Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

[lilTommy]

https://bcebc.ca/

Preliminary report of the BC Commission, who proposes adding 6 seats (Burnaby, Kelowna, Langley, Surrey, Vancouver, South Vancouver Island).

Using Ridingbuilder, the results would be:

NDP 61 (+4)
Lib 30 (+2)
Grn 2

New NDP seats are Burnaby-New Westminster, Langley-Willoughby, Surrey Central, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Vancouver-South Granville
The new Liberal seat is Kelowna Centre

NPD gain over Green in Cowichan Valley, Green gain over Liberal in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Liberal gains over NDP in Vancouver-Yaletown (former Vancouver-False Creek) and Langley-Aldergrove (former Langley East).

The riding of New Westminster-Mallardville is very odd, What's that justification? it looks gerrymandered but why? Wouldn't it make more sense to have the boundary be either:
a) for Coquitlam, everything south of Hwy1 be in the riding (something like that) or
b) for Coquitlam, everything west of Blue Mountain St (something like that)

I like that Vancouver is finally getting a 12th riding, and still every seat is over quota. in the new Vancouver-Yaletown, even gaining polls from the former Van-Mount Pleasant/now Van-Strathcona, it does not help the NDP when the BCL vote is so strong in Yaletown itself. The split makes Van-South Granville safer for the NDP, but not sure a name change was warranted? Van-Fairview still works here no? Van-Langara looks more competitive for the NDP now too, pulling in NDP polls from Van-Kensington and a mix/ever split NDP/BCL from Van-Fraserview.

They look to be moving away from neighbourhood based names to direction based names: In Burnaby you have East replacing Lougheed, Centre replacing Deer Lake and South replacing Edmonds. I think that works here. But in Surrey you have a City Centre riding and then a Central riding, I find that a bit confusing. They could have easily named Surrey City Centre, Surrey Green Timbers.

Big changes to Kamloops as well; the urban-rural Kamloops South is now an all urban Kamloops Centre, no real help for the NDP though since their vote is concentrated north of the Shuswap. Kamloops North Thompson shrinks down considerably to the new Kamloops North Shuswap.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, I don't think at the end of the day they're going to have a riding called Surrey City Centre and Surrey Central. Way too confusing.

[MaxQue]

https://bcebc.ca/

Preliminary report of the BC Commission, who proposes adding 6 seats (Burnaby, Kelowna, Langley, Surrey, Vancouver, South Vancouver Island).

Using Ridingbuilder, the results would be:

NDP 61 (+4)
Lib 30 (+2)
Grn 2

New NDP seats are Burnaby-New Westminster, Langley-Willoughby, Surrey Central, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Vancouver-South Granville
The new Liberal seat is Kelowna Centre

NPD gain over Green in Cowichan Valley, Green gain over Liberal in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Liberal gains over NDP in Vancouver-Yaletown (former Vancouver-False Creek) and Langley-Aldergrove (former Langley East).

The riding of New Westminster-Mallardville is very odd, What's that justification? it looks gerrymandered but why? Wouldn't it make more sense to have the boundary be either:
a) for Coquitlam, everything south of Hwy1 be in the riding (something like that) or
b) for Coquitlam, everything west of Blue Mountain St (something like that)

Maillardville claims to be the only Francophone community in BC (even if barely any of them still speak French), cutting it in two will cause problems and probably a "New Brunswick federal ridings 2004" style lawsuit.

[lilTommy]

https://bcebc.ca/

Preliminary report of the BC Commission, who proposes adding 6 seats (Burnaby, Kelowna, Langley, Surrey, Vancouver, South Vancouver Island).

Using Ridingbuilder, the results would be:

NDP 61 (+4)
Lib 30 (+2)
Grn 2

New NDP seats are Burnaby-New Westminster, Langley-Willoughby, Surrey Central, Juan de Fuca-Malahat and Vancouver-South Granville
The new Liberal seat is Kelowna Centre

NPD gain over Green in Cowichan Valley, Green gain over Liberal in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Liberal gains over NDP in Vancouver-Yaletown (former Vancouver-False Creek) and Langley-Aldergrove (former Langley East).

The riding of New Westminster-Mallardville is very odd, What's that justification? it looks gerrymandered but why? Wouldn't it make more sense to have the boundary be either:
a) for Coquitlam, everything south of Hwy1 be in the riding (something like that) or
b) for Coquitlam, everything west of Blue Mountain St (something like that)

Maillardville claims to be the only Francophone community in BC (even if barely any of them still speak French), cutting it in two will cause problems and probably a "New Brunswick federal ridings 2004" style lawsuit.

Ah, so there is a community of interest, even if it is small. But I think the commission for some reason made this more difficult then it needed to be. I was able to keep Mallardville in Coquitlam, and still keep the quota for the two seats about the same.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/GALLERY/7261_07_10_22_11_27_34.jpeg[/img]]

someone from BC can verify if that's accurate, but based on maps it looks to be.

[Poirot]

I don't know exactly when the next Quebec provincial redistribution will be but I added some numbers following the provincial elections. The website of the director of elections claims there were 6 302 789 electors.

I added the number of electors from the riding results of every riding on the island of Montreal (27 ridings). I got 1 292 848 voters.

This represents 20.51% of all voters live on the island of Montreal. With 125 ridings in total, 20.51%  equals 25.63 ridings so Montreal is overrepresented. It will probaly lose 1 riding. It could lose two with projections showing Montreal growing slower than the provincial average and if they draw a map thinking more in the future but removing ridings is tricky, two might be too much.

The lowest population among the Montreal ridings is Viau (39,883). Pointe-aux-Trembles is at 40,527. In the east Anjou-Louis-Riel is 41,956 and Lafontaine 42,199.

The group of QS seats could be a target to remove a riding. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (40,699), Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques (40,988), Mercier (43,387), Gouin (42,164), Laurier-Dorion (44,943). 

[MaxQue]

I don't know exactly when the next Quebec provincial redistribution will be but I added some numbers following the provincial elections. The website of the director of elections claims there were 6 302 789 electors.

I added the number of electors from the riding results of every riding on the island of Montreal (27 ridings). I got 1 292 848 voters.

This represents 20.51% of all voters live on the island of Montreal. With 125 ridings in total, 20.51%  equals 25.63 ridings so Montreal is overrepresented. It will probaly lose 1 riding. It could lose two with projections showing Montreal growing slower than the provincial average and if they draw a map thinking more in the future but removing ridings is tricky, two might be too much.

The lowest population among the Montreal ridings is Viau (39,883). Pointe-aux-Trembles is at 40,527. In the east Anjou-Louis-Riel is 41,956 and Lafontaine 42,199.

The group of QS seats could be a target to remove a riding. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve (40,699), Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques (40,988), Mercier (43,387), Gouin (42,164), Laurier-Dorion (44,943).  

Law says the preliminary report is due by October 3rd, 2023.

[Poirot]

Thanks for the info. The mandate of the director of elections has not been renewed yet even if he wanted to keep the job so maybe the government will name a new person first.