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Author Topic: Ecuador election, 19th February  (Read 7973 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #75 on: April 03, 2017, 01:28:20 am »

Yup, Lenin won. Shame.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #76 on: April 03, 2017, 01:29:11 am »

1917-2017: LENIN LIVES ON
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« Reply #77 on: April 03, 2017, 02:12:33 am »

1917-2017: LENIN LIVES ON

And now I have an excuse to use this gif

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« Reply #78 on: April 03, 2017, 02:21:47 am »

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Figueira
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« Reply #79 on: April 03, 2017, 02:30:47 am »

Should I be happy about this?
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« Reply #80 on: April 03, 2017, 03:37:28 am »

"I cordially invite Lasso to leave Ecuador within 30 days (with or without his tax haven millions) " -Julian Assange

https://twitter.com/JulianAssange/status/848710934470307841
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #81 on: April 03, 2017, 03:38:34 am »

Should I be happy about this?

Well, if Lenin is at least somewhat similar to our Lenin - unlikely...
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
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« Reply #82 on: April 03, 2017, 04:33:41 am »

Moreno's personal story is very inspiring (paralyzed after a shooting, subsquent advocacy for handicapped people). He was very close to win the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize.

I think it's wonderful to see someone like him beating the adversity. Certainly a very positive message as far as disability rights are concerned.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #83 on: April 03, 2017, 05:10:31 am »

Moreno's personal story is very inspiring (paralyzed after a shooting, subsquent advocacy for handicapped people). He was very close to win the 2012 Nobel Peace Prize.

I think it's wonderful to see someone like him beating the adversity. Certainly a very positive message as far as disability rights are concerned.

Roughly the same background as Norbert Hofer. The difference is that Lenin was shot, while Hofer's paraglyder collapsed. Both seems to be heavily involved in the work for handicapped people though.
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Babeuf
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« Reply #84 on: April 03, 2017, 12:49:51 pm »

Excellent result!
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Figueira
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« Reply #85 on: April 03, 2017, 02:38:06 pm »

Should I be happy about this?

Well, if Lenin is at least somewhat similar to our Lenin - unlikely...

Is he though, aside from name and political matrix quadrant?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #86 on: April 03, 2017, 03:29:01 pm »

Should I be happy about this?

Well, if Lenin is at least somewhat similar to our Lenin - unlikely...

Is he though, aside from name and political matrix quadrant?

Both are, undoubtely, leftist, but i think an Ecuadoran one is more reasonable and less devilishly cunning..
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Pyro
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« Reply #87 on: April 03, 2017, 07:31:39 pm »

Excellent result!
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #88 on: April 06, 2017, 03:46:11 pm »

Map of the runoff:



The patterns are broadly similar to that of the first round, with Lasso winning overwhelmingly the indigenous vote, notably the Shuar, the Saraguro, and the indigenous peoples of the Central Sierra (Panzaleo, Puruhá, Salasaca and, to a lesser extent, Cañari). Maybe the first time in Ecuadorian history, the winning candidate lost the two largest cities of the country, Guayaquil and Quito, which were both won by Lasso. The conservative candidate also topped the polls in the urban part of every single provincial capitals of the Sierra (Tulcán, Ibarra, Latacunga, Ambato, Riobamba, Guaranda, Azogues, Cuenca, and Loja). Like in first round, Moreno won every single province in the Costa, getting his best result in Manabí.
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Hash
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« Reply #89 on: April 06, 2017, 04:26:49 pm »

It seems as if, in the cities, the wealthiest and middle-class sections voted for Lasso and the poorer barrios voted for Lenín. Is that correct? Obviously Samborondón in Guayas voted quasi-unanimously for Lasso.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #90 on: April 06, 2017, 07:49:49 pm »

Thanks a lot for the map, SJJ! Smiley

How come the indigenous vote is so right-wing in Ecuador? I seem to remember that the opposite is true in most Latin American countries (at least in Peru, Bolivia, Brazil afaik).
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #91 on: April 07, 2017, 07:43:20 am »

It seems as if, in the cities, the wealthiest and middle-class sections voted for Lasso and the poorer barrios voted for Lenín. Is that correct? Obviously Samborondón in Guayas voted quasi-unanimously for Lasso.

Yes, it’s correct, at least for Quito (where Lasso performed the best in the northern, wealthiest, part of the city) and for Guayaquil (where Lasso topped the poll in the downtown area, losing the poorer suburbs of Febres Cordero, Ximena, and Pascuales to Moreno). Unfortunately, I can’t find data on poverty distribution in the other major cities of the country. La Puntilla, Samborondón, a wealthy, white-flight, suburb of Guayaquil, is indeed Lasso’s third best parish in the country (the two best parishes are both located in the Shuar-populated part of the Morona Santiago province); he won there 90.1% of the vote.

Thanks a lot for the map, SJJ! Smiley

How come the indigenous vote is so right-wing in Ecuador? I seem to remember that the opposite is true in most Latin American countries (at least in Peru, Bolivia, Brazil afaik).

There are several explanations for that.

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Secondly, while in office as president (2002-2005), Lucio Gutiérrez, a cholo (in short, a person of indigenous extraction who no longer self-identify as indigenous but as a mestizo), used the oil windfall to build clientele networks in the indigenous-populated areas, whose previous governments basically didn’t give a damn about; as such, Gutiérrez appeared as the first president of Ecuador to truly care about indigenous’ plight and remained widely popular in the central Sierra and in northern Oriente. This year, it seems that the Gutiérrez’s political machine switched its support to Lasso, the best-placed opposition candidate, permitting the conservative candidate to get strong results in Napo (where the local indigenous voted however for Gutiérrez’s PSP in the legislative election), Orellana, Bolívar, Chimborazo, and Tungurahua.

Finally, there are local factors: the existence of a significant evangelical indigenous community in Chimborazo (where the local evangelical Amauta Yuyay party endorsed Lasso); the apparent inefficiency of the government’s social programs to effectively decrease poverty in Chimborazo and Cotopaxi; the endorsement of Lasso by Marcelino Chumpi, the Shuar prefect of Morona Santiago.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #92 on: April 07, 2017, 12:45:38 pm »

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Ugh, that's incredibly disappointing. Thanks for the explanation though!
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warandwar
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« Reply #93 on: April 07, 2017, 05:16:47 pm »

Firstly, a quite large segment of the indigenous voters didn’t vote for the conservative candidate per se, but for the leading opponent to Correa. See for example the difference between the presidential and the national assemblymen’s elections in the Shuar- and Saraguro populated areas: in these places, indigenous voters voted for Lasso in the presidential poll but for Pachakutik, a fairly left-wing party, in the legislative election. I have already gave several reasons for why the indigenous voters dislikes Correa: the government’s support for mega-mining and oil drilling in indigenous-populated areas; Correa’s feud with the CONAIE, the main indigenous organization; crackdown on indigenous protests (remember that the province of Morona Santiago is under a state of emergency); modification of the water law in a sense that seems to favor big agro-business over small-scale farmers; Correa’s long-time refusal to comply with Pachakutik’s indigenist platform (transformation of Ecuador into a plurinational state; creation of an indigenous justice system; comprehensive agrarian reform; aggressive promotion of indigenous languages).

Ugh, that's incredibly disappointing. Thanks for the explanation though!

If you're interested in indigenous politics in Ecuador, I'd highly recommend "Crude Chronicles," by Suzana Sawyer.
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Sir John Johns
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« Reply #94 on: April 08, 2017, 04:27:19 am »





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« Reply #95 on: April 16, 2017, 05:18:09 pm »








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The Conflict
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« Reply #96 on: April 16, 2017, 09:12:34 pm »

Go Lasso! No more Assange!

Good to see you're supporting a right-wing candidate.

I'm supporting a center-right candidate over a de facto (per support of Assange) far right candidate.

I'll hope you content in screwing the poor, and the indigenous population.

LOL
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