Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

[Njall]

The Final Report of the Alberta Commission is out.

[Boston Bread]

Biggest thing I noticed was that they split Medicine Hat into two rurban ridings because of concerns that an all rural riding would be too large.

[Hatman 🍁]

Queen's Park has approved the 2 Far North ridings

[toaster]

Looks like they went with Mushkegowuk-James Bay for the North-East riding.  Unfortunate since some Aboriginals are against the use of the name, and there is nothing to show that the riding is majority Francophone.  Would have went with Kapuskasing - Hearst - Baie-James / or, Corridor 11 - Baie James. Or something similar.

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like they went with Mushkegowuk-James Bay for the North-East riding.  Unfortunate since some Aboriginals are against the use of the name, and there is nothing to show that the riding is majority Francophone.  Would have went with Kapuskasing - Hearst - Baie-James / or, Corridor 11 - Baie James. Or something similar.

Well, the riding will probably be called Mushkegowuk-Baie James in French (though the French version of the news release doesn't translate James Bay)

[mileslunn]

Queen's Park has approved the 2 Far North ridings

Probably means two extra seats for the NDP as I expect the NDP to win it.  While a long shot it will probably make the Liberals winning another majority (not that they have much chance anyways) that much harder.  It does for the PCs mean they need one extra seat, otherwise 63 seats instead of 62 for a majority but the chances of them getting 62 seats exactly seems unlikely although if it does expect a fight over which party will put up a speaker then as whomever does disadvantages their side.

[DL]

I wonder if Gilles Bisson would run in Timmins or in the new Mishke whatever-James Bay?

[lilTommy]

I wonder if Gilles Bisson would run in Timmins or in the new Mishke whatever-James Bay?

It's Mushkegowuk-James Bay

My thinking is he will run in Timmins; he lives there and represented the old Cochrane South riding when first elected in 1990 (Basically was the Timmins, Iroquois Falls area). Timmins will be the more competitive riding and, if the NDP is playing to win both, Bisson's popularity and incumbency will help in a competitive race.
Plus it leaves Mushkegowuk-James Bay open for the NDP to try and recruit an indigenous candidate (top of their list), perhaps one who is also Franco-Ontarian (basically required for the new riding) and a woman (would be nice to see).     

[toaster]

Bisson has kept quiet, though.  He does have his own plane I believe and flies all across the riding on his own.  I believe former Timmins mayor Jamie Lim is running for the Ontario PCs in Timmins (not confirmed yet), and I think the Liberals will be less of a factor in the North this time.  There are many in Timmins who are also Anybody but NDP voters, just because of how long they've been in power in the area, so if they see that the PCs are the best chance to beat the NDP, traditionally Liberal voters would change to oust the NDP.  The Mushkegowuk-James Bay riding is probably a guaranteed NDP seat, and would be one of, if not the safest NDP riding in the province.  If there is no Aboriginal/Franco-ontarien candidate, I expect a Franco-ontarien to win the riding.  But I am excited to see how Timmins turns out, it will be one of the most interesting ridings to watch since it has both a small geographic location AND population, something that has never really been the case in Ontario, which might make the local candidate more important than the party.  Surely at the next redistribution, Timmins won't remain it's own riding (likely combined with parts/most of Temikaming-Cochrane).

[Hatman 🍁]

You make the wild assumption that there will actually even be a "redistribution". The Ontario government doesn't really care about malapportionment, and will likely stick with the current formula in perpetuity.

[Njall]

I noticed yesterday that someone had tweeted out a link to a transposition of the Alberta 2015 results onto the new boundaries. I can't vouch for them having 100% accuracy, but I didn't see any results on there that look out of place.

Whoever did this looked at the results both with separate WR and PC parties, as well as looking at their combined vote share as a theoretical UCP. With the PCs and WRP separate, the results are pretty much the same as the actual 2015 election: 53 NDP (-1), 20 WRP (-1), 13 PC (+3), 1 AP, 0 ALP (-1). When the PCs and WRP are combined the results are: 61 UCP, 25 NDP, 1 AP. In the latter scenario, the NDP is left with all 20 Edmonton seats, plus both Lethbridge seats, the urban St. Albert and Sherwood Park seats, and Calgary-Buffalo. Off the top of my head, the 61-25-1 result is one seat better for the NDP at the UCP's expense, compared to combining PC and WRP vote shares on the current map, and that one-seat gain is solely due to the extra seat in Edmonton.

[Hatman 🍁]

That was most likely done by Kyle Hutton; he deserves the credit.

I've compared my data to his in the past and have noticed we do things a bit differently, but is generally reliable.

[Krago]

Why I Expect OMB Decision on Hamilton’s Ward Boundaries Will be a Landmark Province-Wide Precedent

[Hatman 🍁]

This is good news. If everyone complains their voices are being diluted, we will finally get proper representation by population!

(It also means it will be less likely council sizes will be reduced, as it would be hard to do that while attempting to balance everyone's community of interest )

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news! The OMB has approved Toronto's new 47 ward plan The plan adds three more wards on council, 2 of which are downtown.

Finally, the 1996 era ward boundaries can be thrown in the garbage.

Hopefully the new wards will get some names. I am available to offer suggestions of course.

[Krago]

The OMB threw out the map drawn by Hamilton city councillors in favour of one recommended by their ward boundary review consultants last January.  Council is meeting on Monday to decide if they want to appeal the decision to Divisional Court.

https://www.omb.gov.on.ca/ecs/CaseDetail.aspx?n=MM170025

https://www.thespec.com/news-story/7994290-omb-rejects-hamilton-council-s-preferred-ward-boundary-plan/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/ward-boundary-review-1.4445476

https://globalnews.ca/news/3914515/councillor-voices-concern-as-omb-orders-new-ward-boundaries-in-hamilton/

https://www.thepublicrecord.ca/2017/12/ontario-municipal-board-tosses-councils-attempt-to-gerrymander-wards-axes-ward-14-creates-new-ward-on-mountain/

[trebor204]

New proposed boundaries for Manitoba

Winnipeg gains one seat, rural Manitoba loses one seat.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4217503/manitoba-boundaries-commission-proposes-changes-to-all-57-ridings-adding-one-to-winnipeg/


http://www.boundariescommission.mb.ca/

[Hatman 🍁]

I was checking the new boundaries out earlier today, and at first glance, they seem to favour the PCs.

[Njall]

I was checking the new boundaries out earlier today, and at first glance, they seem to favour the PCs.

Significantly or no?

[Hatman 🍁]

I was checking the new boundaries out earlier today, and at first glance, they seem to favour the PCs.

Significantly or no?

Not significantly. They would gain the extra seat, and possibly one or two more.

[Krago]

The PEI Electoral Boundaries Commission was resurrected to develop an 18-district 'Mixed-Member Proportional' map.

Here is the background:

https://www.electoralboundaries.pe.ca/2018-mmp-map

And here is their special report:

https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/37f9d9_9a647b57c74b412f94b019f31d75dadc.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

They could go back to the old malapportioned councillor/assembly districts since district size doesn't matter as much with MMP. There were 16, so just give 2 more to Charlottetown and call it a day.

[lilTommy]

I was checking the new boundaries out earlier today, and at first glance, they seem to favour the PCs.

Significantly or no?

Not significantly. They would gain the extra seat, and possibly one or two more.

PCs would win the new Waverly and Lagimodiere ridings, in the south end for sure, I think the new Southdale is more competitive for the NDP now, but still lean PC. St. James weird shape looks to benefit the NDP; Tyndall Park looks like a pretty good Liberal target; Garden City I think can go either way, NDP or PC, while Kildonan is more Safe PC.

Keewatinook looks to favour the NDP

[Krago]

I just noticed that there is a new PEI district called 'Stanhope-Marshfield'.

Can we call it 'Stan-Marsh' for short?

[Krago]

I got ahold of some 2021 population projections, so I decided to do what I do best.

Using the provincial figures, Alberta would add five seats in the House of Commons and Ontario would gain one.  All other provinces would remain the same, including BC.

Here’s what an Ontario map of 122 Federal ridings (9 North, 113 South) could look like.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz