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Author Topic: Canadian Provincial Redistribution, 2017  (Read 16162 times)
Krago
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« on: January 17, 2017, 07:11:48 pm »

There are two (and possibly three) Canadian provinces that will redraw their electoral boundaries in 2017.  They are:

- Alberta - The Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission (http://abebc.ca/) was appointed in late 2016 and has already started public hearings.  An interim report should be released by the end of May with the final report due by the end of October.  There is a fixed total of 87 electoral divisions.

- Ontario - The Ontario legislature voted last year to establish a Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/far-north-commission-1.3908208 to create one or two new provincial districts within the existing ridings of Kenora-Rainy River and Timmins-James Bay.  Once the members are appointed, they have three months to hold public hearings and issue a final report.

- PEI - Islanders voted in a plebiscite last year to replace their First-Past-the-Post electoral system with a Mixed Member Proportional model.  The website outlining the options suggested that two-thirds of members would represent constituencies and one-third would be elected from a province-wide list.  Whether this means adding 14 members to the PEI legislature, or reducing the number of districts from 27 to 18 has not been made clear.  Considering the clusterhug that occurred the last time the Island tried to redistribute their ridings, anything could happen.
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Krago
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« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2017, 07:13:51 pm »

Here's my attempt to equalize the populations of all 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions: https://goo.gl/DcCPF0.

The population statistics will be added once the 2016 Census figures are released on February 8.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2017, 09:17:15 pm »

I don't think anything is changing on PEI, because their Premier has decided he doesn't care what voters think.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2017, 12:05:10 pm »

Also, Ontario will be matching the Federal ridings that were redistributed in 2015 come 2018 election, minus the North as per Krago. So Queens Park will have either 122 or 123 (federally its 121, but if they maintain the current North then that is 1 more and if they add an additional riding that means 2 more then federally)
http://www.elections.on.ca/content/dam/NGW/sitecontent/2017/preo/Ontario%20Electoral%20Districts%202015.pdf
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toaster
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« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2017, 05:17:04 pm »

Also, Ontario will be matching the Federal ridings that were redistributed in 2015 come 2018 election, minus the North as per Krago. So Queens Park will have either 122 or 123 (federally its 121, but if they maintain the current North then that is 1 more and if they add an additional riding that means 2 more then federally)
http://www.elections.on.ca/content/dam/NGW/sitecontent/2017/preo/Ontario%20Electoral%20Districts%202015.pdf

They may add two additional ridings (on top of the one extra Northern Ontario has in Ontario already), so it would be 123 or 124, assuming it gets approved.
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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #5 on: January 22, 2017, 01:10:54 am »

Here's my attempt to equalize the populations of all 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions: https://goo.gl/DcCPF0.

The population statistics will be added once the 2016 Census figures are released on February 8.

Given the stated goal of equalized populations across all 87 districts, that's a pretty good map in my opinion. With that said, I have a few comments that the commission would likely be faced with if this map was presented in reality, even though following most of these comments would likely detract from equalizing population across districts:
  • An unfortunate disadvantage of the carving up of Lesser Slave Lake is that Alberta would be losing its only Indigenous-majority electoral district
  • Grande Prairie and the surrounding communities have historically been hostile to proposals that dramatically altered their electoral districts, as the folks up there value the relationships that different communities within each electoral district have built up. This proposal isn't as "radical" as what was actually proposed in the 2010 redistricting, but would likely still face opposition from those who would be moved out of Grande Prairie-Smoky
  • The actual population totals from the census may have a substantial impact on the representation from Calgary and Edmonton, compared to what the estimates currently on the website suggest. For instance, the estimates give Calgary's population to be over 1.3 million, while the actual total from the 2016 municipal census was more like 1.235 million. I think that Calgary will gain a 26th district, in reality, but won't go beyond that
  • Past commissions have tried to keep all of Calgary's and Edmonton's boundaries within the city limits of the respective cities, so I'm not sure the proposed districts of Calgary-North West and Edmonton-Westview-St. Albert would go over well. On a personal level, the Edmonton district makes sense, but Calgary-North West doesn't sit right with me, as it goes too far into the rural area. It would possibly make sense to have a "rurban" district combining NW Calgary just with the Bearspaw area, but that district wouldn't be nearly as sprawling as the one on this map.
  • If one must have "rurban" districts in Calgary, a combination that a friend had suggested might make sense would be putting the Tsuu T'ina Nation into Calgary-Glenmore, as the forthcoming section of the Ring Road will arguably make Calgary-Glenmore into more of a joint community of interest for the Tsuu T'ina than Rocky View County currently is.
  • The Bearspaw acreages in western Rocky View County, I would argue, have much more in common with the communities of Springbank and Elbow Valley to their south over the surrounding rural area to the northwest. I would refrain from splitting Bearspaw, Springbank, and Elbow Valley up.
  • I would foresee complaints from the portion of Red Deer that is outside of the city's two main ridings about potentials for having their voices cancelled out by the vast majority of rural territory in their new district
  • In terms of communities that may protest due to historical links being split up, Vermilion and Lloydminster, Okotoks and High River, and the constituent communities of Cardston-Taber-Warner stand out in my mind as some of the most likely prospects
  • The name Calgary-Currie wouldn't work for that electoral district anymore, as Currie Barracks would have moved into Calgary-Elbow. I would see Calgary-Killarney as a likely alternate name for the old Calgary-Currie
  • Minor point regarding Calgary communities: it would make more sense for Southwood to be joined with the other communities on the east side of 14 St W, most prominently Haysboro, due to stronger shared links. It also seems odd to have half of McKenzie Lake separated from the rest of McKenzie Lake and McKenzie Towne.
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Krago
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« Reply #6 on: January 22, 2017, 11:45:13 pm »

Here's my attempt to equalize the populations of all 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions: https://goo.gl/DcCPF0.

The population statistics will be added once the 2016 Census figures are released on February 8.

Given the stated goal of equalized populations across all 87 districts, that's a pretty good map in my opinion. With that said, I have a few comments that the commission would likely be faced with if this map was presented in reality, even though following most of these comments would likely detract from equalizing population across districts:

The name Calgary-Currie wouldn't work for that electoral district anymore, as Currie Barracks would have moved into Calgary-Elbow. I would see Calgary-Killarney as a likely alternate name for the old Calgary-Currie

What about Calgary-Redford or Calgary-Prentice (too soon?)  Four of the Famous Five don't have electoral divisions named after them, but I don't know if any had a connection to Calgary.

By the way, I read somewhere that Jim Prentice 'disclaimed' his seat rather than 'resigned' it, since he was never sworn in as the MLA after the election.  I've never heard the term before.
« Last Edit: January 23, 2017, 07:47:00 am by Krago »Logged
Krago
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« Reply #7 on: January 22, 2017, 11:47:09 pm »

P.S. What do you think of a Lloydminster-Cold Lake seat, as well as Lac La Biche-Bonnyville-St. Paul-Two Hills?
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adma
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« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2017, 10:15:43 pm »

What about Calgary-Redford or Calgary-Prentice (too soon?)  Four of the Famous Five don't have electoral divisions named after them, but I don't know if any had a connection to Calgary.

By the way, I read somewhere that Jim Prentice 'disclaimed' his seat rather than 'resigned' it, since he was never sworn in as the MLA after the election.  I've never heard the term before.

Even so, I'd figure that Calgary-Prentice is all but a given, given the nature of his passing (or the fact that he passed at all, given how many jurisdictions frown upon naming things after living figures) and how he generally inspired posthumous good will all around (notwithstanding his '15 election performance).  And even if he was ill-fated as Premier, his Parliament Hill performance more than compensates (whatever one thinks of Harper).

Now, what about an Edmonton-Stelmach?
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« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2017, 12:49:20 pm »

Might have to add Nova Scotia, as the court ruled the abolition of the 3 protected Acadian ridings by the previous government was unconstitutionnal.
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Krago
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« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2017, 01:14:40 pm »

Might have to add Nova Scotia, as the court ruled the abolition of the 3 protected Acadian ridings by the previous government was unconstitutionnal.

Here's the decision: http://www.courts.ns.ca/Decisions_Of_Courts/documents/2017nsca10.pdf
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Fmr. Assemblyman Njall
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« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2017, 04:28:27 pm »

P.S. What do you think of a Lloydminster-Cold Lake seat, as well as Lac La Biche-Bonnyville-St. Paul-Two Hills?

That could be interesting. I wouldn't mind it personally, but I also have very little familiarity with that area and the connections between different parts of that area, so there could be objections that I wouldn't be able to anticipate.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2017, 06:15:38 pm »

Might have to add Nova Scotia, as the court ruled the abolition of the 3 protected Acadian ridings by the previous government was unconstitutionnal.

But getting rid of the African Nova Scotian riding was OK?
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« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2017, 07:59:43 pm »

Might have to add Nova Scotia, as the court ruled the abolition of the 3 protected Acadian ridings by the previous government was unconstitutionnal.

But getting rid of the African Nova Scotian riding was OK?

It was an Acadian group that sued, and the court doesn't appear to have looked at Preston in depth.

I should note that Preston was always the most egregious case here. All four ridings were ~60% of a normal riding. The francophone ridings had francophone majorities, while Preston was only ~25-35% black and mostly elected white MLA's from Cherry Brook, a white community that made up most of the riding.
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Krago
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« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2017, 12:09:26 am »

Here are maps from the proposals I made when the Ontario legislature was debating Bill 115 (Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015) in November 2015.  I got a few pats on the head from MPPs, who proceeded to ignore all my recommended changes.







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EarlAW
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« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2017, 06:22:32 pm »

I am of course partial to my 170 seat Ontario map I posted a while ago:

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« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2017, 05:24:41 pm »

If they do make two "far" North ridings, they would likely only have about 10-15 thousand people in each one, or less.

What gets really interesting is whether or not Kenora would maintain another independent riding of less than 20,000.  I could see Timmins (along with Kap and Hearst, and very small towns in between) forming a riding since it would still be around 70k, but Kenora by itself with the far North cut out wouldn't be able to sustain a single riding. 

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lilTommy
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« Reply #17 on: January 27, 2017, 07:14:48 am »

If they do make two "far" North ridings, they would likely only have about 10-15 thousand people in each one, or less.

What gets really interesting is whether or not Kenora would maintain another independent riding of less than 20,000.  I could see Timmins (along with Kap and Hearst, and very small towns in between) forming a riding since it would still be around 70k, but Kenora by itself with the far North cut out wouldn't be able to sustain a single riding. 



The Boundary commission could probably start with the pre-95 electorates which I believe there were 15 seats for Northern Ontario (Including Nipissing but not Parry Sound) It would be easier to get 10 or 11 our of that using updated stats.
http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/
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EarlAW
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« Reply #18 on: January 27, 2017, 11:23:15 am »

Let's remember that there are more people in Kenora than the census reported because there were a lot of forest fires during the census season preventing counting being done. Also, some reserves don't like to do the census.

But anyways, I think if you lob off all the northern reserves from Kenora-Rainy River, you are still left with more than half the population of the riding, no?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2017, 12:10:07 pm »

Let's remember that there are more people in Kenora than the census reported because there were a lot of forest fires during the census season preventing counting being done. Also, some reserves don't like to do the census.

But anyways, I think if you lob off all the northern reserves from Kenora-Rainy River, you are still left with more than half the population of the riding, no?

I believe so... depends where that line is drawn, how far north of Dryden & Kenora would be added to something new. Like a James Bay Riding (Northern Kenora, northern parts of Cochrane and perhaps far north parts of Thunder Bay district, around/north of Lake Nipigon)

In the south you'd have left:
Rainy River District - 20K
Kenora(city) - 15K
Dryden - 7K
Soiux Lookout - 5K
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EarlAW
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« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2017, 09:50:47 pm »

You can't really put two ridings up there, because the only good way to divide the region is how they do it now (which is based on air links), and I think a James Bay based riding would be quite a bit smaller than the other Patricia based riding. However if you put in one big riding in the far north, you will have a problem with there being no east-west air connections.
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« Reply #21 on: January 28, 2017, 01:08:09 pm »

I think that's why they are going with 2, because it would be almost impossible to serve the entire area (heading east-west) without flying back to Timmins or Thunder Bay first, before heading back to the other area.

It really does put things into perspective though.  People in Toronto complain because they get put into a riding with a community a few blocks away because they are "different communities" with "different interest", yet people in the far North share a riding with an city only accessible by plane, of of different culture, language, and historical significance.

It really isn't fair to either the Indigenous people, nor to the people of the more populous areas of the current ridings, in the case of T-JB, Timmins.  When Governments look at how much each 'riding' gets in terms of funding for a variety of infrastructure and other needs, most of that money doesn't get spent in "Timmins" proper because they have to share what their riding gets with this vast huge area.  It's also not fair for Indigeous communities vote to be diluted by the mostly white, English and Franco cities.

If Timmins - Kap - Hearst did become a riding, would it become the most Francophone riding in Ontario? 
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Krago
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« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2017, 02:34:46 am »

Here's my attempt to make Nova Scotia's electoral map pass constitutional muster.

https://goo.gl/Eg0c6g

- the four protected ridings (Argyle, Clare, Preston, Richmond) would return to their previous boundaries

- two seats would be added to the Nova Scotia legislature:

    - the two ridings in SW NS (Clare-Digby, Annapolis) would be split into three (Clare, Digby-Annapolis West, Annapolis East)

    - the three ridings in SE NS (Argyle-Barrington, Queens-Shelburne, Lunenburg West) would be split into four (Argyle, Shelburne-Barrington, Queens-Lunenburg West, Lunenburg Centre) - to match the new names, Lunenburg riding would be renamed Lunenburg East

- there would be several changes to other districts, to make sure all ridings are within plus or minus 25% of the new provincial quotient (13,573, using the electors from the 2013 provincial election)
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2017, 06:58:37 am »

How did you calculate the electors in each riding?
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Krago
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« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2017, 01:01:45 pm »

How did you calculate the electors in each riding?

Here are the poll-by-poll results from the 2013 Nova Scotia provincial election:

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/PollByPollResults-39Gen_Election.zip


And here is the polling division digital boundary file:

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/NSPollingDivision_20130801.zip
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