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Author Topic: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018  (Read 35937 times)
EnglishPete
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« on: January 13, 2017, 09:14:34 am »

The First roundf of the Brazil Presidential election is due to take place 7th October 2018 with a second round if necessary on 28 October.

This is the latest presidential poll from last month from Datafolha. It indicates that Lula looks as though he's experiencing a surge of popularity since PT were thrown out of office. If he's allowed to run he looks in pole position right now.

The Impeachment and  PSDB's entry into government hasn't done any good for their popularity and their polling numbers have collapsed. In the 2014 election Aécio Neves was the main candidate of the right and finished second in both rounds (33.55% first round and 48.36% second round). The various possible PSDB candidates, Neves, Geraldo Alckmin (their 2006 candidate) and José Serra (their 2010 candidate), are awfully close to falling into fourth place. That would make Jair Bolsonaro (a character sometimes described as a Brazillian Donald Trump) the leading candidate of the right.

Even though Marina Silva's popularity has sunk heavily in comparison to Lula she's still risen in comparison to PSDB. That and the current President Temer's four percent rating (and two percent rating in Scenario 4) suggests that being in the new government with Temer is really dragging the PSDB down enormously.

Now its a long way out to be making any predictions based on polls but the present direction of travel is fairly stark in this poll.

« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 09:33:54 am by EnglishPete »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: January 13, 2017, 09:33:03 am »

Temer is the worst, but thankfully can't run, as he's literally a criminal.

Supporting Lula as of now. Great man who left office with a greatly high approval rating of 88%.
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2017, 10:07:34 am »

Yeah, Brazil is going to be super volatile so predictions are going to be pretty tricky. It could turn out that literally none of the candidates we know and, err, love get through the next two years. Heck, I'm not even certain we can definitely predict there will be an election, if the civilian government continue to muddle as they are doing.

My main hope is that the snakes of the PMDB are destroyed, but they are roach like. I'm also going to make the prediction that Silva will yet again fail to get in the second round.
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EnglishPete
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« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2017, 10:33:56 am »

I realise that the above graphic will be completely illegible on many devices so here is the Scenario 1 (Neves as PSDB candidate) First Round for the above poll

17-18 March

Marina Silva 21
Aécio Neves 19
Lula 17
Jair Bolsonaro 6
Ciro Gomes 6

7-8 April

Lula 21
Marina 19
Aécio 17
Bolsonaro 8
Ciro 7
Temer 2


14-15 July

Lula 22
Marina 17
Aécio 14
Bolsonaro 7
Ciro 5
Temer 5


7-8 December

Lula 25
Marina 15
Aécio 11
Bolsonaro 9
Ciro 5
Temer 4


The other first round scenarios show the same pattern but are even worse for the PSDB. Latest figues above for those

Scenario 2   7-8 Dec

Lula 26
Marina 19
Alkmin 8
Bolsonaro 8
Ciro 6
Temer 4

Scenario 3

Lula 25
Marina 16
Serra 9
Bolsonaro 9
Ciro 6
Temer 4
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EnglishPete
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« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2017, 10:41:02 am »

The second Round Scenarios show a similar pattern

Scenario 1

25-26 Nov 2015

Aécio 51
Lula 32

14-15 July 2016

Aécio 38
Lula 36

7-8 December

Lula 38
Aécio 34
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« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2017, 11:27:36 am »

Yeah, the authors of the coup against Dilma must pay for their crime.
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« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2017, 11:47:33 am »

It's funny Dilma, who got impeached, apparently is eligible to run, but Temer, who became President, has his rights to run for office suspended.
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« Reply #7 on: January 26, 2017, 09:41:17 am »

Well, I never saw anything about Brazilian politics or Brazil in general, so I'm starting this thread

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=148240.0
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« Reply #8 on: January 26, 2017, 03:48:04 pm »

Doesn't Lula look likely to go to jail?
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« Reply #9 on: January 26, 2017, 04:10:55 pm »

Doesn't Lula look likely to go to jail?

Former First Lady Marisa Leticia is hospitalized in grave condition, I would bet no one will try to arrest him while his wife is at risk of life in the hospital.
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2017, 12:18:19 pm »

Heck, I'm not even certain we can definitely predict there will be an election, if the civilian government continue to muddle as they are doing.

That is an interesting possibility.
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The world is becoming globalized, but cosmopolitanism is being hijacked by the Davos Man. What choice is left besides nationalism? The thought is terrifying, to be honest.

I just hope Trump doesn't turn into some kind of Berlusconi-esque Teflon man.
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« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2017, 03:12:53 pm »

Some days ago Dilma said that: "If Lula is the candidate for PT, he will win" and "The first coup was my impeachment, the second one will be if Lula can't be a candidate"

This will be an interesting election.
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2017, 11:35:51 am »

Sadly, former first lady Marisa Letícia has died. Cry RIP

Will this impact Lula's decision to run in 2018? I guess that after this he may step aside.
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2017, 12:36:07 pm »

Sadly, former first lady Marisa Letícia has died. Cry RIP

Will this impact Lula's decision to run in 2018? I guess that after this he may step aside.

I don't think he will step abside, but I think he will mention mention her  in some of his speeches saying things like:: "I'm still very sad because she died, but we will overcome this and win!"
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« Reply #14 on: February 15, 2017, 06:59:56 pm »

New poll by CNT/MDA:

FIRST ROUND

Scenario 1:

Lula (PT): 30,5%
Marina Silva (Rede): 11,8%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 11,3%
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 10,1%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5%
Michel Temer (PMDB): 3,7%
Null: 16,3%
Undecided: 11,3%

Scenario 2:

Lula (PT): 31,8%
Marina Silva (Rede): 12,1%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 11,7%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB): 9,1%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5,3%
Josué Alencar (PMDB), 1%
Null: 17,1%
Undecided: 11,9%

Scenario 3:

Lula (PT): 32,8%
Marina Silva (Rede): 13,9%
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 12,1%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 12%
Null: 18,6%
Undecided: 10,6%

SECOND ROUND

Scenario 1:

Lula (PT): 39,5%
Aecio (PSDB): 27,5%

Scenario 2:

Lula (PT): 42,9%
Temer (PMDB): 19%

Scenario 3:

Lula (PT): 38,9%
Marina (Rede): 27,4%

Scenario 4:

Aecio (PSDB): 28,6%
Marina (Rede): 28,3%

Scenario 5:

Aecio (PSDB): 34,1%
Temer (PMDB): 13,1%

Scenario 6:

Marina (Rede): 34,4%
Temer (PMDB): 16,8%

Despite Bolsonaro appearing in the top 3 in some scenarios, no second round scenario was made with him. In all 6 second round scenarios there is a big number of null voters ranging from 32% to 51%

Some observations:

I don't know why the polls even include Temer, he already said that he will not run in 2018...
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« Reply #15 on: March 03, 2017, 08:18:37 pm »

Lula's interrogation will be on May 3th about the Guaruja Triplex.

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EnglishPete
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« Reply #16 on: April 30, 2017, 07:43:08 am »

New Opinion poll from Vox Populi shows Lula continuing to storm ahead whilst marina Silva and possible PSDB candidates continue to stall. I believe that this is the first poll showing jair Bolsonaro getting to the second round (although this was so unexpected that they didn't ask about a second round scenario involving him)






http://cut.org.br/noticias/cut-vox-lula-vence-no-primeiro-e-segundo-turnos-em-todos-os-cenarios-pesquisados-e208/
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« Reply #17 on: May 01, 2017, 04:29:51 am »

Very interesting new poll from Datafolha. The candidates of the PSDB and the PT have been the top two candidates in all of the last six Presidential elections in Bazil, going back to 1994. At the moment however they are in a death spiral in the polls as they are hit by corruption scandals. This latest poll presents scenarios for three possible OSDB candidates and in all three their candidate is polling in fourth place. As Jair Bolsonaro emerges as the leading candidate of the right in the polls this is the first poll to ask how he would do in the second round.

Poll taken 26-27 April 2,781 interviewees in 172 municipalities. Two percent margin of error with 95% confidence. Changes are from December Datafolha poll.

First Round

Scenario 1

Lula (PT): 30% (+5)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 15% (+6)
Marina Silva (Rede): 14% (-1)
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 8% (-3)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5% (-)

Scenario 2

Lula (PT): 30% (+4)
Marina Silva (Rede): 16% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 14% (+6)
Geraldo Alkmin (PSDB): 6% (-2)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6% (-)

Scenario 3 (new scenario)

Lula (PT): 31%
Marina Silva (Rede): 16%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 13%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6%


Second Round

Scenario 1

Lula 43% (+5)
Aécio Neves  27% (-7)

Scenario 2

Lula 43% (+7)
Alkmin 29% (-5)

Scenario 3

Marina 41% (-2)
Lula 38% (+4)

Scenario 5

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%

Scenario 6

Lula 43%
Doria 32%

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879859-lula-amplia-lideranca-para-2018-e-bolsonaro-chega-a-2.shtml

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879971-veja-as-projecoes-do-datafolha-para-o-segundo-turno.shtml

The poll also incudes various scenarios if Lula is banned from running in the first round as well as scenarios where Sergio Moro (the Judge in the 'carwash' case) is a candidate, although he has not indicated that he will be one
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2017, 03:57:24 pm »

Very interesting new poll from Datafolha. The candidates of the PSDB and the PT have been the top two candidates in all of the last six Presidential elections in Bazil, going back to 1994. At the moment however they are in a death spiral in the polls as they are hit by corruption scandals. This latest poll presents scenarios for three possible OSDB candidates and in all three their candidate is polling in fourth place. As Jair Bolsonaro emerges as the leading candidate of the right in the polls this is the first poll to ask how he would do in the second round.

Poll taken 26-27 April 2,781 interviewees in 172 municipalities. Two percent margin of error with 95% confidence. Changes are from December Datafolha poll.

First Round

Scenario 1

Lula (PT): 30% (+5)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 15% (+6)
Marina Silva (Rede): 14% (-1)
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 8% (-3)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5% (-)

Scenario 2

Lula (PT): 30% (+4)
Marina Silva (Rede): 16% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 14% (+6)
Geraldo Alkmin (PSDB): 6% (-2)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6% (-)

Scenario 3 (new scenario)

Lula (PT): 31%
Marina Silva (Rede): 16%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 13%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6%


Second Round

Scenario 1

Lula 43% (+5)
Aécio Neves  27% (-7)

Scenario 2

Lula 43% (+7)
Alkmin 29% (-5)

Scenario 3

Marina 41% (-2)
Lula 38% (+4)

Scenario 5

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%

Scenario 6

Lula 43%
Doria 32%

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879859-lula-amplia-lideranca-para-2018-e-bolsonaro-chega-a-2.shtml

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879971-veja-as-projecoes-do-datafolha-para-o-segundo-turno.shtml

The poll also incudes various scenarios if Lula is banned from running in the first round as well as scenarios where Sergio Moro (the Judge in the 'carwash' case) is a candidate, although he has not indicated that he will be one

A bit late response, but I don't care, tbh, Datafolha polls are pretty... Trash, their polls said that Doria would get 5-9% of the vote in the mayoral election in São Paulo, he got 53% and was elected in the first turn. The most likely thing to happen in my opinion if Doria runs is that he will hit everyone like he was a truck and win, because São Paulo (state and city) would most likely vote to him, like, a lot.
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2017, 08:27:02 pm »

It's funny Dilma, who got impeached, apparently is eligible to run, but Temer, who became President, has his rights to run for office suspended.

She's ineligible for the presidency b/c she's term limited, regardless, on account of having won the last 2 elections, though when she was impeached, the Senate couldn't muster the 2-3rds majority of Senators needed to bar her from public office for 8 years, so she's still eligible for to run for other public offices in the near future lol
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« Reply #20 on: May 19, 2017, 02:46:14 am »

In line with OP, surely Doria is more of a Trump (right down to hosting the Apprentice!) and Bolsonaro more of a Cruz type?
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« Reply #21 on: May 19, 2017, 05:05:40 am »

I know little about him, but isn't this Bolsonaro less a religious conservative (despite his party's name) and first and foremost a fan of military junta? Which means he doesn't have a close analogue in the US.
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« Reply #22 on: May 19, 2017, 07:48:38 am »

In line with OP, surely Doria is more of a Trump (right down to hosting the Apprentice!) and Bolsonaro more of a Cruz type?


Doria is similar to Trump in the celebrity thing, but in the policies, I'd put Bolsonaro closet to Trump, specially in the economy. Doria is pretty centrist.
I know little about him, but isn't this Bolsonaro less a religious conservative (despite his party's name) and first and foremost a fan of military junta? Which means he doesn't have a close analogue in the US.

Well, Bolsonaro is very conservative and is also a military dictatoship fan, economically he is like: tarrifs in foreign products and Fair trade
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« Reply #23 on: May 30, 2017, 08:36:52 am »

Should Lula be interrogated, what would a Gomes vs generic right candidate match-up be?
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2017, 02:19:54 pm »

Should Lula be interrogated, what would a Gomes vs generic right candidate match-up be?

The only right wing candidate I can think of is Bolsonaro, and tbh, I don't really know how it would turn out, in scenarios where Lula isn't running in polls, Ciro appears with 6,7% of the vote. So it's kinda hard to say.

In a scenario with Doria (just talking about him because many consider him a right wing possible candidate), Ciro would be destroyed...
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