Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[EnglishPete]

The First roundf of the Brazil Presidential election is due to take place 7th October 2018 with a second round if necessary on 28 October.

This is the latest presidential poll from last month from Datafolha. It indicates that Lula looks as though he's experiencing a surge of popularity since PT were thrown out of office. If he's allowed to run he looks in pole position right now.

The Impeachment and  PSDB's entry into government hasn't done any good for their popularity and their polling numbers have collapsed. In the 2014 election Aécio Neves was the main candidate of the right and finished second in both rounds (33.55% first round and 48.36% second round). The various possible PSDB candidates, Neves, Geraldo Alckmin (their 2006 candidate) and José Serra (their 2010 candidate), are awfully close to falling into fourth place. That would make Jair Bolsonaro (a character sometimes described as a Brazillian Donald Trump) the leading candidate of the right.

Even though Marina Silva's popularity has sunk heavily in comparison to Lula she's still risen in comparison to PSDB. That and the current President Temer's four percent rating (and two percent rating in Scenario 4) suggests that being in the new government with Temer is really dragging the PSDB down enormously.

Now its a long way out to be making any predictions based on polls but the present direction of travel is fairly stark in this poll.

[EnglishPete]

I realise that the above graphic will be completely illegible on many devices so here is the Scenario 1 (Neves as PSDB candidate) First Round for the above poll

17-18 March

Marina Silva 21
Aécio Neves 19
Lula 17
Jair Bolsonaro 6
Ciro Gomes 6

7-8 April

Lula 21
Marina 19
Aécio 17
Bolsonaro 8
Ciro 7
Temer 2


14-15 July

Lula 22
Marina 17
Aécio 14
Bolsonaro 7
Ciro 5
Temer 5


7-8 December

Lula 25
Marina 15
Aécio 11
Bolsonaro 9
Ciro 5
Temer 4


The other first round scenarios show the same pattern but are even worse for the PSDB. Latest figues above for those

Scenario 2   7-8 Dec

Lula 26
Marina 19
Alkmin 8
Bolsonaro 8
Ciro 6
Temer 4

Scenario 3

Lula 25
Marina 16
Serra 9
Bolsonaro 9
Ciro 6
Temer 4

[EnglishPete]

The second Round Scenarios show a similar pattern

Scenario 1

25-26 Nov 2015

Aécio 51
Lula 32

14-15 July 2016

Aécio 38
Lula 36

7-8 December

Lula 38
Aécio 34

[EnglishPete]

New Opinion poll from Vox Populi shows Lula continuing to storm ahead whilst marina Silva and possible PSDB candidates continue to stall. I believe that this is the first poll showing jair Bolsonaro getting to the second round (although this was so unexpected that they didn't ask about a second round scenario involving him)






http://cut.org.br/noticias/cut-vox-lula-vence-no-primeiro-e-segundo-turnos-em-todos-os-cenarios-pesquisados-e208/

[EnglishPete]

Very interesting new poll from Datafolha. The candidates of the PSDB and the PT have been the top two candidates in all of the last six Presidential elections in Bazil, going back to 1994. At the moment however they are in a death spiral in the polls as they are hit by corruption scandals. This latest poll presents scenarios for three possible OSDB candidates and in all three their candidate is polling in fourth place. As Jair Bolsonaro emerges as the leading candidate of the right in the polls this is the first poll to ask how he would do in the second round.

Poll taken 26-27 April 2,781 interviewees in 172 municipalities. Two percent margin of error with 95% confidence. Changes are from December Datafolha poll.

First Round

Scenario 1

Lula (PT): 30% (+5)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 15% (+6)
Marina Silva (Rede): 14% (-1)
Aécio Neves (PSDB): 8% (-3)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 5% (-)

Scenario 2

Lula (PT): 30% (+4)
Marina Silva (Rede): 16% (-1)
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 14% (+6)
Geraldo Alkmin (PSDB): 6% (-2)
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6% (-)

Scenario 3 (new scenario)

Lula (PT): 31%
Marina Silva (Rede): 16%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSC): 13%
João Doria (PSDB): 9%
Ciro Gomes (PDT): 6%


Second Round

Scenario 1

Lula 43% (+5)
Aécio Neves  27% (-7)

Scenario 2

Lula 43% (+7)
Alkmin 29% (-5)

Scenario 3

Marina 41% (-2)
Lula 38% (+4)

Scenario 5

Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 31%

Scenario 6

Lula 43%
Doria 32%

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879859-lula-amplia-lideranca-para-2018-e-bolsonaro-chega-a-2.shtml

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2017/04/1879971-veja-as-projecoes-do-datafolha-para-o-segundo-turno.shtml

The poll also incudes various scenarios if Lula is banned from running in the first round as well as scenarios where Sergio Moro (the Judge in the 'carwash' case) is a candidate, although he has not indicated that he will be one

[EnglishPete]

Lula has just been sentenced to nine and a half years in prison but is still free pending his appeal. Can the Brazilians here clarify whether or not he's also free to run for President whilst his appeal is pending.