1/17/17 CNN ORC Poll: Trump Approval at 40%

[Progressive]

Lowest ever for a president elect

http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/17/politics/trump-administration-approval-inauguration/index.html

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

CNN's polling was terrible during the election and their approval polls will be just the same.

National polls were off by 3 points at most.

[Tender Branson]

#fakepolling

[JA]

#fakepolling

Everything that doesn't promote the right-wing perspective and agenda is fake news. It's the conspiracy of the left-wing dominated establishment against real America.

[houseonaboat]

What's the highest it can go? He's alienated way too many people to get above ~55% (and that's being very generous) imo. Realistically he'll stay within the 35-45 range for most of his presidency.

[JA]

Yeah, Republicans might as well concede 2018, 2020 and 2022 at this point. Atlas and the polling industry never get it wrong, after all.

Yeah, as if anyone was saying that here.

[Blackacre]

okay, a couple of things.

One, national polls were only off by 2-3 percentage points. State polls were terrible in WI/MI/PA, states where there wasn't much polling in the final days of the election. So we can trust approval rating polls to be accurate.

Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.

Three, it's not guaranteed to be this bad for Trump forever. He could see higher approvals as time passes.

[AGA]

Polls were not as wrong as people say they were. After Comey, the polls shifted in Trump favor, but people thought that the results projected by the polls done in mid-October would still be accurate. There were Traflagar polls showing Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania in the final days of the election. In Wisconsin, though, polls were quite off, but the final result was is most of the margins of error. The final national polls were actually very accurate.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, Republicans might as well concede 2018, 2020 and 2022 at this point. Atlas and the polling industry never get it wrong, after all.

Yeah, as if anyone was saying that here.

I've seen two Democrats say that Republicans should focus on winning 2022 instead of 2018 and 2020 because Trump is guaranteed to be a disaster/one-termer. And yeah, someone on this forum predicted that the GOP would lose states like TX, UT and TN in 2018. I find it amazing that Democrats are still making these overconfident predictions, even after they got clobbered in 2014 AND 2016. But maybe third time's the charm for you guys, who knows?

And regarding this poll: Even if it is accurate, it is not surprising at all. Trump has always had terrible favorability numbers during the primaries and the GE campaign (especially in big, deep blue states like CA, NJ, IL, NY and MD - states that he doesn't need anyway). This isn't going to change overnight. He only won because the Dems nominated Clinton, after all.

And when you factor in polarization and demographics, a 53% or 54% approval rating is probably his absolute ceiling, no matter what he does. I could easily see him winning reelection with a 45% approval rating, though.

Two, yeah this is bad for a president-elect. 40% approvals or lower by 2018 and the midterms will be a bloodbath.

In the House? Yeah, even though he needs to be lower than 40% for the Ds to actually retake it. The Senate, though? If his numbers are in the 20s or 30s in CA, NY and MD but in the high 40s/low 50s in states like IN or MO, that won't help red state Democrats much. I'd be shocked if the GOP lost seats in the Senate in 2018.

[Shadows]

Why are people happy & over-confident? Such incompetent hacks.

People shouldn't be happy till Trump atleast goes below Bush's worst number, he has to go below 30% for people to be happy. This is nothing to be happy about, Trump was always like this. I want to see Trump crash & go to 20-25%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Why are people happy & over-confident? Such incompetent hacks.

People shouldn't be happy till Trump atleast goes below Bush's worst number, he has to go below 30% for people to be happy. This is nothing to be happy about, Trump was always like this. I want to see Trump crash & go to 20-25%.

He will, just give him a few months. Remember that he's not even in office yet, and this is still his honeymoon period.

[Dr. Arch]

The same overconfidence that led Ds to lose a very winnable senate this year will come back around to Rs. I highly doubt Rs will have full control for 4 years, much less 6.

[Figueira]

If Trump is still this unpopular in 2020, and Democrats nominate someone popular, they probably win. Neither of those are guaranteed though.

[Ljube]

Fake News Network producing fake polls.

Fake news at 11.

[Devout Centrist]

The same overconfidence that led Ds to lose a very winnable senate this year will come back around to Rs. I highly doubt Rs will have full control for 4 years, much less 6.

They'll have full control for 10 at least.

[jamestroll]

The same overconfidence that led Ds to lose a very winnable senate this year will come back around to Rs. I highly doubt Rs will have full control for 4 years, much less 6.

The only prediction we can make with any confidence right now is that Democrats will win one of the next several elections. Trump could well be reelected also.

I think 2018 will have encouraging results for Democrats but it may not be a mega wave. 2020 or 2022 have better potentials to be Democratic landslide years. Depending on circumstances of course.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

HAHAHA is this his peak?

[Ljube]

HAHAHA is this his peak?

Of course not.
Dem hacks on this forum live in an alternate universe.

[NeverAgain]

HAHAHA is this his peak?

Of course not.
Dem hacks on this forum live in an alternate universe.

Agreed, this is not a peak. This is the start of the approval rating cliff.

[DrScholl]

The problem for Trump is that he is disliked as a person, not just as President.

[Gabagool102]

I feel like, if Hillary was elected it would around the same approval rating, however this is terrible for trump.

[Progressive]

I feel like, if Hillary was elected it would around the same approval rating, however this is terrible for trump.

I bet you're right that her favorability would be low. However, I also bet she'd be at like 50% or 52% and there'd be wall-to-wall coverage on how unpopular she is.

[Pericles]

I feel like, if Hillary was elected it would around the same approval rating, however this is terrible for trump.

I agree that she too would be unpopular. It probably would be a bit higher than Trump's rating, her favorability was higher than his (not by much) and she might make some effort to reach out to those who didn't vote for her. I think both Trump and Clinton were likely one-term Presidents. On one hand, I don't want to bet against Trump, but on the other hand the evidence points to him being a one-termer.

[Xing]

There are reasons people despise Trump, so he clearly has his work cut out for him.

[Dr. Arch]

There are reasons people despise Trump, so he clearly has his work cut out for him.

He's not even trying.