two things: Alckimin could be heavily underestimated and could surprise today, or it is Bolsonaro himself that is a bit underpolled. We'll see.

[Senator Incitatus]

Polls have also opened in Portugal in order for the 40,000 registered Brazilian voters to cast their ballots. It will be interesting to see who win here. I believe Dilma won in Portugal in both 2010 and 2014, but since then there has been a huge influx of high middle class or upper class Brazilian who have come to live in Portugal. These voters could be more Bolsonaro leaning.

In the Portuguese community in Brazil, around 160,000 people, the president of the of the permanent council of Portuguese communities abroad, Flávio Martins, said that around 80% of the Portuguese community in Brazil will vote for Bolsonaro. He added that many Portuguese living in Brazil have been actively campaigning for Bolsonaro.

Very interesting, thanks.

[Double Carpet]

Hi all,

Does anybody have a live TV link that isn't geoblocked?

Thanks!

[jaichind]

I assume that exit polls for a lot of non-Prez races will come out at 4pm EST while the Prez exit polls come out 6pm EST and 80% of the Prez vote counted due to parts of Western Brazil being on different time zones.

[mvd10]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

I was about to say wealthy foreign investors who want some juicy free market policies when I realized that's exactly the category Jaichind falls in. Seriously, the financial markets probably want Bolsonaro (since they can't get Alckmin). I don't get why you'd trust Bolsonaro for that though. Trump atleast had Ryan and McConnell, Bolsonaro has a history of voting against pension reforms and privatizations. Meanwhile Haddad probably is not that bad economically (though I'd personally prefer to keep the PT outside government, iirc Haddad wants to abolish Temer's labour reforms).

Personally I still don't know whom to back tbh. I don't take Bolsonaro's outrageous comments that seriously, but they're still worrisome. I'd probably just abstain. Though I'm pretty sure hypothetical Brazilian me would eventually end up supporting Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro already admitted he doesn't understand economic stuff so he will likely give his economic adviser (and his minister of the economy if he wins), Paulo Guedes, a considerable amount of power over this issues during his administration and Guedes has economic views that are very right wing and pro free market.

I know that, but how long will Guedes last? And even if Bolsonaro really wants to push through economic reforms despite possible protests, he still needs to get the parliament on board which could be hard since Bolsonaro is an anti-establishment candidate. Anyway, what will the right-wing parties do when Bolsonaro is president? Will PSDB and similar parties support his agenda?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

Because not everyone has the same values as you? Rooting for Bolsonaro too.

Its not the question of values but normal humanism and respect for basic, universal morality. Bolsonaro is just a bad human being, what he confirmed in many statements and actions.

[jaichind]

From AP

"Brazil's Superior Electoral Court says that at least 300 electronic voting machines were malfunctioning and have been replaced."

"Fernando Haddad, who is running in second place, voted in Sao Paulo.

Brazilians in nearby buildings beat on pots to show their disapproval when he spoke afterward.

While the pots were banging, Haddad's supporters chanted that he would be president, making it impossible to hear what the candidate said."

[Conservatopia]

I think I would vote Amoedo first round then enthusiastically back Bolsonaro second round.
Would vote Democrats or PSL in Congressionals.  Most rightward viable options as always.
The number of parties makes my head spin.

[Double Carpet]

When do the last 6 close and when are the first presidential exit polls out?

Thanks!

[Double Carpet]

Ah thanks that's great! - I'm guessing the last state is Acre and then we'll get pres exits at 11pm UK time? (6pm EST)

[Devout Centrist]

Go Bolsonaro !!!  Hope he wins on the first round even if that seems unlikely.

Why anyone who is not Brasilian would like to suport that human garbage? Because I understand that many Brazilians have some resentiment towards PT, they feel that they need change etc. and they have some particular interest like big farms owners or protestants. But foreigners?

Because not everyone has the same values as you? Rooting for Bolsonaro too.

Of course, Dave. Never change.

[DavidB.]

Any exit polls for the presidential race?

I voted Bolsonaro (would have voted Amoêdo but he doesn't have a chance) for president, Romeu Zema for governor, Rodrigo Paiva and Rodrigo Pacheco for senate, Tiago Mitraud for federal deputy and Bernardo Bartolomeu for state deputy.

The polls will close in some minutes and exit polls wil come soon.

Nice!

[jaichind]

Wow. What a disasterous number for Rousseff