Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[MaxQue]

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.

They'll still be in court until the election.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

How 'bout we get Artur Bernardes to run again? I know he'd been dead for like forever, but Brazil loves comebacks.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Isn't he also being investigated in the Lava Jato case?

He's not left-wing, so the corrupt courts will let him off the hook.

I don't know... from what i googled about him, his cases are still in court and, who knows, he could also be barred from running.

They'll still be in court until the election.

How does it work exactly? I mean Renan was being explicitly removed from the line of succession as Senate President due to being under investigation. But does it apply for those running for office? After all, nobody's "guilty" until found guilty.

[Mike88]

The majority of judges, 2 out of 3, have upheld Lula da Silva's conviction. Therefore, Lula is, for the moment, forbidden to run for President. But, he can still appeal to the Higher Electoral Court (STE), then to the Superior Justice Court (STJ) and finally to the Federal Court of Justice (STF).

From what i understand, if he appeals, his conviction is suspended until the rulling is known. He can still be a candidate if, at the date of the election, his appeals aren't confirmed but if he wins the election and his appeal is denied, the election is declared invalid and a new election has to be held.

Also, the 3rd judge vote is important because if he votes in favour of Lula, his defense could try to cancel this ruling and present new evidences.

[jaichind]

Ibovespa benchmark stock index ended up 3.7% on news of Lula corruption appeal being dismissed.  It seems Lula claims he will still run for Prez.  Not sure how he will do this.  Is he not just barred from running ?

[Mike88]

Ibovespa benchmark stock index ended up 3.7% on news of Lula corruption appeal being dismissed.  It seems Lula claims he will still run for Prez.  Not sure how he will do this.  Is he not just barred from running ?

He will appeal to the Superior Justice Court, so the current ruling is suspended until a new one is proclaimed. But, one of judges said that Lula could actually go to jail in 2 or 3 months, and if that happens, he'll have to wait for his appeal sentence in jail. I don't what will happen if he goes to jail, if he's automatically barred from running or not.

Nonetheless, the justice system is not in his favour, but timing could actually help him. If he goes from appeal after appeal, he could run and win the election, but, like i said in a post earlier, if in his last chance to present an appeal, to the Federal Superior Court, he is still found guilty, then the election is declared invalid and a new one, without Lula, has to be held.

[Bojicat]

MODERATOR EDIT: this topic was merged into the existing thread but it got to add "Congressional" on to the title because I presume both might get discussed

Brazil's holding a much-anticipated Presidential and Congressional election in October this year.

513 members of the Câmara dos Deputados, the Lower House of Congress, will be up for election as well as two-thirds of the Upper House (the Senado Federal).

Among the numerous candidates likely to officially declare for president in the two-round system are movement standard-bearers LULA DA SILVA, who continues to slog on in spite of a recently upheld corruption conviction rendering him ineligible to run for office, and bull-in-a-china-shop JAIR BOLSONARO.  Few expect any one candidate to clinch over 50% of the vote in the first round (taking place on Sunday, October 7th), but Lula and Bolsonaro are favorites to face each other in the second.

Is there a scenario where the 'authorities' dare arrest Lula mid-campaign, who could serve a 9 1/2 year jail sentence based on his conviction? What would happen if Lula won? Would his victory be declared null and void, and how would his supporters react to that?

A true Right vs Left battle is looming, where 'moderates' are few and far between.

[RodPresident]

President de facto Temer (PMDB) ordered a Federal Intervention (direct rule) in Rio de Janeiro's state to "recover order" in public security (Civil Police, Military Police and Firefighters). Military Commander of the East, General of Army, Walter Braga Neto will be Rio's security chief, with full powers in this area. Governor Luis Fernando "Bigfoot" de Sousa supports direct rule as this relives him from one of focus of his problematic management. Rio was the state most affected by economic crisis in Brazil caused by opposition to legitimate president Dilma Rousseff (PT) and judicial procedures who made Petrobras stop investments and to divert to foreign contractors. Fall in oil prices is one of causes too,as fiscal incentives. Shipyards were closed and U$ 6 billion investments in ships were stopped only in Rio. And corruption denounces appeared carried by Carwash inquires. Former governor Sergio Cabral (PMDB) is in jail and "Bigfoot" is very likely to face problems in justice after leaving government.
In Rio's Carnival, Temer (PMDB) was criticized by Samba School Paraiso do Tuiuti who attacked Labor Reform with theme "My God, my God, is slavery finished?"!. One guy portrayed Temer as "Neoliberal vampire", while one of school's wings put anti-Dilma demonstrators of 2015 and 2016 as manipulated idiots using ducks who were symbol of FIESP (São Paulo's Industrial Federation) anti-tax campaign. They got a surprising 2nd place in carnival, who was won by traditional Beija Flor, who had a political theme, but with a more "anticorruption" bias (Beija Flor is led by mobster Aniz Abraão David who has 48 years conviction for bribery, money laundering and forming a criminal syndicate).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Edit: Apparently some TSE ministers said that Lula being banned from running is inevitable, and he will probably be officially banned from running in September.

What a convenient timing.

[buritobr]

Probably, Guilherme Boulos will be the PSOL candidate for president, and Sonia Guajajara will be her running mate. Guilherme Boulos is the leader of the Homeless Workers Movement (MTST). He is 35, the minimum age to run for president. Sonia Guajajara is the first native to be in a ticket.
Guilherme Boulos is not officially member of the PSOL yet, but he will join the party. PSOL is considered a party of the "university left" and the leader of a popular movement can help the party to leave the ivory tower.

[RodPresident]

Today started World Social Forum in Salvador, my home city. World Social Forum was an event created as response to Davos, by altermondialist movements. I went to Opening Demonstration with people of a lot of countries, like Morocco, Belgium, France. I even met a France Insoumise deputy (Éric Coquerel). Legitimate president Dilma Rousseff will come to Salvador, as former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva. Among foreign leaders, former presidents of Uruguay (José Mujica), Ecuador (Rafael Correa), Honduras (Manuel Zelaya) and Paraguay (Fernando Lugo) are expected. Presidential candidate Guilherme Boulos will come too.

[RodPresident]

Today, Rio de Janeiro town councillor Marielle Franco (PSOL), 38, was murdered after denouncing policemen for a murder. Rio's police is under Federal control some weeks. She was black human rights activist and was 5th most voted town councillor. Along her, her driver was also murdered.

[MAINEiac4434]

Today, Rio de Janeiro town councillor Marielle Franco (PSOL), 38, was murdered after denouncing policemen for a murder. Rio's police is under Federal control some weeks. She was black human rights activist and was 5th most voted town councillor. Along her, her driver was also murdered.

Jesus. RIP.

[Lord Halifax]

Bolsonaro has offered the VP spot for the Party of the Republic (PR), more specifically to senator Magno Malta from Espirito Santo. Magno is not exactly a surprising choice, he always seemed to be close to Bolsonaro and by having him as VP, Bolsonaro can have way more ad time on TV.

Malta was one of the fiercest supporters of the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff on the senate and unsurprisingly, he is a religious conservative like Bolsonaro.

Why is that?

[RodPresident]

Lula has been doing a caravan in the last days in the south region of Brazil, yesterday, two of the buses in the caravan have been hit by shots, most people planning to run in the upcoming election have posted things like "this is an attack to the Brazilian democracy" or similar stuff in social media, Bolsonaro was the only one I've seen so far not saying something like that, but attacking Lula and his party because of all the corruption scandals they're involved.

There are some people saying that this has been an "inside job" and that Lula and his party actually did this.

Senator Ana Amelia (PP) gave support to people who used lashes against pro-Lula people in RS. PP of Rio Grande do Sul was state section who retained most anticommunism from Arena's times. Progressive Party is direct heir of pro-military dictatorship parties Arena and PDS.
Today, a bunch of Temer's friends were arrested in connection with Port of Santos affair. Temer and allies have a lot of influency in Port of Santos since FHC's government. Jose Yunes, former minister Wagner Rossi, owners of port operators,  and former police colonel Joao Batista Lima were arrested. Lima is seen as Temer's right-hand man and as Temer's "orange" in one farm.

[Simfan34]

Today, protests happened in 23 states (plus the Federal District), most of them, against Lula and his party. The protests were today because tomorrow, the Supreme Federal Court will judge Lula's habeas corpus, if the STF rejects it, Lula is most likely going to jail, but if they accept it, then he is free, at least for now.

There's already a pretty good idea of how each judge will likely vote, there are eleven judges, Cármen Lúcia, Edson Fachin, Luís Roberto Barroso, Luiz Fux e Alexandre de Moraes are all likely voting against the habeas corpus and Gilmar Mendes, Ricardo Lewandowski, Marco Aurélio Mello, Celso de Mello e Dias Toffoli are all likely voting for it.

Rosa Weber is the judge newspapers are most unsure about how she will vote, some say she will vote in favor but nobody is sure.


Edit:

Yesterday, general Luiz Gonzaga Schroeder Lessa said that if Lula ends up being a candidate "there is no other option that isn't a military intervention" and now, general Villas Boas said that "the Brazilian army is attentive to it's institutional missions" and other generals have made statements supporting Villas Boas.

As I've been saying:

Villas Boas: Army is in state of "shock, consternation, and concern"

Villas Boas: Armed Forces are most trusted institution because of "values, ethics, and traditions", celebrates opinion poll showing 84% trust in military while presidency is trusted by just 3%

Imagine if Joseph Dunford were to talk in this manner with the background of everything that's been happening to Trump right now. We'd find that very odd, right?

What is the mandatory retirement age for officers in Brazil? Villas Boas is 66, but I see that his predecessor as Army chief, Gen. Enzo Peri, was 66 when he took office and was chief for seven years. In other words-- how long can we expect Villas Boas to be looming over Brazilian politics?

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Rosa Weber, the Supreme Court judge seen as the swing vote in the case of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, has voted to reject the former president’s plea to remain at liberty while he appeals a criminal conviction.  The votes are now 4 x 1 against Lula, with 6 judges still to vote

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How have the non-PT parties reacted to members of the military musing on mutiny?

[RodPresident]

What is the mandatory retirement age for officers in Brazil? Villas Boas is 66, but I see that his predecessor as Army chief, Gen. Enzo Peri, was 66 when he took office and was chief for seven years. In other words-- how long can we expect Villas Boas to be looming over Brazilian politics?

Aparently, the mandatory age of retirement is either 70 or 75, but I'm not entirely sure.

The current minister of defense, Joaquim Silva e Luna said that there won't be any coup and everyobody can stay calm, but Villas Boas himself is quiet, and even if he denies, I still wouldn't be completely sure there won't be a coup, the Thai military denied the possibility of a coup for many time and look how that turned out.

Lula's Habeas Corpus judgment will be starting in around 10 minutes.

Silva e Luna is himself a former Chief of Staff of Brazilian Army and he's first former general officer to serve as Minister of Defense since post's creation. But Villas Boas's tweets were very irresponsible and he should be dismissed. But Villas Boas is very likely to retire in sometime, as he suffers a neurodegenerative disease (sometimes he appears in wheelchair).

[Babeuf]

The assassination of Marielle Franco, Bolsonaro a serious contender for the presidency, threats of military coups... Truly scary times in post-impeachment Brazil, and it seems like the awfulness is only accelerating.

Also, without commenting on the merits of their alleged crimes, Lula in prison while Temer remains president is just a slap in the face.

[MAINEiac4434]

Brazil is o the ropes right now and needs a unifying, above-the-fray figure to enter the presidential race.

[Sir Mohamed]

I'm glad Lula is not allowed to return to power. He's a corrupt dude just like Temer, only a left wing one. Brazil needs a fresh new start, but don't know whether there is a strong center-left candidate available. I had a good impression of the dude who ran in 2014?

[RogueBeaver]

Arrest warrant has been issued.

[seb_pard]

What a ing circus, this is a joke. The executive is full of (confirmed) corrupt politicians and criminals (and congress...). They don't care if Lula is guilty or not about that apartment thing, they only care to eliminate him, because they know that if he runs, he wins.

This is beyond pathetic.


Well, at leas I have money on a brazilian fund, and everyone knows that this is the best thing that could happen to brazilian stocks (full of sh**tty companies that depends on right wing politicians that will not liberate the market, but will deteriorate social programs like Bolsa Familia)

[MaxQue]

Hopefully the left is arming itself to be able to counter-coup once the army install Bolsanaro.