Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Mike88]

Wow, watching the presidential ads really shows how unequal the time is. While some candidates get barely a few seconds, Alckmin and Haddad get a ton of time (and I assume Haddad would get even more if his coalition was broader, he seems to have lost several allies compared to 2014).

As for the Congressional ones, they are quite small, particularly for small parties! Some barely have enough time to say their name!

Finally, what's with the 2 digit codes for presidential candidates and 4 digit codes for house candidates? What are they used for?

Voting machine used in Brazil

Because voting in Brazil is 100% electronic, each party has a certain number it is identified as: PT is 13, PSDB 45, and so on. Voting machines only have numbers. For federal house candidates, i believe it just the number of the party, the first two, and then the number of the candidate, 43, 56, 25 and so on. For federal senator, it's the party number plus just one number: 1, 2 or 3, i believe. For state member candidates, it's also the party number plus 3 other numbers: 245, 515, 421, and so on.

More broadcasts. Election broadcast for state house member candidates, from São Paulo state: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RUQLfG1H9k

PT has a clown as a candidate, literally. Alessandro Azevedo "O Palhaço Charles" 13000 

[MAINEiac4434]

Guilherme Boulos is one of my favorite national level candidates in recent memory.

If there was ranked choice, I’d go Boulos 1st, Haddad 2nd and Gomes 3rd.

[jaichind]

CNT/MDA poll 

Bolsonaro   28.2
Haddad       17.6
Gomes        10.8
Alckmin        6.1
Silva            4.1

In runoff scenarios:
Gomes 37.8% vs Bolsonaro 36.1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs Haddad 35.7%
Bolsonaro 38.2% vs Alckmin 27.7%
Bolsonaro 39.4% vs Marina Silva 28.2%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What I only hear while watching TV spots in Portuguese:




I guess there is no translation to English?

[BBD]

CNT/MDA poll 

Bolsonaro   28.2
Haddad       17.6
Gomes        10.8
Alckmin        6.1
Silva            4.1

In runoff scenarios:
Gomes 37.8% vs Bolsonaro 36.1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs Haddad 35.7%
Bolsonaro 38.2% vs Alckmin 27.7%
Bolsonaro 39.4% vs Marina Silva 28.2%

Looks like it's gonna be Bolsonaro vs Haddad. Good grief.

[Lord Halifax]

CNT/MDA poll 

Bolsonaro   28.2
Haddad       17.6
Gomes        10.8
Alckmin        6.1
Silva            4.1

In runoff scenarios:
Gomes 37.8% vs Bolsonaro 36.1%
Bolsonaro 39% vs Haddad 35.7%
Bolsonaro 38.2% vs Alckmin 27.7%
Bolsonaro 39.4% vs Marina Silva 28.2%

Any path for Gomes to catch up to Haddad?

[BundouYMB]

Depressing poll. Gomes has a long track record as a successful executive in various positions, and Haddad has a short track record comprised mostly of failure. Haddad won 17% of the vote when he ran for reelection as mayor.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is a good article on Gomes:

https://medium.com/@angrysigh/the-enfant-terrible-90eaeb1658c0

It goes without saying though, that he'd be a better candidate than Haddad, who has no appeal to the middle class, little respect or clout in the NE (where the left need high turnout) and in general is a screw up. He completely flamed out in his last mayoral elections against a right wing cretin, for example.

[seb_pard]

This is a good article on Gomes:

https://medium.com/@angrysigh/the-enfant-terrible-90eaeb1658c0

It goes without saying though, that he'd be a better candidate than Haddad, who has no appeal to the middle class, little respect or clout in the NE (where the left need high turnout) and in general is a screw up. He completely flamed out in his last mayoral elections against a right wing cretin, for example.

I'm not expert at all in Brazilian politics, but I think that is too harsh on Haddad. He lost badly in 2016, but that was in a time that the PT brand was toxic and nobody was capable of fight against that. I friend from Sao Paulo (who is undecided between Ciro and Haddad) told me that he was actually a good mayor and make tangible things. He didn't vote for Haddad the first time (he is an anomaly, comes from a right wing family and works in investment banking but has drifted to the left due to social issues). He is unkown in the NE because he started in the south and he wasn't in the first line but unlike many in PT isn't involved in corruption cases.

Though Ciro is a great politician, but the choice is not terrible, I really think that on the left Brazilians have good alternatives.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

How extremist is Bolsonaro actually?

[brucejoel99]

How extremist is Bolsonaro actually?

In 1993, as a newly elected lawmaker, he called for a return to military rule, saying, "I am in favor of a dictatorship."

He has promised to empower the security forces to use harsher tactics against criminals, arguing that the police should be allowed to kill more of them.

On his website, he highlights his advocacy for lowering the age of criminal responsibility, defending the right of citizens to bear arms, & promoting what he calls Christian values.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How extremist is Bolsonaro actually?

On several occasions he has defended or called for the execution and torture of his political enemies (including Presidents FHC and Rousseff); he claimed that policemen who don't kill people are useless, and that they should be rewarded for every criminal they kill; he said that homosexual children should be beaten and he is a proud opponent of democracy. Very interesting to see people rightly decry Maduro while they cheer on this charlatan.

[buritobr]

The center-left is divided. Ciro Gomes supporters are trying to convince Haddad supporters that Ciro would beat Bolsonaro easier in the runoff. The right is divided too. Alckmin campaign is trying to convince that Bolsonaro could not defeat Haddad in the runoff, but Alckmin could. Some Alckmin supporters are trying to portray him as a centrist in order to convince the voters to avoid the "runoff of extremists". However, it is very hard to convince that Haddad is an extremist.

[buritobr]

Just to make some fun: which candidates would the famous economists endorse

François Quesnay: Jair Bolsonaro
Adam Smith: Álvaro Dias
David Ricardo: Geraldo Alckmin
John Stuart Mill: Marina Silva
Friedrich List: Cabo Daciolo
Karl Marx: Guilherme Boulos
Schumpeter: Geraldo Alckmin
John Maynard Keynes: Ciro Gomes
Michal Kalecki: Haddad
Raul Prebisch: Ciro Gomes
Paul Sweezy: Guilherme Boulos
Ludwig von Mises: Jair Bolsonaro
Friedrich Hayek: João Amoedo
Milton Friedman: João Amoedo
James Tobin: Haddad
John Kenneth Galbraith: Haddad

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

will Novo enter parliament?

[DC Al Fine]

Is there any good demographic polling for the presidential race? I'm curious how the various candidates do among different groups (gender, age, education, religion, income, etc)

[jaichind]

XP/Ipespe poll

Bolsonaro  28 (+2)
Haddad      16(+6)
Gomes      11 (-1)
Alckmin      7 (-2)
Silva          6 (-2)

Runoff
Bolsonaro 41% vs 38% Haddad (used to be 40-38 last poll)
Gomes 40% vs 35% Bolsonaro
Alckmin 38% vs 31% Haddad
Bolsonaro 39% vs 39% Alckmin
Bolsonaro 40% vs 35% Marina Silva
Gomes 37% vs Alckmin 35%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How common is ticket splitting? e.g. will Bolsanaro bring in a whole army of relatively anonymous drones from his party, or will Bolsanaro voters continue to vote PSDB/Democrats downvallot?

[seb_pard]

Is there any good demographic polling for the presidential race? I'm curious how the various candidates do among different groups (gender, age, education, religion, income, etc)

Income

2 minimum wages or less

Haddad - 20%
Bolsonaro - 19%
Ciro - 13%
Alckmin - 10%
Marina - 9%

2 - 5 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 34%
Haddad - 14%
Ciro - 14%
Alckmin - 9%
Marina - 6%

5 - 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 15%
Amoêdo - 6%
Alckmin - 6%
Alvaro - 5%
Marina - 3%

more than 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 11%
Amoêdo - 9%
Alckmin - 7%
Alvaro - 2%
Marina - 1%

The key factor IMO

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks NMR

Is there any good demographic polling for the presidential race? I'm curious how the various candidates do among different groups (gender, age, education, religion, income, etc)

Income

2 minimum wages or less

Haddad - 20%
Bolsonaro - 19%
Ciro - 13%
Alckmin - 10%
Marina - 9%

2 - 5 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 34%
Haddad - 14%
Ciro - 14%
Alckmin - 9%
Marina - 6%

5 - 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 15%
Amoêdo - 6%
Alckmin - 6%
Alvaro - 5%
Marina - 3%

more than 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 11%
Amoêdo - 9%
Alckmin - 7%
Alvaro - 2%
Marina - 1%

The key factor IMO

The well off and well educated  voting for the most socially reactionary candidate? How retro

[EPG]

Pretty much true for Trump too, though more ambiguous.

[buritobr]

No surprise Bolsonaro is polling better among the richest. He is the candidate of the rich people. Each class defends its interests.

[buritobr]

will Novo enter parliament?

I expect NOVO to get at least some federal deputies in states from the south and southeast like Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, specially in Minas, where their candidate for governor, Romeu Zema, has 7% in the polls is in third place.

Problably yes. São Paulo has 70 federal congressmen. So, there is one seat for ~1,4% of the total vote. Amoedo is polling ~3% in São Paulo. If everyone who votes for Amoedo votes for NOVO in the legislative election too, NOVO will win two seats in São Paulo.

[mvd10]

I looked up the Datafolha polls from 2006, 2010 and 2014 and the PSDB candidates won 56%, 58% and 65% in the respective run-offs. Keep in mind that only won 39% in 2006 and 44% in 2010. Since the 2006 election Brazil has had a huge class divide in politics, so I guess Bolsonaro winning over wealthy voters is not that special, especially when you take into account that the PT candidate seems to be the only other option.

[seb_pard]

New poll from DataPoder 360

Results (In portuguese)




Run-off




Breakdown run-off between Bolsonaro and Haddad
(By sex, age, education*, family income** and region)



*não foi à escola= didn't go to school, fundamental=elementary school, medio=high school
**sem renda fixa=without fixed income, SM=salário mínimo=minumum wage