Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018
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Author Topic: Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018  (Read 82499 times)
sb95
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« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2017, 11:45:32 PM »

Well, since each day the election is getting close, I'm reviving this.

There have been some recent news about Luciano Huck, a television host for a program called "Caldeirão do Huck" (Huck's Cauldron in english) thinking about a possible campaign for president next year, I saw many websites claiming that he's party would likely be the Popular Socialist Party...

Knowing the average Brazilian, I wouldn't actually underestimate he's chances of winning if he runs.

Dr. Rey from "Dr. 90210" has said he's going to probably run, and he actually seems kinds serious about this, I saw somewhere that he wants to resurrect PRONA, that was a former Brazilian party, the party was known mostly because of Eneas Carneiro, who ran for president some times and got almost 8% of the vote in 1994. From one interview a saw, he seems to want an free market economy and at the same time, he seems to have a pretty nationalist rhetoric, Rey is currently in PEN, which is the party that Bolsonaro seeks to join, so in case he doesn't create the new PRONA and wants to run, it might be tough.

Rey actually already ran one time to be a congressman, but he lost.
who are the candidates of the other major parties or coalitions? does parties only work as a structure of a political figure only? does PR, Progresistas (who are centre-right?) support Bolsonaro?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #26 on: November 20, 2017, 09:00:42 PM »

Well, since each day the election is getting close, I'm reviving this.

There have been some recent news about Luciano Huck, a television host for a program called "Caldeirão do Huck" (Huck's Cauldron in english) thinking about a possible campaign for president next year, I saw many websites claiming that he's party would likely be the Popular Socialist Party...

Knowing the average Brazilian, I wouldn't actually underestimate he's chances of winning if he runs.

Dr. Rey from "Dr. 90210" has said he's going to probably run, and he actually seems kinds serious about this, I saw somewhere that he wants to resurrect PRONA, that was a former Brazilian party, the party was known mostly because of Eneas Carneiro, who ran for president some times and got almost 8% of the vote in 1994. From one interview a saw, he seems to want an free market economy and at the same time, he seems to have a pretty nationalist rhetoric, Rey is currently in PEN, which is the party that Bolsonaro seeks to join, so in case he doesn't create the new PRONA and wants to run, it might be tough.

Rey actually already ran one time to be a congressman, but he lost.
who are the candidates of the other major parties or coalitions? does parties only work as a structure of a political figure only? does PR, Progresistas (who are centre-right?) support Bolsonaro?
Huck is a pro-business hack and he was very friend with Neves. FHC likes him (because he dislikes Alckmin who didn't stand for his legacy in 2006).
Bolsonaro is likely to go to Ecological National Party (a party for rent, created by an evangelical reverend) and he plans to change his name to "Patriots", following a wave that discards name "Party".
PC do B (Communist Party of Brazil), a former Hoxhaist party who's now democratic socialist, launched state legislator Manuela D'Avila, 36, (Rio Grande do Sul) as their candidate for Presidency. She served 2 times in congress as top voted in RS. Lula went to their party congress and Ciro Gomes sent a video to them. Probably, PC do B has her candidacy to ensure PT support to Flavio Dino's reelection bid in Maranhao.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2017, 08:38:13 PM »

Well, since each day the election is getting close, I'm reviving this.

There have been some recent news about Luciano Huck, a television host for a program called "Caldeirão do Huck" (Huck's Cauldron in english) thinking about a possible campaign for president next year, I saw many websites claiming that he's party would likely be the Popular Socialist Party...

Knowing the average Brazilian, I wouldn't actually underestimate he's chances of winning if he runs.

Dr. Rey from "Dr. 90210" has said he's going to probably run, and he actually seems kinds serious about this, I saw somewhere that he wants to resurrect PRONA, that was a former Brazilian party, the party was known mostly because of Eneas Carneiro, who ran for president some times and got almost 8% of the vote in 1994. From one interview a saw, he seems to want an free market economy and at the same time, he seems to have a pretty nationalist rhetoric, Rey is currently in PEN, which is the party that Bolsonaro seeks to join, so in case he doesn't create the new PRONA and wants to run, it might be tough.

Rey actually already ran one time to be a congressman, but he lost.
who are the candidates of the other major parties or coalitions? does parties only work as a structure of a political figure only? does PR, Progresistas (who are centre-right?) support Bolsonaro?
Huck is a pro-business hack and he was very friend with Neves. FHC likes him (because he dislikes Alckmin who didn't stand for his legacy in 2006).
Bolsonaro is likely to go to Ecological National Party (a party for rent, created by an evangelical reverend) and he plans to change his name to "Patriots", following a wave that discards name "Party".
PC do B (Communist Party of Brazil), a former Hoxhaist party who's now democratic socialist, launched state legislator Manuela D'Avila, 36, (Rio Grande do Sul) as their candidate for Presidency. She served 2 times in congress as top voted in RS. Lula went to their party congress and Ciro Gomes sent a video to them. Probably, PC do B has her candidacy to ensure PT support to Flavio Dino's reelection bid in Maranhao.

Another party announced their candidate, the party now was "NOVO" (NEW), NOVO seems to be one of, if not the most most liked Brazilian party on facebook (I didn't search that well actually, but it has a lot), but despite that, It's pretty small (according to Wikipedia, they have a little under 14.000 members), they announced that the former president of the party, João Dionísio Amoêdo. NOVO is a libertarian party that aims for ending the compulsory voting and privatizing Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, the Central Bank of Brazil and also public schools and hospitals. The party doesn't have a stance on many social issues like gay marriage.
You didn't tell that Amoedo is a banker, linked to Itau, largest Brazilian bank. Lot of PSDB-linked economists switched allegiances to New Party, like Gustavo Franco. They want to run former manager of Brazilian volleyball team, Bernardo Rezende, to be their candidate for Rio governorship. Rezende is a economist formed by PUC Rio (Brazilian Chicago School) and he was very friend with Neves (he's partner of one of best Aecio's friends in a network of fitness academies).
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catmando
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« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2017, 05:11:32 PM »
« Edited: December 03, 2017, 05:30:03 PM by catmando »

The Lula dynamic is fascinating, with his fate is in the hands of the courts. My wife is Brasileira, by the way, so we are watching this unfold with great interest.
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Mike88
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« Reply #29 on: December 09, 2017, 04:11:05 PM »

So, Alckmin was elected President of PSDB and will, probably, be the party's candidate in 2018. He's polling around 9-10%. Does he really has a chance?

Also, the PSDB will drop their support for Temer.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #30 on: December 14, 2017, 11:56:57 PM »

Lula will be judged about the whole Triplex thing on January 24, if he is convicted then he may be banned from running for office.
This thing is very dirty. They booked Lula's appeal judgment by Federal Appelations Court of Porto Alegre (who covers South region - including Moro's Paraná) in anniversary of stroke who killed Marisa Leticia da Silva, Lula's wife and during judiciary recess. Appeal will be judged by 3 judges, João Paulo Gebran, Moro's personal friend, who'll be reporter, Leandro Paulsen, who'll be reviewer and Victor Laus. If decision is made by a 2-1 vote, Lula still can appeal to other chamber of same trial, before going to Supreme Court of Justice (3rd level of justice). Time to Gebran to do a report about Lula's process took 100 days, when Car Wash processes take usually 275 days. Time between report and judgment of appeal was of 54 days, when they usually take 105 days. Even, they can assert that this time is smaller because Lula's age (people with more of 60 years have priority in Brazilian justice), but they judged Pedro Correa, who have 69 years, in 23 months, when they'll judge Lula in 6 months.
Now, they're rumoring Roberto Requião (PMDB-PR) as Lula's running mate or replacement. To run in Lula's ticket, he'll probably leave PMDB. Requião is a leftwing firebrand, even in PMDB. He has political experience (3 terms as governor and 2 terms as senator) that lacks in another PT candidates.
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buritobr
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« Reply #31 on: December 16, 2017, 01:56:45 PM »

Former soccer player Ronaldinho Gaúcho will run for the senator of the state of Rio Grande do Sul in the far right Bolsonaro party
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #32 on: December 16, 2017, 09:25:13 PM »

Aww, I liked Ronaldinho. Sad to know he’s far-right.
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RodPresident
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« Reply #33 on: December 17, 2017, 02:13:07 AM »

Aww, I liked Ronaldinho. Sad to know he’s far-right.
He's a dumb empty bag of wind. He'll lose. He isn't like Romario who was able to fool electors fighting against football crooks (Marco Polo del Nero, CBF president who can't leave Brazil was suspended by Fifa this week).
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BrazilianConservative
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« Reply #34 on: December 17, 2017, 10:00:22 PM »
« Edited: December 17, 2017, 10:02:30 PM by BrazilianConservative »

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro supporters are the only other voters with any enthusiasm to vote, as he is the only outsider in a sea of establishment candidates regarded as crooks.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #35 on: December 18, 2017, 03:38:18 PM »

Aww, I liked Ronaldinho. Sad to know he’s far-right.
He's a dumb empty bag of wind. He'll lose. He isn't like Romario who was able to fool electors fighting against football crooks (Marco Polo del Nero, CBF president who can't leave Brazil was suspended by Fifa this week).
Aww, I liked Romario. Sad to know he's inept.

(clearly I know nothing about Brazilian politics)
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BrazilianConservative
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« Reply #36 on: December 18, 2017, 05:38:13 PM »

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.
Ciro won't win lots of Lula voters at any state besides his home state (Ceará). Alckmin will control the airwaves with a massive coalition featuring nearly every party who currently supports the government and the local electoral machines, plus his party controls the largest state in the country. Ciro will have little TV time and no coalition, he is doomed. Only Bolsonaro can survive having basically no airwave time because his supporters are by far the most enthusiastic, he is the most followed brazilian politician on Facebook, ahead of Lula and miles ahead of guys like Alckmin and Ciro.

It's basically a fight between money (Alckmin) and enthusiasm (Bolsonaro) at this point.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #37 on: December 18, 2017, 06:12:47 PM »

Common sense and fascism, too.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #38 on: December 18, 2017, 07:27:13 PM »


We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #39 on: December 19, 2017, 10:17:31 PM »
« Edited: December 19, 2017, 10:20:58 PM by RodPresident »

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.
Ciro won't win lots of Lula voters at any state besides his home state (Ceará). Alckmin will control the airwaves with a massive coalition featuring nearly every party who currently supports the government and the local electoral machines, plus his party controls the largest state in the country. Ciro will have little TV time and no coalition, he is doomed. Only Bolsonaro can survive having basically no airwave time because his supporters are by far the most enthusiastic, he is the most followed brazilian politician on Facebook, ahead of Lula and miles ahead of guys like Alckmin and Ciro.

It's basically a fight between money (Alckmin) and enthusiasm (Bolsonaro) at this point.
I think that if Lula wasn't destroyed after almost 4 years of hard attacks, then he can be an influential power broker for election. Temer's impopularity will be put in PSDB account, who'll have to chose between please Temer, his coalition, their libertarian moralist wing (Black Heads), pro-Bolsonaro people. Alckmin in SP now is in 3rd place in polls, then he won't have incumbency advantage and he'll have problems in managing state sucession between lieutenant governor Marcio França who can take state machine if he doesn't get PSDB endorsement for state election, senator José Serra and mayor Joao Doria.
Lula should proof that he'd be able to transfer votes in 2018 1st semester to be able to muster an coalition. PT should have a candidate who has political experience that lacked in Rousseff to not be appointed as "2nd Dilma". Then Wagner is most likely to be candidate than Haddad, but he's very likely to be attacked by Judiciary in next year. I'm a Ciro supporter, but he has a problem into getting PT support when he doesn't show support to Lula in his fight against judiciary persecution. And Requião is showing this loyalty that can be rewarded with Lula's support to be a replacement candidate.
This election even a candidate who lacks money can be able to make campaign through social medias and blogosphere networks. This is the reason that Bolsonaro can be strong and Lula (and his likely replacement) will be strong too. And Lula's heir will have benefit of being a true anti-Temer candidate who Alckmin and Bolsonaro won't have.
One of main risks to Bolsonaro is if a moderate who does campaign based in anticorruption and pro-Car Wash rethorics. Marina Silva (Network) and Alvaro Dias (Podemos) are in this way. And PSB is in negotiations with former Chief of Justice Joaquim Barbosa.
And main news of day is that PMDB did an convention to change its name to MDB, dropping "Party" in a way to make better their public image while remembers his noble origins as anti-military dictatorship party.
And justice Gilmar Mendes (pro-Temer) sent to senate a sugestion of transforming Brazil's government system to a semipresidentialist regime, with a prime minister.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #40 on: January 12, 2018, 02:04:31 PM »


We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?

Being a dictatorship cheerleader has a different connotation in a country where there actually was a dictatorship, compared to in an established Western democracy, where the idea of a dictatorship is seen as extraordinary and insane.

Brazil was under a dictatorship in living memory. That dictatorship would not have been able to maintain itself if it had been opposed by 99% of the population. Many people supported it and they still deserve a voice now that Brazil is a democracy.

I would also say that in the extremely unlikely but not completely impossible event a dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship ever developed in the Untied States, you can be sure at least half the population, who currently find democracy non-negotiable, would come to at least tacitly support it.

I speak not just of Republicans supporting a "Trump dictatorship" (if you believe one already exists or if a real one were to develop) but also of Democrats supporting a potential deep state coup.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #41 on: January 12, 2018, 05:15:30 PM »


We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?

Being a dictatorship cheerleader has a different connotation in a country where there actually was a dictatorship, compared to in an established Western democracy, where the idea of a dictatorship is seen as extraordinary and insane.

Brazil was under a dictatorship in living memory. That dictatorship would not have been able to maintain itself if it had been opposed by 99% of the population. Many people supported it and they still deserve a voice now that Brazil is a democracy.

I would also say that in the extremely unlikely but not completely impossible event a dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship ever developed in the Untied States, you can be sure at least half the population, who currently find democracy non-negotiable, would come to at least tacitly support it.

I speak not just of Republicans supporting a "Trump dictatorship" (if you believe one already exists or if a real one were to develop) but also of Democrats supporting a potential deep state coup.

As the deep state doesn't exist, it cannot do a coup.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #42 on: January 12, 2018, 06:34:04 PM »


We'll settle on dictatorship cheerleader, then?

Being a dictatorship cheerleader has a different connotation in a country where there actually was a dictatorship, compared to in an established Western democracy, where the idea of a dictatorship is seen as extraordinary and insane.

Brazil was under a dictatorship in living memory. That dictatorship would not have been able to maintain itself if it had been opposed by 99% of the population. Many people supported it and they still deserve a voice now that Brazil is a democracy.

I would also say that in the extremely unlikely but not completely impossible event a dictatorship or quasi-dictatorship ever developed in the Untied States, you can be sure at least half the population, who currently find democracy non-negotiable, would come to at least tacitly support it.

I speak not just of Republicans supporting a "Trump dictatorship" (if you believe one already exists or if a real one were to develop) but also of Democrats supporting a potential deep state coup.

As the deep state doesn't exist, it cannot do a coup.

You sound like one of those people who would be enthusiastically backing a Deep State coup.
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Lumine
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« Reply #43 on: January 19, 2018, 02:33:35 PM »

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #44 on: January 19, 2018, 02:35:19 PM »

It appears Fernando Collor de Melo is running again.

Glorious news!
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #45 on: January 19, 2018, 02:53:41 PM »


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Kalwejt
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« Reply #46 on: January 19, 2018, 02:57:24 PM »

Any guess as for Fernando's finger smellerVP pick?

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Mike88
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« Reply #47 on: January 19, 2018, 03:09:18 PM »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #48 on: January 19, 2018, 04:32:07 PM »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.
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Mike88
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« Reply #49 on: January 19, 2018, 06:10:23 PM »

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.
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