Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

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Interesting fact:

From what I understand, Bolsonaro could get more than 70 million votes in the runoff, if he gets 60% in a 80% turnout election.

That would beat Obama's 69.5 million in the 2008 election.

Maybe I'm wrong, but wouldn't this also be the most votes for any democratically elected candidate on the planet ?

Edit: no, Indonesia candidates got more votes.

I suppose we can't count the Indian President because of their crazy electoral college system that uses the 1971 census.

[Beet]

Amazing article on Operation Car Wash by the Guardian from June 2017 by Jonathan Watts. Concludes:

"In the long term, many still hope Car Wash will ultimately make Brazil a fairer, more efficient nation, run by cleaner, law-abiding politicians. But there is also a risk that the operation will shake the country’s fragile democracy to the ground and clear the way for a rightwing evangelical theocracy or a return to rule by dictators. Whether or not this purge proves a cure for Brazil will depend not just on who falls, but on who follows."

[DavidB.]

Even if Bolsonaro does turn out to be very authoritarian, theocracy seems a misnomer here.

[jaichind]

DataPoder360 poll has Bolsonaro ahead 57 to 31 which maps to 64 to 36 when filtering out undecided or null. 

[jaichind]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

[Senator Incitatus]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

Are they required? Politically he has no reason to risk it.

[BBD]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

Are they required? Politically he has no reason to risk it.

Yeah, why would Bolsonaro bother? It makes no strategic sense, considering his commanding position in the polls. His supporters will write it off without question.

Even if he did consent to debate, it wouldn't make a difference anyway. He's going to crush Haddad, sad to say.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Map predictions anyone? I’m thinking Jair wins everything from Minas south and everything west of Para with huge margins

[Tender Branson]

Wow, the latest 3 polls have Bolsonaro at 59-41, 60-40 and 64-36 among valid votes.

[DavidB.]

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rejection

Haddad 54%
Bolsonaro 41%

95% of Bolsonaro said they are sure of their vote and 5 % said they might change their it.

89% of Haddad voters are sure of their vote and 10% said they might change their it.

67% of all voters think the debates are very important but 76% wouldn't change their vote because of them. 73% think Bolsonaro should attend the debates.

This race is over.

[jaichind]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

It isn't based of any order from doctors, it was his choice. He is already way up ahead on the polls, going to the debate doesn't make sense, Lula also skipped a lot of debates back in 2006. Bolsonaro keeps saying he won't debate with a puppet.

So the political cultural in Brazil is that no debating just because you are ahead not lead to political blow-back ?  If a popular USA incumbent who is well ahead in the polls refuse to debate then his or her poll ratings will fall quite a bit in my view.

[jaichind]

Valid votes

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rejection

Haddad 54%
Bolsonaro 41%

95% of Bolsonaro said they are sure of their vote and 5 % said they might change their it.

89% of Haddad voters are sure of their vote and 10% said they might change their it.

67% of all voters think the debates are very important but 76% wouldn't change their vote because of them. 73% think Bolsonaro should attend the debates.

This race is over.

If there are no debates and no blow-back for Bolsonaro  then given these rejection rates for Haddad I find it hard to see how Haddad wins.  I still think the final result will be a lot closer than these polls suggest.

[Hydera]

How did Bolsonaro get away not attending any debates?  Is it still based on doctor's orders?

It isn't based of any order from doctors, it was his choice. He is already way up ahead on the polls, going to the debate doesn't make sense, Lula also skipped a lot of debates back in 2006. Bolsonaro keeps saying he won't debate with a puppet.

So the political cultural in Brazil is that no debating just because you are ahead not lead to political blow-back ?  If a popular USA incumbent who is well ahead in the polls refuse to debate then his or her poll ratings will fall quite a bit in my view.

For democrats sure, but for republicans if they can forgive trump for the access hollywood tape they can forgive him for not attending a debate.

[DavidB.]

If there are no debates and no blow-back for Bolsonaro  then given these rejection rates for Haddad I find it hard to see how Haddad wins.  I still think the final result will be a lot closer than these polls suggest.

I think the result will be something like this if no major changes happen in the race. I don't think it will necessarily tighten. There are many non-Bolsonaro voters in the first round who will not vote for Haddad. They're not just in denial about their final choice, they really refuse to vote for him.

[Senator Incitatus]

Wow, the latest 3 polls have Bolsonaro at 59-41, 60-40 and 64-36 among valid votes.

This will be a complete landslide. Regardless of us foreigners' opinions, Bolsonaro will have a strong public mandate. The people support him. He may get a stronger result than Lula ever did.

In that sense, he is not comparable to LePen or Trump or any other new right-winger; he is leagues ahead. (Maybe Salvini is close if you consider M5S as under his influence.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The point is that his injuries mean that he's good a really good excuse for ducking the debates - if he didn't have them then you'd probably see a serious attempt to hammer him on the issue. As it is... well, he really is a diabolically clever little monster.

This race is over.

It's been as good as over since those rumours about a possible first round victory circulated on election night. And quite possibly since Haddad established a clear lead over Gomes after receiving Lula's benediction.

[DavidB.]

And quite possibly since Haddad established a clear lead over Gomes after receiving Lula's benediction.

You're probably right here.

[Beet]

How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

[Hydera]

How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

Polls didnt predict how strong he'll be on the first round. He was polling in the 30s and got 46% as if a monolithic amount of undecideds broke for him which probably happened. Plus he had strong support in the Brazillian evangelical community and while their 25% of Brazil's population. A strong turnout of these voters combined with other brazillians divided with other candidates as well as people voting blank/null etc. Did well to boost his numbers.

[Zuza]

Both Haddad and Ciro are trying to use this to make the Supreme Electoral Court contest Bolsonaro's candidacy and make him (and his running mate) drop out, Haddad also is trying to get Bolsonaro to be ineligible for eight years.

It would be insane if both people with by far the highest chances to win (Lula and Bolsonaro) were disqualified from running.

Just in case: what happens if Bolsonaro drops out? Haddad stays as the sole candidate?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

Because some idiot stabbed him.

[DC Al Fine]

How did Bolsonaro surge so fast? He has doubled his support in like a month.

Because some idiot stabbed him.

Cautionary tale for the wishing violence on politicians crowd.

[Lord Halifax]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

What does that mean? That no one can run for more than one term?

[Hydera]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

Also, here are some Ibope state polls about the presidential race:

Amapá

Jair Bolsonaro 52%
Fernando Haddad 48%

Amazonas

Bolsonaro 61%
Haddad 39%

Federal District

Bolsonaro 70%
Haddad 30%

Mato Grosso do Sul

Bolsonaro 64%
Haddad 36%

Minas Gerais

Bolsonaro 62%
Haddad 38%

Pará

Haddad 51%
Bolsonaro 49%

Rio de Janeiro

Bolsonaro 65%
Haddad 35%

Rio Grande do Norte

Haddad 57%
Bolsonaro 43%

Rio Grande do Sul

Bolsonaro 59%
Haddad 41%

Rondonia

Jair Bolsonaro 78%
Fernando Haddad  22%

Roraima

Jair Bolsonaro 77%
Fernando Haddad  23%

Santa Catarina

Jair Bolsonaro 74%
Fernando Haddad 26%

São Paulo

Bolsonaro 63%
Haddad 37%

Sergipe

Haddad 67%
Bolsonaro 33%

Dat underperformance in Sao Paulo.  Not that it matters since he'll outperform Aecio in places like Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro but my guess is that he does do better in SP on election day unless some magic happens in which Haddad overperforms expectations(and still loses)

[Lord Halifax]

Anti-Bolsonaro rallies happened in 29 cities today across 15 states. Pro-Bolsonaro rallies have been organizes and will happen tomorrow. Nothing that relevant happened today except that.

Bolsonaro said he'll try to get rid of re-elections. Marina is going to meet with Popular Socialist Party (PPS) leader to talk about fusing the parties.

What does that mean? That no one can run for more than one term?

He didn't specify if it was only for certain offices such as president or not.

So he isn't planning on running for reelection?