Canadian Redistribution - Federal, Provincial, Municipal

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Also, Ontario will be matching the Federal ridings that were redistributed in 2015 come 2018 election, minus the North as per Krago. So Queens Park will have either 122 or 123 (federally its 121, but if they maintain the current North then that is 1 more and if they add an additional riding that means 2 more then federally)
http://www.elections.on.ca/content/dam/NGW/sitecontent/2017/preo/Ontario%20Electoral%20Districts%202015.pdf

They may add two additional ridings (on top of the one extra Northern Ontario has in Ontario already), so it would be 123 or 124, assuming it gets approved.

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If they do make two "far" North ridings, they would likely only have about 10-15 thousand people in each one, or less.

What gets really interesting is whether or not Kenora would maintain another independent riding of less than 20,000.  I could see Timmins (along with Kap and Hearst, and very small towns in between) forming a riding since it would still be around 70k, but Kenora by itself with the far North cut out wouldn't be able to sustain a single riding. 

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I think that's why they are going with 2, because it would be almost impossible to serve the entire area (heading east-west) without flying back to Timmins or Thunder Bay first, before heading back to the other area.

It really does put things into perspective though.  People in Toronto complain because they get put into a riding with a community a few blocks away because they are "different communities" with "different interest", yet people in the far North share a riding with an city only accessible by plane, of of different culture, language, and historical significance.

It really isn't fair to either the Indigenous people, nor to the people of the more populous areas of the current ridings, in the case of T-JB, Timmins.  When Governments look at how much each 'riding' gets in terms of funding for a variety of infrastructure and other needs, most of that money doesn't get spent in "Timmins" proper because they have to share what their riding gets with this vast huge area.  It's also not fair for Indigeous communities vote to be diluted by the mostly white, English and Franco cities.

If Timmins - Kap - Hearst did become a riding, would it become the most Francophone riding in Ontario? 

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Interesting maps.  It really depends on whether they want to create 1 or 2 new ridings.  I really can't see allowing a riding of just 9 thousand people (in Option 4). It also doesn't make sense to have these French communities (Kap, Hearst) in the riding if the entire point is about getting representation that aligns with your community.

I don't think they could justify Timmins having its own riding, although I'm sure this would be temporary until the next re-draw, which is still a far ways away.  Option #1 seems to be the most reasonable, if they are going for 1 extra riding. 

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Timmins gets to be its own riding.  Will return to be a true Lib/NDP tossup, much like Sudbury is.  This will last until the next redistribution, where the rest of the North will likely lose an MPP. 
What this does is create the most Francophone riding in the province, and someone French from Kap/Hearst will be able to run.  Here is a picture from Gilles Bisson with the population of Fr / Aborg. in each "new" riding.

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The Liberal candidate the last time was from Hearst, that is why the Liberal numbers were inflated there last time.  That explains not only why they did so well in Hearst, but also why the Liberals did so poorly in Timmins, in addition to the ONTC issue.  You can find articles where prominent Liberals form Timmins were supporting the PCs in an "Anything but NDP" kind of coalition here. So I don't think the results of that election are telling of the actual Liberal/PC support.  Traditionally, Timmins has been a NDP/LIB tossup.
If you look at the last federal election, the Liberals almost won Timmins proper (with a terrible candidate who has since embarrassed himself)

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Gilles Bisson wants the Commission to return all the communities along Highway 11 to the Timmins riding, and make Mushkegowuk an aboriginal-majority seat.

http://www.timminspress.com/2017/07/13/bisson-urges-boundaries-commission-to-go-back-to-the-drawing-board

Hearst and Kap are much more pro-NDP .  The only times this hasn't been the case is when the local candidate was from that municipality (Kap went PC when Kap Mayor Al Spacek was the candidate, Hearst went Liberal when Sylvie Fontain from Hearst ran for the Liberals).  Barring those 2 anomalies, those areas have always been good to Bisson.  Having them in Timmins also helps his chances.

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When the Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario released their final report, only one seat (Kenora) was beyond the 25% range.  If this recommendation becomes law, then ten out of the 124 ridings (using 2011 Census figures) will be below the 25% threshold, and one will be above (Brantford-Brant).

Using 2016 Census figures (excluding incompletely enumerated Indian reserves), Northern Ontario would be entitled to 7 3/4 ridings out of 124.  This plan would give it 13.  It would be an interesting court challenge.

It's not Northern Ontario's "fault" so to speak, that the southern part of the province continues to grow at exponential rates.  Why would they lose representation?  It would only cause further division, and serve to foster more separation talks.  

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The Final Report will be released tomorrow for Ontario's new ridings.

Pursuant to ss. 4(9) and 4(10) of the Representation Act, 2015, the FNEBC will conduct a second round of public information meetings after the release of this Preliminary Report before releasing a final report (“Final Report”) containing its recommendations on or before August 1, 2017.

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The City of Timmins has always been the "weak spot" for the NDP in the Timmins-James Bay riding (they still win provincially, but not by as much).  Federally, Timmins proper would have went Liberal last time around.  So for Bisson, it could be a challenge, particularly since there are mumblings that former Timmins Mayor Jamie Lim may be running for the PCs (I don't believe the Liberals will be a factor in Northern Ontario come June).  If Bisson wants an "easy win", it would be to run in the new Mushkegowuk (sp?) riding.

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Looks like they went with Mushkegowuk-James Bay for the North-East riding.  Unfortunate since some Aboriginals are against the use of the name, and there is nothing to show that the riding is majority Francophone.  Would have went with Kapuskasing - Hearst - Baie-James / or, Corridor 11 - Baie James. Or something similar.

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Bisson has kept quiet, though.  He does have his own plane I believe and flies all across the riding on his own.  I believe former Timmins mayor Jamie Lim is running for the Ontario PCs in Timmins (not confirmed yet), and I think the Liberals will be less of a factor in the North this time.  There are many in Timmins who are also Anybody but NDP voters, just because of how long they've been in power in the area, so if they see that the PCs are the best chance to beat the NDP, traditionally Liberal voters would change to oust the NDP.  The Mushkegowuk-James Bay riding is probably a guaranteed NDP seat, and would be one of, if not the safest NDP riding in the province.  If there is no Aboriginal/Franco-ontarien candidate, I expect a Franco-ontarien to win the riding.  But I am excited to see how Timmins turns out, it will be one of the most interesting ridings to watch since it has both a small geographic location AND population, something that has never really been the case in Ontario, which might make the local candidate more important than the party.  Surely at the next redistribution, Timmins won't remain it's own riding (likely combined with parts/most of Temikaming-Cochrane).

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I got ahold of some 2021 population projections, so I decided to do what I do best.

Using the provincial figures, Alberta would add five seats in the House of Commons and Ontario would gain one.  All other provinces would remain the same, including BC.

Here’s what an Ontario map of 122 Federal ridings (9 North, 113 South) could look like.

https://goo.gl/6UMkjz

I don't think ridings of 130k+ are going to fly (when you have ridings of 110k in the same city) particularly in Toronto, when it means residents in those ridings will now be losing out on voter parity at 3 levels because the boundaries will all align. Also, crossing Steeles will be a problem.

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Cheticamp kind of reminds me of the new Mushkegowuk-James Bay. Sure, it's a 'rotten borough', but tiny minority ridings seem to be all the rage right now. And having 2 super safe NDP First Nations rotten boroughs in Ontario still didn't negate the PC structural advantage in the rest of the province.

Tiny is relative.  People in Mushkegowuk-James Bay still have representation that is about 1/9th that of an average PEI Provincial riding, IE. if Mushkegowuk-James Bay was in PEI, it would be split up into about 9 ridings.  First Nations people of Ontario, because of their position in a province with exponential growth, have far less access to representation than their counterparts in smaller provinces.