I strongly suspect that the actual solution to US health care problem will be to import health care services from Mexico
I mean, it is almost certain that there will be a big screw-up. First Republicans will happily repeal all the parts of the Obama set-up that make it sustainable. But they will, of course, struggle to repeal those provisions that, actually, make it costly. So, you will wind up in a situation where medical insurance business would, simply, become very unprofitable. Major insurers will retrench, by offering to serve only those segments of the market that are still tenable. Thus, if you work for a large employer, you will still be able to get insurance through a group contract. If you do not, and happen not to live in MA or another state willing to pass a similar local law, you will either have no insurance, or no insurance that would pay anything to you until you have, at least, sold your house to pay the under-the-deductible expenses. Within 3 or 4 years many fewer Americans will have insurance than before reforms started. So, what is the solution?
Of course! Mexico! We have doctors, hospitals, pharmacies, etc., etc. that are much, much cheaper. Personally I will be screwed: the prices will skyrocket, so I will be forced to start using much more the public healthcare (like most Mexicans I am eligible, but, having the money to do so, I tend to use the conveniences of the private sector). But for many Americans this will become the main way to access decent healthcare. If you need to program a surgery, you will fly to Monterrey. Buy antibiotics? Tijuana, of course! Childbirth? Mexico City is waiting!
The Angeles Group will build dozens of new hospitals all along the Texas border. Hospital Angeles Puerto Peñasco will be located right next to the new Camino Real Mar de Cortés - so that while a Phoenix resident has his heart surgery his wife can spend a few nice days on the beach. After a while, American kids, locked out of US medical schools (these will reduce the intake, to avoid increased competition in the sharply reduced medical services market), will start applying to Universidad La Salle and other private Mexican schools, so that, upon graduation, they would be able to work in the south-of-the-border hospitals, specializing in care of uninsured Americans. True, the sallaries will be lower: but they will still be high by Mexican standards, and the price of medical education will be a fraction of what it is in the US (and, of course, you can start earning money much earlier: medical degree takes five years after high school, and there is nothing like the ordeal of the American medical residency).
But, of course, with the major expansion of the anglophone US-oriented medical industry in Mexico, this will become very attractive. Insurance companies will start offering to pay for trips to Mexico. In fact, new Mexico-based insurers will emerge, offering insurance for Americans conditional on them traveling to Mexico. These will be much cheaper than traditional insurance policies - so major employers will start offering these packages, rather than those provided by US-based insurers.
So, in 2032 the newly-elected President Shrump will announce a major crack down on the outsourcing of US medical services to Mexico...
