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Author Topic: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018  (Read 37993 times)
NMR
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« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2017, 10:10:15 pm »

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #51 on: December 18, 2017, 03:38:18 pm »

Aww, I liked Ronaldinho. Sad to know he’s far-right.
He's a dumb empty bag of wind. He'll lose. He isn't like Romario who was able to fool electors fighting against football crooks (Marco Polo del Nero, CBF president who can't leave Brazil was suspended by Fifa this week).
Aww, I liked Romario. Sad to know he's inept.

(clearly I know nothing about Brazilian politics)
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BrazilianConservative
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« Reply #52 on: December 18, 2017, 05:38:13 pm »

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.
Ciro won't win lots of Lula voters at any state besides his home state (Ceará). Alckmin will control the airwaves with a massive coalition featuring nearly every party who currently supports the government and the local electoral machines, plus his party controls the largest state in the country. Ciro will have little TV time and no coalition, he is doomed. Only Bolsonaro can survive having basically no airwave time because his supporters are by far the most enthusiastic, he is the most followed brazilian politician on Facebook, ahead of Lula and miles ahead of guys like Alckmin and Ciro.

It's basically a fight between money (Alckmin) and enthusiasm (Bolsonaro) at this point.
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« Reply #53 on: December 18, 2017, 06:12:47 pm »

Common sense and fascism, too.
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NMR
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« Reply #54 on: December 18, 2017, 06:37:09 pm »

Bolsonaro is not a fascist, lol.
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« Reply #55 on: December 18, 2017, 07:27:13 pm »

Bolsonaro is not a fascist, lol.

We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #56 on: December 19, 2017, 10:17:31 pm »

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.
Ciro won't win lots of Lula voters at any state besides his home state (Ceará). Alckmin will control the airwaves with a massive coalition featuring nearly every party who currently supports the government and the local electoral machines, plus his party controls the largest state in the country. Ciro will have little TV time and no coalition, he is doomed. Only Bolsonaro can survive having basically no airwave time because his supporters are by far the most enthusiastic, he is the most followed brazilian politician on Facebook, ahead of Lula and miles ahead of guys like Alckmin and Ciro.

It's basically a fight between money (Alckmin) and enthusiasm (Bolsonaro) at this point.
I think that if Lula wasn't destroyed after almost 4 years of hard attacks, then he can be an influential power broker for election. Temer's impopularity will be put in PSDB account, who'll have to chose between please Temer, his coalition, their libertarian moralist wing (Black Heads), pro-Bolsonaro people. Alckmin in SP now is in 3rd place in polls, then he won't have incumbency advantage and he'll have problems in managing state sucession between lieutenant governor Marcio França who can take state machine if he doesn't get PSDB endorsement for state election, senator José Serra and mayor Joao Doria.
Lula should proof that he'd be able to transfer votes in 2018 1st semester to be able to muster an coalition. PT should have a candidate who has political experience that lacked in Rousseff to not be appointed as "2nd Dilma". Then Wagner is most likely to be candidate than Haddad, but he's very likely to be attacked by Judiciary in next year. I'm a Ciro supporter, but he has a problem into getting PT support when he doesn't show support to Lula in his fight against judiciary persecution. And Requião is showing this loyalty that can be rewarded with Lula's support to be a replacement candidate.
This election even a candidate who lacks money can be able to make campaign through social medias and blogosphere networks. This is the reason that Bolsonaro can be strong and Lula (and his likely replacement) will be strong too. And Lula's heir will have benefit of being a true anti-Temer candidate who Alckmin and Bolsonaro won't have.
One of main risks to Bolsonaro is if a moderate who does campaign based in anticorruption and pro-Car Wash rethorics. Marina Silva (Network) and Alvaro Dias (Podemos) are in this way. And PSB is in negotiations with former Chief of Justice Joaquim Barbosa.
And main news of day is that PMDB did an convention to change its name to MDB, dropping "Party" in a way to make better their public image while remembers his noble origins as anti-military dictatorship party.
And justice Gilmar Mendes (pro-Temer) sent to senate a sugestion of transforming Brazil's government system to a semipresidentialist regime, with a prime minister.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2017, 10:20:58 pm by RodPresident »Logged


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NMR
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« Reply #57 on: December 20, 2017, 09:07:02 pm »

It seems that Bolsonaro will not join Patriota (currently PEN) anymore, according to Bolsonaro himself he had some problems with PEN's president, Adilson Barroso, instead he seems to be looking to run as the candidate for PSL/Livres, a liberal-ish party with around 225,000 members, but he also said that PR (Party of the Republic) is interested on him.

Luciano Bivar, PSL's 2006 presidential nominee, denied that PSL would support Bolsonaro.
« Last Edit: January 09, 2018, 08:23:42 am by Yankee »Logged



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NMR
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« Reply #58 on: January 05, 2018, 04:43:29 pm »

Well, forget that part of the last post where I said Bivar said he wouldn't support Bolsonaro, he changed he's mind...

Bolsonaro seems to be going to join PSL, members of the Livres wing of the party seem to be pretty mad with this, mainly because they are mostly classical liberals and their ideas don't match most of Bolsonaro's ideas, some people have been saying that Luciano Bivar is going to be Bolsonaro's VP.
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« Reply #59 on: January 12, 2018, 02:04:31 pm »

Bolsonaro is not a fascist, lol.

We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?

Being a dictatorship cheerleader has a different connotation in a country where there actually was a dictatorship, compared to in an established Western democracy, where the idea of a dictatorship is seen as extraordinary and insane.

Brazil was under a dictatorship in living memory. That dictatorship would not have been able to maintain itself if it had been opposed by 99% of the population. Many people supported it and they still deserve a voice now that Brazil is a democracy.

I would also say that in the extremely unlikely but not completely impossible event a dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship ever developed in the Untied States, you can be sure at least half the population, who currently find democracy non-negotiable, would come to at least tacitly support it.

I speak not just of Republicans supporting a "Trump dictatorship" (if you believe one already exists or if a real one were to develop) but also of Democrats supporting a potential deep state coup.
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« Reply #60 on: January 12, 2018, 05:15:30 pm »

Bolsonaro is not a fascist, lol.

We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?

Being a dictatorship cheerleader has a different connotation in a country where there actually was a dictatorship, compared to in an established Western democracy, where the idea of a dictatorship is seen as extraordinary and insane.

Brazil was under a dictatorship in living memory. That dictatorship would not have been able to maintain itself if it had been opposed by 99% of the population. Many people supported it and they still deserve a voice now that Brazil is a democracy.

I would also say that in the extremely unlikely but not completely impossible event a dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship ever developed in the Untied States, you can be sure at least half the population, who currently find democracy non-negotiable, would come to at least tacitly support it.

I speak not just of Republicans supporting a "Trump dictatorship" (if you believe one already exists or if a real one were to develop) but also of Democrats supporting a potential deep state coup.

As the deep state doesn't exist, it cannot do a coup.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #61 on: January 12, 2018, 06:34:04 pm »

Bolsonaro is not a fascist, lol.

We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?

Being a dictatorship cheerleader has a different connotation in a country where there actually was a dictatorship, compared to in an established Western democracy, where the idea of a dictatorship is seen as extraordinary and insane.

Brazil was under a dictatorship in living memory. That dictatorship would not have been able to maintain itself if it had been opposed by 99% of the population. Many people supported it and they still deserve a voice now that Brazil is a democracy.

I would also say that in the extremely unlikely but not completely impossible event a dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship ever developed in the Untied States, you can be sure at least half the population, who currently find democracy non-negotiable, would come to at least tacitly support it.

I speak not just of Republicans supporting a "Trump dictatorship" (if you believe one already exists or if a real one were to develop) but also of Democrats supporting a potential deep state coup.

As the deep state doesn't exist, it cannot do a coup.

You sound like one of those people who would be enthusiastically backing a Deep State coup.
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« Reply #62 on: January 19, 2018, 02:33:35 pm »

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.
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« Reply #63 on: January 19, 2018, 02:35:19 pm »

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.

Glorious news!
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« Reply #64 on: January 19, 2018, 02:53:41 pm »

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.

Glorious news!

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« Reply #65 on: January 19, 2018, 02:57:24 pm »

Any guess as for Fernando's finger smellerVP pick?

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NMR
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« Reply #66 on: January 19, 2018, 03:05:33 pm »

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.

Glorious news!

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« Reply #67 on: January 19, 2018, 03:09:18 pm »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?
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« Reply #68 on: January 19, 2018, 04:32:07 pm »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.
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« Reply #69 on: January 19, 2018, 06:10:23 pm »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.
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« Reply #70 on: January 20, 2018, 05:49:58 pm »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.

They'll still be in court until the election.
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« Reply #71 on: January 22, 2018, 10:27:13 am »

How 'bout we get Artur Bernardes to run again? I know he'd been dead for like forever, but Brazil loves comebacks.
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« Reply #72 on: January 22, 2018, 10:29:14 am »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.

They'll still be in court until the election.

How does it work exactly? I mean Renan was being explicitly removed from the line of succession as Senate President due to being under investigation. But does it apply for those running for office? After all, nobody's "guilty" until found guilty.
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« Reply #73 on: January 24, 2018, 01:53:19 pm »

The majority of judges, 2 out of 3, have upheld Lula da Silva's conviction. Therefore, Lula is, for the moment, forbidden to run for President. But, he can still appeal to the Higher Electoral Court (STE), then to the Superior Justice Court (STJ) and finally to the Federal Court of Justice (STF).

From what i understand, if he appeals, his conviction is suspended until the rulling is known. He can still be a candidate if, at the date of the election, his appeals aren't confirmed but if he wins the election and his appeal is denied, the election is declared invalid and a new election has to be held.

Also, the 3rd judge vote is important because if he votes in favour of Lula, his defense could try to cancel this ruling and present new evidences.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2018, 02:04:30 pm by Mike88 »Logged
NMR
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« Reply #74 on: January 24, 2018, 02:52:37 pm »

The majority of judges, 2 out of 3, have upheld Lula da Silva's conviction. Therefore, Lula is, for the moment, forbidden to run for President. But, he can still appeal to the Higher Electoral Court (STE), then to the Superior Justice Court (STJ) and finally to the Federal Court of Justice (STF).

From what i understand, if he appeals, his conviction is suspended until the rulling is known. He can still be a candidate if, at the date of the election, his appeals aren't confirmed but if he wins the election and his appeal is denied, the election is declared invalid and a new election has to be held.

Also, the 3rd judge vote is important because if he votes in favour of Lula, his defense could try to cancel this ruling and present new evidences.

The 3rd judge voted against Lula
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