Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[RodPresident]

Maybe this isn't the correct thread, but I didn't find a thread about brazilian politics in general. After the last labour reform, I read in some media in my country, that the current government is analyzing an electoral reform that would change the way the representatives would be elected, and the financing of political parties.
The article I read refers to the possibility and support of PSDB and some right-wing parties for a transition to a parliamentary system (is any general consensus about this in brazilian politics/society?) and the change from the current system (i think it's PR party-list) to a single non-transferable vote (SNTV) that it's only used according to the article in Afghanistan and Jordan and it's opposed by the majority of the academia. They also propose to eliminate re-election for executive mandates (president, governors, mayors), an increase of it from 4 years to 5 years and the end of compulsatory voting.
Is any of this reforms really taking place or it's just speculation?

Yes, our parliament is discussing now Political Reform. After ban on companies financing political campaigns and all scandals, discussions about campaign finance reform got strong. They're trying to find a system who matches with public financing of campaign.
Our system is a proportional open list where the aggregate vote by coalition candidates will determine the number of seats, while the order will be made by order of votes. This system has lot of critics because of "Tiririca effect", where a well-voted congressman gets enough votes to bring weaker ticket mates. This is named after congressman and clown Tiririca (PR, Sao Paulo) got elected with a lot of protest votes and helped to bring congressmen with 30k votes in Sao Paulo, while other with 100 k votes failed to be elected. But most bizarre situation of this kind was in 2002, when perennial candidate Eneas (then of Prona, Sao Paulo) ran for congress and got record 1,573,642 votes and brought a congressman who got only 275 votes, a number that usually can't elect a councilman even in small cities. Well-voted candidates ended not elected, like Luciana Genro in 2010 (PSOL, Rio Grande do Sul) and sports journalist Jorge Kajuru (PRP, Goias). This was already adressed by 2015 mini-reform where a candidate will need 10% of electoral quocient (number of votes to get one seat) to be electable. Other problem are coalitions, that allowed bizarre coalitions like DEM, PSDB, PSB PMDB and PC do B in Pernambuco, while PT failed to elect a congressman in Lula's birth state because allied candidates got most voted.
The reporter of political reform, Vicente Candido (PT, Sao Paulo) proposed to keep current system for 2018 general election and 2020 local elections and to change to mixed-member system in 2022. But more right-wing parties and big tent parties (DEM, PSDB, PP, PSD) wants to put SNTV (we call Distritao, or big-district system) system as transition rule because they want to keep traditional politicians stronger and to limit growth of more ideological parties. One of most notorius supporters is president Temer.
Most of critics of this transition rule say that this will prevent new candidates of trying to enter politics, while voting won't reflect people ideological positions weakening political parties. Because of that, some parties who rely in big-name candidates, like PR and PRB, and more ideological parties (PT, PC do B, PDT, PSOL). In current system, PT could get a boost from Lula's support, like in 2002, but in big district, they would be luckier to keep current seats. Bolsonaro's people also don't like this system, because they have plans to elect a ultraconservative bench in next year elections, with Bolsonaro's children as vote pushers in Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.
Congress needs to put this in vote before October 7, because electoral rules need to be approved 1 year before election. After Temer's charge voting, congressional works is almost stopped (Big Center parties desire to take some of PSDB positions in government), while government tries to get support to enlarge debt target from 139 billions of reals to 159 billions.

[RodPresident]

Far-right presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PEN, that is going to become Patriots) will do a tour in United States. He'll will be received by pro-market people like Brazil-US Trade Chamber and he'll meet Republican party officers. He wants to show to financial establishment that he's not more a nationalist, but a pro-business conservative.
Political reform in Congress is going to change political party financing, as big-district (Distritao) failed to get enough votes. Congress decided to forbid proportional coalitions from 2020 local elections and to create a progressive threshold (1.5% in 2018, 2% in 2022, 2.5% in 2026 and 3% in 2030) where parties who fail to get it won't be able to get public funds.

[RodPresident]

Well, since each day the election is getting close, I'm reviving this.

There have been some recent news about Luciano Huck, a television host for a program called "Caldeirão do Huck" (Huck's Cauldron in english) thinking about a possible campaign for president next year, I saw many websites claiming that he's party would likely be the Popular Socialist Party...

Knowing the average Brazilian, I wouldn't actually underestimate he's chances of winning if he runs.

Dr. Rey from "Dr. 90210" has said he's going to probably run, and he actually seems kinds serious about this, I saw somewhere that he wants to resurrect PRONA, that was a former Brazilian party, the party was known mostly because of Eneas Carneiro, who ran for president some times and got almost 8% of the vote in 1994. From one interview a saw, he seems to want an free market economy and at the same time, he seems to have a pretty nationalist rhetoric, Rey is currently in PEN, which is the party that Bolsonaro seeks to join, so in case he doesn't create the new PRONA and wants to run, it might be tough.

Rey actually already ran one time to be a congressman, but he lost.

who are the candidates of the other major parties or coalitions? does parties only work as a structure of a political figure only? does PR, Progresistas (who are centre-right?) support Bolsonaro?

Huck is a pro-business hack and he was very friend with Neves. FHC likes him (because he dislikes Alckmin who didn't stand for his legacy in 2006).
Bolsonaro is likely to go to Ecological National Party (a party for rent, created by an evangelical reverend) and he plans to change his name to "Patriots", following a wave that discards name "Party".
PC do B (Communist Party of Brazil), a former Hoxhaist party who's now democratic socialist, launched state legislator Manuela D'Avila, 36, (Rio Grande do Sul) as their candidate for Presidency. She served 2 times in congress as top voted in RS. Lula went to their party congress and Ciro Gomes sent a video to them. Probably, PC do B has her candidacy to ensure PT support to Flavio Dino's reelection bid in Maranhao.

[RodPresident]

Well, since each day the election is getting close, I'm reviving this.

There have been some recent news about Luciano Huck, a television host for a program called "Caldeirão do Huck" (Huck's Cauldron in english) thinking about a possible campaign for president next year, I saw many websites claiming that he's party would likely be the Popular Socialist Party...

Knowing the average Brazilian, I wouldn't actually underestimate he's chances of winning if he runs.

Dr. Rey from "Dr. 90210" has said he's going to probably run, and he actually seems kinds serious about this, I saw somewhere that he wants to resurrect PRONA, that was a former Brazilian party, the party was known mostly because of Eneas Carneiro, who ran for president some times and got almost 8% of the vote in 1994. From one interview a saw, he seems to want an free market economy and at the same time, he seems to have a pretty nationalist rhetoric, Rey is currently in PEN, which is the party that Bolsonaro seeks to join, so in case he doesn't create the new PRONA and wants to run, it might be tough.

Rey actually already ran one time to be a congressman, but he lost.

who are the candidates of the other major parties or coalitions? does parties only work as a structure of a political figure only? does PR, Progresistas (who are centre-right?) support Bolsonaro?

Huck is a pro-business hack and he was very friend with Neves. FHC likes him (because he dislikes Alckmin who didn't stand for his legacy in 2006).
Bolsonaro is likely to go to Ecological National Party (a party for rent, created by an evangelical reverend) and he plans to change his name to "Patriots", following a wave that discards name "Party".
PC do B (Communist Party of Brazil), a former Hoxhaist party who's now democratic socialist, launched state legislator Manuela D'Avila, 36, (Rio Grande do Sul) as their candidate for Presidency. She served 2 times in congress as top voted in RS. Lula went to their party congress and Ciro Gomes sent a video to them. Probably, PC do B has her candidacy to ensure PT support to Flavio Dino's reelection bid in Maranhao.

Another party announced their candidate, the party now was "NOVO" (NEW), NOVO seems to be one of, if not the most most liked Brazilian party on facebook (I didn't search that well actually, but it has a lot), but despite that, It's pretty small (according to Wikipedia, they have a little under 14.000 members), they announced that the former president of the party, João Dionísio Amoêdo. NOVO is a libertarian party that aims for ending the compulsory voting and privatizing Petrobras, Banco do Brasil, the Central Bank of Brazil and also public schools and hospitals. The party doesn't have a stance on many social issues like gay marriage.

You didn't tell that Amoedo is a banker, linked to Itau, largest Brazilian bank. Lot of PSDB-linked economists switched allegiances to New Party, like Gustavo Franco. They want to run former manager of Brazilian volleyball team, Bernardo Rezende, to be their candidate for Rio governorship. Rezende is a economist formed by PUC Rio (Brazilian Chicago School) and he was very friend with Neves (he's partner of one of best Aecio's friends in a network of fitness academies).

[RodPresident]

Lula will be judged about the whole Triplex thing on January 24, if he is convicted then he may be banned from running for office.

This thing is very dirty. They booked Lula's appeal judgment by Federal Appelations Court of Porto Alegre (who covers South region - including Moro's Paraná) in anniversary of stroke who killed Marisa Leticia da Silva, Lula's wife and during judiciary recess. Appeal will be judged by 3 judges, João Paulo Gebran, Moro's personal friend, who'll be reporter, Leandro Paulsen, who'll be reviewer and Victor Laus. If decision is made by a 2-1 vote, Lula still can appeal to other chamber of same trial, before going to Supreme Court of Justice (3rd level of justice). Time to Gebran to do a report about Lula's process took 100 days, when Car Wash processes take usually 275 days. Time between report and judgment of appeal was of 54 days, when they usually take 105 days. Even, they can assert that this time is smaller because Lula's age (people with more of 60 years have priority in Brazilian justice), but they judged Pedro Correa, who have 69 years, in 23 months, when they'll judge Lula in 6 months.
Now, they're rumoring Roberto Requião (PMDB-PR) as Lula's running mate or replacement. To run in Lula's ticket, he'll probably leave PMDB. Requião is a leftwing firebrand, even in PMDB. He has political experience (3 terms as governor and 2 terms as senator) that lacks in another PT candidates.

[RodPresident]

Aww, I liked Ronaldinho. Sad to know he’s far-right.

He's a dumb empty bag of wind. He'll lose. He isn't like Romario who was able to fool electors fighting against football crooks (Marco Polo del Nero, CBF president who can't leave Brazil was suspended by Fifa this week).

[RodPresident]

Yeah, the party denied he is running.

Lula is out, his sentence will arrive in january 24 and he is going to be ineligible after that, meaning the left is basically doomed before the election started because he is the only guy who could turn out the poorest voters. Voting is mandatory in Brazil but with faith in the political system at an all time low, people will either abstain or cast a blank vote without their favorite candidate, so the majority of Lula's votes are not transferable, only partisan leftists will vote for the candidate he is going to support.

It's Bolsonaro vs Alckmin at this point, real right winger vs phony establishment "right winger" (basically Trump vs Jeb), the left will suffer massive losses all over the country and be reduced to less than 20% of Congress, just like the bloodbath they suffered at the local elections in 2016.

Ciro could also have a shot at winning, because Lula is (most likely) out, they could look at Ciro as their second choice, obviously, not all of the Lula voters will vote for Gomes, but it could be enough to him to go to the second round with Bolsonaro, specially considering that the last Datafolha poll had him with 12%-13% of the vote in scenarios with no Lula, just 4% short of Marina's 16%-17%, and the last DataPoder360 shows Ciro tied with Marina (10% each), so if he could win just some more voters, he could make it to the 2nd round. And in scenarios with no Lula and no Marina, he actually appears in 2nd (12%-13%), with 1% more of the vote than Alckimin.

Ciro won't win lots of Lula voters at any state besides his home state (Ceará). Alckmin will control the airwaves with a massive coalition featuring nearly every party who currently supports the government and the local electoral machines, plus his party controls the largest state in the country. Ciro will have little TV time and no coalition, he is doomed. Only Bolsonaro can survive having basically no airwave time because his supporters are by far the most enthusiastic, he is the most followed brazilian politician on Facebook, ahead of Lula and miles ahead of guys like Alckmin and Ciro.

It's basically a fight between money (Alckmin) and enthusiasm (Bolsonaro) at this point.

I think that if Lula wasn't destroyed after almost 4 years of hard attacks, then he can be an influential power broker for election. Temer's impopularity will be put in PSDB account, who'll have to chose between please Temer, his coalition, their libertarian moralist wing (Black Heads), pro-Bolsonaro people. Alckmin in SP now is in 3rd place in polls, then he won't have incumbency advantage and he'll have problems in managing state sucession between lieutenant governor Marcio França who can take state machine if he doesn't get PSDB endorsement for state election, senator José Serra and mayor Joao Doria.
Lula should proof that he'd be able to transfer votes in 2018 1st semester to be able to muster an coalition. PT should have a candidate who has political experience that lacked in Rousseff to not be appointed as "2nd Dilma". Then Wagner is most likely to be candidate than Haddad, but he's very likely to be attacked by Judiciary in next year. I'm a Ciro supporter, but he has a problem into getting PT support when he doesn't show support to Lula in his fight against judiciary persecution. And Requião is showing this loyalty that can be rewarded with Lula's support to be a replacement candidate.
This election even a candidate who lacks money can be able to make campaign through social medias and blogosphere networks. This is the reason that Bolsonaro can be strong and Lula (and his likely replacement) will be strong too. And Lula's heir will have benefit of being a true anti-Temer candidate who Alckmin and Bolsonaro won't have.
One of main risks to Bolsonaro is if a moderate who does campaign based in anticorruption and pro-Car Wash rethorics. Marina Silva (Network) and Alvaro Dias (Podemos) are in this way. And PSB is in negotiations with former Chief of Justice Joaquim Barbosa.
And main news of day is that PMDB did an convention to change its name to MDB, dropping "Party" in a way to make better their public image while remembers his noble origins as anti-military dictatorship party.
And justice Gilmar Mendes (pro-Temer) sent to senate a sugestion of transforming Brazil's government system to a semipresidentialist regime, with a prime minister.

[RodPresident]

President de facto Temer (PMDB) ordered a Federal Intervention (direct rule) in Rio de Janeiro's state to "recover order" in public security (Civil Police, Military Police and Firefighters). Military Commander of the East, General of Army, Walter Braga Neto will be Rio's security chief, with full powers in this area. Governor Luis Fernando "Bigfoot" de Sousa supports direct rule as this relives him from one of focus of his problematic management. Rio was the state most affected by economic crisis in Brazil caused by opposition to legitimate president Dilma Rousseff (PT) and judicial procedures who made Petrobras stop investments and to divert to foreign contractors. Fall in oil prices is one of causes too,as fiscal incentives. Shipyards were closed and U$ 6 billion investments in ships were stopped only in Rio. And corruption denounces appeared carried by Carwash inquires. Former governor Sergio Cabral (PMDB) is in jail and "Bigfoot" is very likely to face problems in justice after leaving government.
In Rio's Carnival, Temer (PMDB) was criticized by Samba School Paraiso do Tuiuti who attacked Labor Reform with theme "My God, my God, is slavery finished?"!. One guy portrayed Temer as "Neoliberal vampire", while one of school's wings put anti-Dilma demonstrators of 2015 and 2016 as manipulated idiots using ducks who were symbol of FIESP (São Paulo's Industrial Federation) anti-tax campaign. They got a surprising 2nd place in carnival, who was won by traditional Beija Flor, who had a political theme, but with a more "anticorruption" bias (Beija Flor is led by mobster Aniz Abraão David who has 48 years conviction for bribery, money laundering and forming a criminal syndicate).

[RodPresident]

Today started World Social Forum in Salvador, my home city. World Social Forum was an event created as response to Davos, by altermondialist movements. I went to Opening Demonstration with people of a lot of countries, like Morocco, Belgium, France. I even met a France Insoumise deputy (Éric Coquerel). Legitimate president Dilma Rousseff will come to Salvador, as former president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva. Among foreign leaders, former presidents of Uruguay (José Mujica), Ecuador (Rafael Correa), Honduras (Manuel Zelaya) and Paraguay (Fernando Lugo) are expected. Presidential candidate Guilherme Boulos will come too.

[RodPresident]

Today, Rio de Janeiro town councillor Marielle Franco (PSOL), 38, was murdered after denouncing policemen for a murder. Rio's police is under Federal control some weeks. She was black human rights activist and was 5th most voted town councillor. Along her, her driver was also murdered.

[RodPresident]

Lula has been doing a caravan in the last days in the south region of Brazil, yesterday, two of the buses in the caravan have been hit by shots, most people planning to run in the upcoming election have posted things like "this is an attack to the Brazilian democracy" or similar stuff in social media, Bolsonaro was the only one I've seen so far not saying something like that, but attacking Lula and his party because of all the corruption scandals they're involved.

There are some people saying that this has been an "inside job" and that Lula and his party actually did this.

Senator Ana Amelia (PP) gave support to people who used lashes against pro-Lula people in RS. PP of Rio Grande do Sul was state section who retained most anticommunism from Arena's times. Progressive Party is direct heir of pro-military dictatorship parties Arena and PDS.
Today, a bunch of Temer's friends were arrested in connection with Port of Santos affair. Temer and allies have a lot of influency in Port of Santos since FHC's government. Jose Yunes, former minister Wagner Rossi, owners of port operators,  and former police colonel Joao Batista Lima were arrested. Lima is seen as Temer's right-hand man and as Temer's "orange" in one farm.

[RodPresident]

What is the mandatory retirement age for officers in Brazil? Villas Boas is 66, but I see that his predecessor as Army chief, Gen. Enzo Peri, was 66 when he took office and was chief for seven years. In other words-- how long can we expect Villas Boas to be looming over Brazilian politics?

Aparently, the mandatory age of retirement is either 70 or 75, but I'm not entirely sure.

The current minister of defense, Joaquim Silva e Luna said that there won't be any coup and everyobody can stay calm, but Villas Boas himself is quiet, and even if he denies, I still wouldn't be completely sure there won't be a coup, the Thai military denied the possibility of a coup for many time and look how that turned out.

Lula's Habeas Corpus judgment will be starting in around 10 minutes.

Silva e Luna is himself a former Chief of Staff of Brazilian Army and he's first former general officer to serve as Minister of Defense since post's creation. But Villas Boas's tweets were very irresponsible and he should be dismissed. But Villas Boas is very likely to retire in sometime, as he suffers a neurodegenerative disease (sometimes he appears in wheelchair).

[RodPresident]

Steelworkers' Union of ABC, Lula's political birthplace, is full of militants and Lula's sympathizers who are giving support to former President. MTST leader and PSOL presidential candidate Guilherme Boulos led 5000 homeless people to give support. Legitimate president Dilma Rousseff is also with him and lots of congressmen. Lula probably will wait PF to take him.

[RodPresident]

I've heard some small fireworks here where I live, but I'm not sure if they are because of Lula's prison. It's been confirmed that fireworks were lighted because of Lula's prison in some cities like Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba.

RIP Brazilian Democracy.

Hopefully, the left takes weapons and remove corrupt Temer, corrupt generals and corrupt judges.

So jailing corrupt people is against democracy?

Why Temer is not in jail then?

Because Brazil's law sucks and because of this he has legal immunity because he is the president, but he should be in jail, and not only him but most Brazilian politicians.

No, he's not going to jail, because the judges are corrupted by right-wing money.

Like Lewandowski and Toffoli? No, they're left wing, there are many left wing judges in Brazil too. Right wing politicians and politicians who aren't from parties like PT and PSOL are also jailed, remember Eduardo Cunha? Geddel? Sergio Cabral? Argôlo? And I'd like to remember that Moro condemned lobbyists linked to PMDB

I agree, Temer is probably not going to jail after his term ends, STF would likely save him (but I don't rule out anything, specially coming from the STF), but we shouldn't be saying that "democracy is destroyed" because one corrupt man was jailed, regardless of his political positions, every step to less corruption should be celebrated, specially in a country like Brazil.

If the most free market, libertarian politician in the country was jailed because of corruption, I'd still be happy and not saying that democracy was destroyed, because it's a step to less corruption and the left should do this too when a left wing corrupt guy is jailed.

But if you add the Army murdering left-wing politicians and the illegimate impeachment...

The number of politicians, specially left wing politicians, the army killed since the end of the military dictatorship (1985) is zero, zero politicians have been killed by the army since then, and if you're talking about Marielle, there is still no one who is officially guilty, no credible news source I've seen included the army as suspects (but some included the police).

And no, the impeachment wasn't a "coup" or "illegitimate" a coup is when a government is deposed illegally, the impeachment wasn't illegal, it was totally fine according to the law, article 85 of the constitution of Brazil establishes that it is an administrative misconduct of the president to violate the constitution, specially against:

I - the existence of the union
II - the exercise of the legislative power, the judiciary power, the public prosecutor and the states
III - the exercise of political, social and individual rights
IV - the security of the country
V - the probity in administration
VI - the federal budget
VII - the execution of laws and judicial decisions

Dilma disregarded the federal budget with her fiscal pedaling, the impeachment was totally justified, legitimate and legal, it wasn't a coup.

Impeachment was a fraud because TCU (Accountancy Court) allowed it for all presidents, but they created problems only for Dilma. And a lot of Congressman tried her not for it but for other things.
And Porto Alegre's appeal court skipped 257 cases to go to try Lula. Appeal's reporter is a Moro's friend and shares a lot of his world view. And Curitiba limited investigations only to after 2003, when there were corruption allegations from FHC's times.
Human rights crimes are worse since 2016 coup because they got "legitimacy" to their violence.
Here's a list of 24 murders since 2014 against indigenous, unionists, landless, homeless leaders http://operamundi.uol.com.br/conteudo/geral/49021/nao+e+so+marielle+conheca+mais+24+casos+de+liderancas+politicas+mortas+nos+ultimos+quatro+anos.shtml. And this is only a small part. And Justice usually works bad for this affairs. In Bahia, two businessman ordered a murder of a unionist (who was killed along her wife) in 2010 and they weren't even tried until now.

[RodPresident]

I've heard some small fireworks here where I live, but I'm not sure if they are because of Lula's prison. It's been confirmed that fireworks were lighted because of Lula's prison in some cities like Belo Horizonte, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Curitiba.

RIP Brazilian Democracy.

Hopefully, the left takes weapons and remove corrupt Temer, corrupt generals and corrupt judges.

So jailing corrupt people is against democracy?

Why Temer is not in jail then?

Because Brazil's law sucks and because of this he has legal immunity because he is the president, but he should be in jail, and not only him but most Brazilian politicians.

No, he's not going to jail, because the judges are corrupted by right-wing money.

Like Lewandowski and Toffoli? No, they're left wing, there are many left wing judges in Brazil too. Right wing politicians and politicians who aren't from parties like PT and PSOL are also jailed, remember Eduardo Cunha? Geddel? Sergio Cabral? Argôlo? And I'd like to remember that Moro condemned lobbyists linked to PMDB

I agree, Temer is probably not going to jail after his term ends, STF would likely save him (but I don't rule out anything, specially coming from the STF), but we shouldn't be saying that "democracy is destroyed" because one corrupt man was jailed, regardless of his political positions, every step to less corruption should be celebrated, specially in a country like Brazil.

If the most free market, libertarian politician in the country was jailed because of corruption, I'd still be happy and not saying that democracy was destroyed, because it's a step to less corruption and the left should do this too when a left wing corrupt guy is jailed.

But if you add the Army murdering left-wing politicians and the illegimate impeachment...

The number of politicians, specially left wing politicians, the army killed since the end of the military dictatorship (1985) is zero, zero politicians have been killed by the army since then, and if you're talking about Marielle, there is still no one who is officially guilty, no credible news source I've seen included the army as suspects (but some included the police).

And no, the impeachment wasn't a "coup" or "illegitimate" a coup is when a government is deposed illegally, the impeachment wasn't illegal, it was totally fine according to the law, article 85 of the constitution of Brazil establishes that it is an administrative misconduct of the president to violate the constitution, specially against:

I - the existence of the union
II - the exercise of the legislative power, the judiciary power, the public prosecutor and the states
III - the exercise of political, social and individual rights
IV - the security of the country
V - the probity in administration
VI - the federal budget
VII - the execution of laws and judicial decisions

Dilma disregarded the federal budget with her fiscal pedaling, the impeachment was totally justified, legitimate and legal, it wasn't a coup.

Impeachment was a fraud because TCU (Accountancy Court) allowed it for all presidents, but they created problems only for Dilma. And a lot of Congressman tried her not for it but for other things.
And Porto Alegre's appeal court skipped 257 cases to go to try Lula. Appeal's reporter is a Moro's friend and shares a lot of his world view. And Curitiba limited investigations only to after 2003, when there were corruption allegations from FHC's times.
Human rights crimes are worse since 2016 coup because they got "legitimacy" to their violence.
Here's a list of 24 murders since 2014 against indigenous, unionists, landless, homeless leaders http://operamundi.uol.com.br/conteudo/geral/49021/nao+e+so+marielle+conheca+mais+24+casos+de+liderancas+politicas+mortas+nos+ultimos+quatro+anos.shtml. And this is only a small part. And Justice usually works bad for this affairs. In Bahia, two businessman ordered a murder of a unionist (who was killed along her wife) in 2010 and they weren't even tried until now.

The fact that the TCU allowed other presidents to get away enters another discussion, if the impeachment was right or wrong, if it was moral or not, but that is not what I'm discussing, what I'm saying is basically that the impeachment, according to the Brazilian constitution simply isn't a coup because it's allowed by it, what Dilma did was an administrative misconduct and that's impeachable, other presidents also did it? Yes, should they have been impeached because they also committed an impeachable offense according to the constitution? Yes, Does this mean that what Dilma did was justified and she shouldn't have been impeached? No.

It's good to remember that the fact that Lula has been tried relatively fast can easily be explained by article 71 of the Statute of the Eldery, that explicitly says that people who are 60 years old or older (like Lula) have priority during any criminal process that include them.

Murders of political leaders do in fact occur, and I never said they didn't, what I said was that the army killed zero politicians since the end of the dictatorship in 1985, this doesn't equate to no political leader being killed. And it's true that justice fails to find and punish killers of many political leaders, but this isn't a problem only to left wing political leaders, this is a problem that most Brazilians have, regardless of their political leanings, according to O Globo, only about 5% of the cases of murder are solved, this is a general problem in Brazil.

Left wingers aren't the only ones that suffer with violence, a politician from PT assaulted man and caused him to go to the doctor because of a head injury, and the reason was almost surely about politics. MST, a left wing movement, is involved in multiple invasions of private property and there are cases where they actually cause a considerable amount of demage by setting things on fire and stealing cattle.

Trying to make rule of law with a gangster, like Eduardo Cunha, is comical... And that guy who went with a head injury made offenses against PT leaders and tried to interrupt one interview by senator Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ).
And MBL fake news' factory keeps acting as Artur do Val (who'll run for state legislator in Sao Paulo for DEM) altered Ciro's vídeo putting resources that gave intensity to supposed slap.
And another presidential candidate is Aldo Rebelo, former speaker of Chamber and minister to Lula and Dilma (Institutional Relations, Sports, Science and Technology and Defense) who joined Solidarity. He entered PSB last year after leaving his lifelong party PC do B (former hoxhaists who became democratic socialists), but he left due Barbosa's joining party. Solidarity is led by notorius crook Paulo Pereira da Silva, leader of Força Sindical trade union and one of Cunha's supporters until the end. One of Solidarity congressman, Wladmir Costa, made a tattoo (who later got discovered to be of henna) with Temer's name and brazilian flag before congresso voting one of Temer's indictments.

[RodPresident]

Can anyone here explain where Marina Silva stands ideologically? The foreign coverage of her I've seen is extremely vague on what she actually proposes to do.

Marina was member of PT until 2009, when she refused to endorse Dilma and launched her presidential bid by PV. She was a former rubber collector who became senator and Enviroment Minister in Lula's government. Her platform is very enviromentalist, against great infrastructure works in Amazon. In economics, she's somewhat neoliberal, supporting Central Bank's autonomy, labor and pension reforms, even that her congressional caucus opposes. Now, her party (Network) has only 2 deputies and 1 senator in Congress who leaves her in a very weak position.

[RodPresident]

New poll by CNT/MDA (May 9-12) Error margin: +/- 2.2%
With Lula
Lula (PT) 32.4%
Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 16.7%
Marina Silva (Rede) 7.6%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 5.4%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 4.0%
Álvaro Dias (Podemos) 2.5%
Fernando Collor (PTC) 0.9%
Michel Temer (MDB) 0.9%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL)0.5%
Manuela D´Ávila (PC do B) 0.5%
João Amoedo (Novo) 0.4%
Flávio Rocha (PRB) 0.4%
Henrique Meirelles (MDB) 0.3%
Rodrigo Maia (DEM) 0.2%
Paulo Rabello de Castro (PSC) 0.1%
Blank votes 18.0%
Undecided 8.7%
Without Lula 1
Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 18.3%
Marina Silva (Rede) 11.2%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 9.0%
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 5.3%
Álvaro Dias (Podemos) 3.0%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 2.3%
Fernando Collor (PTC) 1,4%
Manuela D´Ávila (PC do B) 0.9%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) 0.6%
João Amoedo (Novo) 0.6%
Henrique Meirelles (MDB) 0.5%
Flávio Rocha (PRB) 0.4%
Rodrigo Maia (DEM) 0.4%
Paulo Rabello de Castro (PSC) 0.1%
Without Lula 2
Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) 19.7%
Marina Silva (Rede)15.1%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) 11.1%
Geraldo Alckmin (PDT) 8.1%
Fernando Haddad (PT) 3.8%
Blank votes 30.1%
Undecided 12,1%.
Blank votes 29.6%
Undecided 16,1%
Runoff
Lula 45.7%
Bolsonaro 25.7%

Lula 44.4%
Marina 21.1%

Lula 44.9%
Alckmin 19.6%

Lula 49%
Temer 8.3%

Lula 47.1%
Meireles 13.3%

Bolsonaro 27.2%
Marina 27.2%

Bolsonaro 28.2%
Ciro 24.2%

Bolsonaro 27.8%
Alckmin 20.2%

Ciro 20.9%
Alckmin 20.4%

Marina 26.6%
Alckmin 20.2%

Rejection

Temer: 87.8%
Marina: 56.5%
Alckmin: 55.9%
Maia: 55.6%
Bolsonaro: 52.8%
Meirelles: 48.8%
Lula: 46.8%
Ciro: 46.4%
Haddad: 46.1%

[RodPresident]

Judge Rogerio Favretto, on duty for TRF-4, ordered release of presidential candidate, former presidente Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

[RodPresident]

Novo is a ultraliberal (almost libertarian) party founded by bankers and businessman who desires to sell all public enterprises and to deliver even public health and education to private owners. His main leader is Joao Dionisio Amoedo, former partner of Itau BBA (investment branch of largest brazilian private bank, Itau). One of their members is former Brazilian national volleyball team manager, Bernardo Rezende Bernardinho, who's economista formed in Rio's PUC (Brazilian Chicago School).

There's a wave among Brazilian parties to drop "party" name who many says that's a word linked to corruption and all of those things. First party to adhere was right-wing Democrats (formely PFL, Party of the Liberal Front). After that, other parties were created with new name (as Solidarity, led by fake trade unionist Paulo Pereira da Silva). And even powerful PMDB dropped party from its name, becoming again MDB, name of former anti-military dictatorship party. Podemos was formely PTN (National Labour Party), founded by Abreu family as a personal machine after they lost control of Sao Paulo's PTB, who serves as "rent party", non-ideological legends who are useful to politicians who want to keep their machines from big parties.
PTN was rebranded as Podemos, as they wanted to include direct democracy as one of their platforms. And Dias joined Podemos after regional problems with Parana's PSDB (he doesn't have good relations with governor Richa, as he hasn't endorsed his first election and was retained on ticket only because national party). And Podemos grew as a party distant from mainstream parties, although they don't keep a coherent line. And they now have 5 senators, Dias, Romario (RJ), Rose de Freitas (ES), Elmano Ferrer (PI) and Medeiros (MT). Freitas served as Temer's floor leader in 2016, while Romario and Dias voted against labor reform. Medeiros is a right-wing stalwart, while Ferrer went against Dilma's impeachment.

This election, Dias will join forces with Social Christian Party, who's a rent party too led by reverend Everaldo Dias, who was Aecio's auxiliary line in 2014, after supporting Dilma in 2010. Everaldo ran a very anti-state campaign, promoting privatizations, although he started in politics as Brizola's ally. Bolsonaro was set to be PSC presidential candidate but he had problems with Everaldo. Rabello de Castro, an economist with Phd in University of Chicago was serving Temer's government as IBGE (national statistics board) and BNDES (national development bank). He joined forces with Dias who wants to run as anti-corruption candidate (but Rabello's son-in-law was arrested by Car Wash).

[RodPresident]

Considering that Germany is the richest country to have a multi-party system, let's compare the Brazilian candidates to the German parties, in order to understand easier the ideologies of the candidates.
If the Brazilian candidates were German, which would be their parties?

Cabo Daciolo (NPD)
Jair Bolsonaro (AFD)
José Maria Eymael (CDU)
Álvaro Dias (CSU)
João Amoedo (FDP)
Henrique Meirelles (FDP)
Geraldo Alckmin (CDU)
Marina Silva (Grünen - but she is a little bit to the right than the german greens)
Lula / Haddad (SPD)
Ciro Gomes (SPD)
Guilherme Boulos (Linke PDS)
Vera Lúcia (Linke Wasg)
João Goulart Filho (Linke PDS)

My version would be:
Cabo Daciolo (BüSo, elected by Linke)
Jair Bolsonaro (AfD)
Eymael (Zentrum, marginal christian democrat party)
Alvaro Dias (Freie Wahler, former FDP, CDU)
Amoedo (LKR, former AfD)
Meirelles (FDP)
Alckmin (CDU)
Marina (ÖDP)
Lula/Haddad (SPD, supported by Linke historicals)
Ciro (SPD, historical, started in CDU, but moved to SPD)
Jango Filho (WASG)
Boulos (Die Linke-Die Grünen)
Vera Lúcia (some small trotskyist organization)

[RodPresident]

Ibope  August 20

With Lula
Lula 37%
Jair Bolsonaro 18%
Marina Silva 6%
Ciro Gomes 5%
Geraldo Alckmin 5%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Without Lula
Jair Bolsonaro 20%
Marina Silva 12%
Ciro Gomes 9%
Geraldo Alckmin 7%
Fernando Haddad 4%
Álvaro Dias 3%
Eymael 1%
Guilherme Boulos 1%
Henrique Meirelles 1%
João Amoedo 1%

Why is Lula not able to transfer his support to Haddad?

PT still says that Lula will be the candidate and Haddad is somewhat unknown. But there's a good analysis about São Paulo's voting intentions where Alckmin is in a very deep trouble.
https://www.ocafezinho.com/2018/08/21/ibope-analise-das-intencoes-de-voto-para-presidente-em-sao-paulo/

[RodPresident]

Looks like I'll be rooting for Silva now!

Silva supports right-wing economic policy as Central Bank's autonomy, austerity and other policies. I'm more supportive of Ciro Gomes.

[RodPresident]

Alckmin had bad news in last two days...
Parana's former governor and senate candidate Beto Richa (PSDB) was arrested along his wife Fernanda Richa for commanding a bribery scheme by state justice. Car Wash also ordered investigations on him. Along him, his brother was arrested and billionaire Joel Malucelli who is also suplente to presidential candidate Alvaro Dias. Malucelli is father-in-law to governor candidate Joao Arruda (PMDB). But Richa has more deep links to another two governorship candidates who are governor Cida Borghetti who was his lieutenant governor and Carlos Massa "Ratinho" Junior (PSD), son of famous TV host Ratinho (Brazilian's Jerry Springer) who was secretary in his cabinet. Many people say that Car Wash wants Richa arrested to show isention and that  Moro's wife is very linked to senatorial candidate Flavio Arns (Rede) who was Richa's running mate in first term.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, governor Azambuja (PSDB) was today target of investigation. His son was arrested as political allies. He was implied in Batista's brothers plea bargain as he was receiving bribes from cattle selling.
In Rio Grande do Sul, home state of Alckmin's running mate, Ana Amelia (PP), her own party is deserting her. Senate candidate Luis Carlos Heinze (PP) announced that he's endorsing Bolsonaro. RS PP is historically conservative and was going to support fully Bolsonaro, but Ana Amelia's nomination stopped it. And they resent Ana Amelia's endorsement of Manuela Davila (now Haddad's running-mate) in 2012 local election.