Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

[Krago]

There are two (and possibly three) Canadian provinces that will redraw their electoral boundaries in 2017.  They are:

- Alberta - The Alberta Electoral Boundaries Commission (http://abebc.ca/) was appointed in late 2016 and has already started public hearings.  An interim report should be released by the end of May with the final report due by the end of October.  There is a fixed total of 87 electoral divisions.

- Ontario - The Ontario legislature voted last year to establish a Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/far-north-commission-1.3908208 to create one or two new provincial districts within the existing ridings of Kenora-Rainy River and Timmins-James Bay.  Once the members are appointed, they have three months to hold public hearings and issue a final report.

- PEI - Islanders voted in a plebiscite last year to replace their First-Past-the-Post electoral system with a Mixed Member Proportional model.  The website outlining the options suggested that two-thirds of members would represent constituencies and one-third would be elected from a province-wide list.  Whether this means adding 14 members to the PEI legislature, or reducing the number of districts from 27 to 18 has not been made clear.  Considering the clusterhug that occurred the last time the Island tried to redistribute their ridings, anything could happen.

[Krago]

Here's my attempt to equalize the populations of all 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions: https://goo.gl/DcCPF0.

The population statistics will be added once the 2016 Census figures are released on February 8.

[Krago]

Here's my attempt to equalize the populations of all 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions: https://goo.gl/DcCPF0.

The population statistics will be added once the 2016 Census figures are released on February 8.

Given the stated goal of equalized populations across all 87 districts, that's a pretty good map in my opinion. With that said, I have a few comments that the commission would likely be faced with if this map was presented in reality, even though following most of these comments would likely detract from equalizing population across districts:

The name Calgary-Currie wouldn't work for that electoral district anymore, as Currie Barracks would have moved into Calgary-Elbow. I would see Calgary-Killarney as a likely alternate name for the old Calgary-Currie

What about Calgary-Redford or Calgary-Prentice (too soon?)  Four of the Famous Five don't have electoral divisions named after them, but I don't know if any had a connection to Calgary.

By the way, I read somewhere that Jim Prentice 'disclaimed' his seat rather than 'resigned' it, since he was never sworn in as the MLA after the election.  I've never heard the term before.

[Krago]

P.S. What do you think of a Lloydminster-Cold Lake seat, as well as Lac La Biche-Bonnyville-St. Paul-Two Hills?

[Krago]

Might have to add Nova Scotia, as the court ruled the abolition of the 3 protected Acadian ridings by the previous government was unconstitutionnal.

Here's the decision: http://www.courts.ns.ca/Decisions_Of_Courts/documents/2017nsca10.pdf

[Krago]

Here are maps from the proposals I made when the Ontario legislature was debating Bill 115 (Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015) in November 2015.  I got a few pats on the head from MPPs, who proceeded to ignore all my recommended changes.

[Krago]

Here's my attempt to make Nova Scotia's electoral map pass constitutional muster.

https://goo.gl/Eg0c6g

- the four protected ridings (Argyle, Clare, Preston, Richmond) would return to their previous boundaries

- two seats would be added to the Nova Scotia legislature:

    - the two ridings in SW NS (Clare-Digby, Annapolis) would be split into three (Clare, Digby-Annapolis West, Annapolis East)

    - the three ridings in SE NS (Argyle-Barrington, Queens-Shelburne, Lunenburg West) would be split into four (Argyle, Shelburne-Barrington, Queens-Lunenburg West, Lunenburg Centre) - to match the new names, Lunenburg riding would be renamed Lunenburg East

- there would be several changes to other districts, to make sure all ridings are within plus or minus 25% of the new provincial quotient (13,573, using the electors from the 2013 provincial election)

[Krago]

How did you calculate the electors in each riding?

Here are the poll-by-poll results from the 2013 Nova Scotia provincial election:

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/PollByPollResults-39Gen_Election.zip


And here is the polling division digital boundary file:

https://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/NSPollingDivision_20130801.zip

[Krago]

- there would be several changes to other districts, to make sure all ridings are within plus or minus 25% of the new provincial quotient (13,573, using the electors from the 2013 provincial election)

The 'other changes' would include:

- moving Cambridge Mountain Road to Kings West to drop Kings South below the +25% threshold

- moving Mount Uniacke to Sackville-Beaver Bank to drop Hants East below the +25% threshold

- moving the area west of Bicentennial Drive to Hammonds Plains-Lucasville to drop Bedford below the +25% threshold

- re-aligning districts in the Dartmouth/Cole Harbour area (Dartmouth East, Dartmouth South, Cole Harbour-Eastern Passage, Cole Harbour-Portland Valley, Eastern Shore) to include the areas relinquished by Preston-Dartmouth, while remaining below the upper population limit

- moving Port Hawkesbury to Inverness and the Big Pond area to Sydney River-Mira-Louisbourg

- transferring Whitney Pier to Cape Breton Centre and Dominion to Glace Bay, to avoid exceeding the population limit

[Krago]

Cool stuff. Really the only quibble I'd have is your new map has a riding names Guysborough-_____-____- Tracadie, but Tracadie isn't in the riding.

Those are the current name and boundaries of the provincial riding. I didn't change a thing.

http://electionsnovascotia.ca/sites/default/files/20_guysborough-eastern_shore-tracadie.pdf

[Krago]

The Prince Edward Island Electoral Boundaries Commission (http://www.electoralboundaries.pe.ca/) has kicked off it's public hearings.

http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/news/local/2017/2/7/illegal-districts-on-p-e-i---boundaries-map-under-review.html

They are tasked with creating a new map of 27 ridings.  So that means that:

(a) the province is going to add 13 list MLAs to reflect the victory of the MMP side in the recent Electoral Reform plebiscite (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Edward_Island_electoral_reform_referendum,_2016); or

(b) Do a Justin and toss PR out the window.

[Krago]

The first census results came out today. Anyone notice anything interesting vis a vis redistribution

The most populous riding in Ontario is Niagara Falls (136,292).  The least populous riding in Southern Ontario is Niagara West (90,838).

You could fix things by adding Niagara-on-the-Lake (17,511) to St. Catharines riding, and moving that part of St. Catharines riding west of Martindale Pond and Twelve Mile Creek (12,222) to Niagara West.

Niagara Falls: 136,292 - 17,511 = 118,781
St. Catharines: 111,691 + 17,511 - 12,222 = 116,980
Niagara West: 90,838 + 12,222 = 103,060

[Krago]

What about adding Fort Erie to Niagara Centre, and moving Thorold and the small part of St. Catharines north of it to Niagara West?  The populations wouldn't be as even as your map (NF would be ~105K;  Niagara West would be ~125K), but it avoids an awkward split of St. Catharines.

Here's another option that provides great population balance, and communities of interest, but the NDP would hate Hate HATE it.

[Krago]

And here is a Hatman-like proposal.  Thorold South would move to Niagara Falls and Fonthill would join Niagara South.

[Krago]

It's amazing what you can accomplish at work when you don't feel like working!

[Krago]

Any riding that connects Niagara-on-the-Lake to the rest of the island by a thin strip of land fails compactness. (though I'm aware this was done back in the 1960s with the provincial riding monstrosity of "Lincoln")

If only there was a map that showed some sort of community of interest among Grimsby, Lincoln and Niagara-on-the-Lake, connected by a transportation route along the southern edge of St. Catharines...

[Krago]

I'm working on the revisions to my Alberta proposal using the new Census populations.  What do you think of these?

- Banff-Kananaskis
- Cochrane-Crossfield
- Airdrie West
- Chestermere-Airdrie East

Calgary is turning out to be a bit of a pain with the new numbers.

[Krago]

Here's my attempt to equalize the populations of all 87 Alberta provincial electoral divisions: https://goo.gl/DcCPF0.

The population statistics will be added once the 2016 Census figures are released on February 8.

I have revised my proposed Alberta map using the new 2016 Census population counts.  Please look it over and let me know what you think.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

[Krago]

(Just looking at Calgary) Pretty good map, except for that Calgary-Klein abomination. Was that unavoidable?

You could combine Calgary-Klein with Calgary-Mountain View, and split it into east and west ridings along Centre St N.  Would that be an improvement?

[Krago]

In Edmonton, I would want to re-draw Edmonton-Southwest and Edmonton-Riverview. I don't like how the river bifurcates both ridings (Edmonton SW is particularly awful with all that uninhabited area in the middle of the riding). Also, I don't like how Edmonton-Getty crosses the highway.

Do you like this better?  The blue lines represent my revised proposal (the one I created last night) while the colours show the new non-river-crossing boundaries.

I renamed the four SW Edmonton ridings after Four of the Famous Five.  Emily Murphy can go suck a lemon.

[Krago]

I have added Hatman's suggestions to my Alberta Google map.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

[Krago]

In reading the transcripts from the public hearings so far, it's been suggested that that designation be pre-emptively applied to the ridings of West Yellowhead and Drumheller-Stettler. Neither riding is below the -25% point yet, but they're getting close to the mark, and it's felt amongst local residents and politicians that the ridings can't feasibly grow much more.

That's the sort of thing that local residents and politicians say at every boundaries hearing in every jurisdiction everywhere at all times, past present and future.  That being said, I think my solution to growing those two electoral divisions isn't too bad.

Any other comments about my maps?  I like Hatman's suggestion to use the North Saskatchewan River across the entire city of Edmonton, even though it would require splitting four existing ridings in half and rearranging them.  Which option do you prefer for Calgary-Klein/Mountain View?

Rep-by-pop was popular among Alberta's NDs when it involved taking away die-hard Tory strongholds in southern Alberta to add new seats to Edmonton.  Now that it results in replacing NDP ridings in Northern Alberta with suburban Calgary seats, they have mixed feelings.

[Krago]

I have added three more alternative ridings to my map.

https://goo.gl/DcCPF0

Two seats (Calgary-Mackay and Calgary-Northern Hills) have equal populations, no communities are divided, and they aren't any more bizarre-looking than the existing Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill.

The numbers don't let me use Deerfoot Trail as a boundary all the way from the Bow River north to the city limits, but I did manage to rescue the Southview community by adding it to Calgary-Forest Lawn.  Calgary-Mountain View used to extend east to Barlow Trail, so this is like the good 'ol days.  MAKE MOUNTAIN VIEW GREAT AGAIN!

I've returned the name Calgary-Foothills to the riding that covers most of the current electoral division.  The new seat of Calgary-De Winton has been re-christened Calgary-Kwong, so that Normie can hang out with his old football buddy Peter Lougheed.


P.S. Which configuration do you prefer for the three seats in the Fort Saskatchewan-Lac La Biche-Lloydminster triangle?  Regular or extra-crispy?

[Krago]

Excellent map (or should I say, Freedom map?)

What about swapping Glamorgan for Bankview and Richmond?  It would follow the existing provincial boundaries more closely.

[Krago]

I know you have all been waiting patiently for my PEI proposal.

Well, here it is:  https://goo.gl/TXSu6Z

All proposed electoral districts are within 10% of the provincial average (5,293), with the exception of Tignish-Miminegash.