Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[EnglishPete]

The First roundf of the Brazil Presidential election is due to take place 7th October 2018 with a second round if necessary on 28 October.

This is the latest presidential poll from last month from Datafolha. It indicates that Lula looks as though he's experiencing a surge of popularity since PT were thrown out of office. If he's allowed to run he looks in pole position right now.

The Impeachment and  PSDB's entry into government hasn't done any good for their popularity and their polling numbers have collapsed. In the 2014 election Aécio Neves was the main candidate of the right and finished second in both rounds (33.55% first round and 48.36% second round). The various possible PSDB candidates, Neves, Geraldo Alckmin (their 2006 candidate) and José Serra (their 2010 candidate), are awfully close to falling into fourth place. That would make Jair Bolsonaro (a character sometimes described as a Brazillian Donald Trump) the leading candidate of the right.

Even though Marina Silva's popularity has sunk heavily in comparison to Lula she's still risen in comparison to PSDB. That and the current President Temer's four percent rating (and two percent rating in Scenario 4) suggests that being in the new government with Temer is really dragging the PSDB down enormously.

Now its a long way out to be making any predictions based on polls but the present direction of travel is fairly stark in this poll.

[Intell]

Temer is the worst, but thankfully can't run, as he's literally a criminal.

Supporting Lula as of now. Great man who left office with a greatly high approval rating of 88%.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, Brazil is going to be super volatile so predictions are going to be pretty tricky. It could turn out that literally none of the candidates we know and, err, love get through the next two years. Heck, I'm not even certain we can definitely predict there will be an election, if the civilian government continue to muddle as they are doing.

My main hope is that the snakes of the PMDB are destroyed, but they are roach like. I'm also going to make the prediction that Silva will yet again fail to get in the second round.

[EnglishPete]

I realise that the above graphic will be completely illegible on many devices so here is the Scenario 1 (Neves as PSDB candidate) First Round for the above poll

17-18 March

Marina Silva 21
Aécio Neves 19
Lula 17
Jair Bolsonaro 6
Ciro Gomes 6

7-8 April

Lula 21
Marina 19
Aécio 17
Bolsonaro 8
Ciro 7
Temer 2


14-15 July

Lula 22
Marina 17
Aécio 14
Bolsonaro 7
Ciro 5
Temer 5


7-8 December

Lula 25
Marina 15
Aécio 11
Bolsonaro 9
Ciro 5
Temer 4


The other first round scenarios show the same pattern but are even worse for the PSDB. Latest figues above for those

Scenario 2   7-8 Dec

Lula 26
Marina 19
Alkmin 8
Bolsonaro 8
Ciro 6
Temer 4

Scenario 3

Lula 25
Marina 16
Serra 9
Bolsonaro 9
Ciro 6
Temer 4

[EnglishPete]

The second Round Scenarios show a similar pattern

Scenario 1

25-26 Nov 2015

Aécio 51
Lula 32

14-15 July 2016

Aécio 38
Lula 36

7-8 December

Lula 38
Aécio 34

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, the authors of the coup against Dilma must pay for their crime.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

It's funny Dilma, who got impeached, apparently is eligible to run, but Temer, who became President, has his rights to run for office suspended.

[Lord Halifax]

Well, I never saw anything about Brazilian politics or Brazil in general, so I'm starting this thread

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=148240.0

[Simfan34]

Doesn't Lula look likely to go to jail?

[Adriano Chiká]

Doesn't Lula look likely to go to jail?

Former First Lady Marisa Leticia is hospitalized in grave condition, I would bet no one will try to arrest him while his wife is at risk of life in the hospital.

[Simfan34]

Heck, I'm not even certain we can definitely predict there will be an election, if the civilian government continue to muddle as they are doing.

That is an interesting possibility.

[Mike88]

Sadly, former first lady Marisa Letícia has died. RIP

Will this impact Lula's decision to run in 2018? I guess that after this he may step aside.

[EnglishPete]

New Opinion poll from Vox Populi shows Lula continuing to storm ahead whilst marina Silva and possible PSDB candidates continue to stall. I believe that this is the first poll showing jair Bolsonaro getting to the second round (although this was so unexpected that they didn't ask about a second round scenario involving him)






http://cut.org.br/noticias/cut-vox-lula-vence-no-primeiro-e-segundo-turnos-em-todos-os-cenarios-pesquisados-e208/

[EnglishPete]

Very interesting new poll from Datafolha. The candidates of the PSDB and the PT have been the top two candidates in all of the last six Presidential elections in Bazil, going back to 1994. At the moment however they are in a death spiral in the polls as they are hit by corruption scandals. This latest poll presents scenarios for three possible OSDB candidates and in all three their candidate is polling in fourth place. As Jair Bolsonaro emerges as the leading candidate of the right in the polls this is the first poll to ask how he would do in the second round.

Poll taken 26-27 April 2,781 interviewees in 172 municipalities. Two percent margin of error with 95% confidence. Changes are from December Datafolha poll.

First Round

Scenario 1

Lula (PT): 30% (+5)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 15% (+6)
Marina Silva (Rede): 14% (-1)
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 8% (-3)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5% (-)

Scenario 2

Lula (PT): 30% (+4)
Marina Silva (Rede): 16% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 14% (+6)
Geraldo Alkmin (PSDB): 6% (-2)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6% (-)

Scenario 3 (new scenario)

Lula (PT): 31%
Marina Silva (Rede): 16%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 13%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6%


Second Round

Scenario 1

Lula 43% (+5)
Aécio Neves  27% (-7)

Scenario 2

Lula 43% (+7)
Alkmin 29% (-5)

Scenario 3

Marina 41% (-2)
Lula 38% (+4)

Scenario 5

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%

Scenario 6

Lula 43%
Doria 32%

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879859-lula-amplia-lideranca-para-2018-e-bolsonaro-chega-a-2.shtml

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879971-veja-as-projecoes-do-datafolha-para-o-segundo-turno.shtml

The poll also incudes various scenarios if Lula is banned from running in the first round as well as scenarios where Sergio Moro (the Judge in the 'carwash' case) is a candidate, although he has not indicated that he will be one

[brucejoel99]

It's funny Dilma, who got impeached, apparently is eligible to run, but Temer, who became President, has his rights to run for office suspended.

She's ineligible for the presidency b/c she's term limited, regardless, on account of having won the last 2 elections, though when she was impeached, the Senate couldn't muster the 2-3rds majority of Senators needed to bar her from public office for 8 years, so she's still eligible for to run for other public offices in the near future lol

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In line with OP, surely Doria is more of a Trump (right down to hosting the Apprentice!) and Bolsonaro more of a Cruz type?

[Zuza]

I know little about him, but isn't this Bolsonaro less a religious conservative (despite his party's name) and first and foremost a fan of military junta? Which means he doesn't have a close analogue in the US.

[peterthlee]

Should Lula be interrogated, what would a Gomes vs generic right candidate match-up be?

[EnglishPete]

Lula has just been sentenced to nine and a half years in prison but is still free pending his appeal. Can the Brazilians here clarify whether or not he's also free to run for President whilst his appeal is pending.

[Mike88]

Lula has just been sentenced to nine and a half years in prison but is still free pending his appeal. Can the Brazilians here clarify whether or not he's also free to run for President whilst his appeal is pending.

His attorneys will probably ask for an appeal. Right now, nothing would stop his candidacy unless the appeal court upholds the 1st rolling . After that, yes, he would be barred from running in accordance with "Clean Sheet" (Ficha Limpa) law.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This really doesn't look good.

[Mike88]

Portuguese media is strongly covering Lula's acusation:

Front page of Jornal i:

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PS: Lula translated to English means Squid.

[sb95]

Maybe this isn't the correct thread, but I didn't find a thread about brazilian politics in general. After the last labour reform, I read in some media in my country, that the current government is analyzing an electoral reform that would change the way the representatives would be elected, and the financing of political parties.
The article I read refers to the possibility and support of PSDB and some right-wing parties for a transition to a parliamentary system (is any general consensus about this in brazilian politics/society?) and the change from the current system (i think it's PR party-list) to a single non-transferable vote (SNTV) that it's only used according to the article in Afghanistan and Jordan and it's opposed by the majority of the academia. They also propose to eliminate re-election for executive mandates (president, governors, mayors), an increase of it from 4 years to 5 years and the end of compulsatory voting.
Is any of this reforms really taking place or it's just speculation?

[RodPresident]

Maybe this isn't the correct thread, but I didn't find a thread about brazilian politics in general. After the last labour reform, I read in some media in my country, that the current government is analyzing an electoral reform that would change the way the representatives would be elected, and the financing of political parties.
The article I read refers to the possibility and support of PSDB and some right-wing parties for a transition to a parliamentary system (is any general consensus about this in brazilian politics/society?) and the change from the current system (i think it's PR party-list) to a single non-transferable vote (SNTV) that it's only used according to the article in Afghanistan and Jordan and it's opposed by the majority of the academia. They also propose to eliminate re-election for executive mandates (president, governors, mayors), an increase of it from 4 years to 5 years and the end of compulsatory voting.
Is any of this reforms really taking place or it's just speculation?

Yes, our parliament is discussing now Political Reform. After ban on companies financing political campaigns and all scandals, discussions about campaign finance reform got strong. They're trying to find a system who matches with public financing of campaign.
Our system is a proportional open list where the aggregate vote by coalition candidates will determine the number of seats, while the order will be made by order of votes. This system has lot of critics because of "Tiririca effect", where a well-voted congressman gets enough votes to bring weaker ticket mates. This is named after congressman and clown Tiririca (PR, Sao Paulo) got elected with a lot of protest votes and helped to bring congressmen with 30k votes in Sao Paulo, while other with 100 k votes failed to be elected. But most bizarre situation of this kind was in 2002, when perennial candidate Eneas (then of Prona, Sao Paulo) ran for congress and got record 1,573,642 votes and brought a congressman who got only 275 votes, a number that usually can't elect a councilman even in small cities. Well-voted candidates ended not elected, like Luciana Genro in 2010 (PSOL, Rio Grande do Sul) and sports journalist Jorge Kajuru (PRP, Goias). This was already adressed by 2015 mini-reform where a candidate will need 10% of electoral quocient (number of votes to get one seat) to be electable. Other problem are coalitions, that allowed bizarre coalitions like DEM, PSDB, PSB PMDB and PC do B in Pernambuco, while PT failed to elect a congressman in Lula's birth state because allied candidates got most voted.
The reporter of political reform, Vicente Candido (PT, Sao Paulo) proposed to keep current system for 2018 general election and 2020 local elections and to change to mixed-member system in 2022. But more right-wing parties and big tent parties (DEM, PSDB, PP, PSD) wants to put SNTV (we call Distritao, or big-district system) system as transition rule because they want to keep traditional politicians stronger and to limit growth of more ideological parties. One of most notorius supporters is president Temer.
Most of critics of this transition rule say that this will prevent new candidates of trying to enter politics, while voting won't reflect people ideological positions weakening political parties. Because of that, some parties who rely in big-name candidates, like PR and PRB, and more ideological parties (PT, PC do B, PDT, PSOL). In current system, PT could get a boost from Lula's support, like in 2002, but in big district, they would be luckier to keep current seats. Bolsonaro's people also don't like this system, because they have plans to elect a ultraconservative bench in next year elections, with Bolsonaro's children as vote pushers in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Congress needs to put this in vote before October 7, because electoral rules need to be approved 1 year before election. After Temer's charge voting, congressional works is almost stopped (Big Center parties desire to take some of PSDB positions in government), while government tries to get support to enlarge debt target from 139 billions of reals to 159 billions.

[RodPresident]

Far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PEN, that is going to become Patriots) will do a tour in United States. He'll will be received by pro-market people like Brazil-US Trade Chamber and he'll meet Republican party officers. He wants to show to financial establishment that he's not more a nationalist, but a pro-business conservative.
Political reform in Congress is going to change political party financing, as big-district (Distritao) failed to get enough votes. Congress decided to forbid proportional coalitions from 2020 local elections and to create a progressive threshold (1.5% in 2018, 2% in 2022, 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2030) where parties who fail to get it won't be able to get public funds.