Which of these are most likely to get independence?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Vote for the 3 you think are most likely to.

(Yes I know I included Quebec twice, only vote for one of them if you are going to)

[DanielX]

You have 'Quebec' twice.

[The Dowager Mod]

Montenegro and Aceh

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's what I say:

Palestine - only one of these I'd bet on becoming independent, when it will happen is still up in the air though. Probably already would've had Arafat not been such an ass.
Quebec - 10 years ago I would've voted for it. Not now.
Trandsneister - Not a chance. I'd be suprised if it even still has its de facto independence in 2 years.
South Ossetia - Same as above basically, although probably will survive de facto longer as Russia has more influence on Georgia.
Western Sahara - Tough to say, but I think it'd happen eventually if enough international pressure finally causes Morocco to crack.
Northern Cyprus - No. Will probably fall soon as well.
Basque Lands - I think this will probably happen at some point, but not in the next 20 years.
Kurdistan - Possibly in Iraq, but a full Kurdistan would require a WWII-esque war in the Middle East.
Corsica - highly unlikely
Brittany - at this point I think there's a better chance of the Confederacy returning.
Chechnya - also unlikely in the near future, maybe later if Russia finally can't take a guerilla war anymore.
Aceh - same as above really except for Indnoesia.
Montenegro - seems to be stable in the union now, but such loose confederations tend not to last. I'd be on it sometime in the later future.
Tibet - only if the Chinese regime falls, tough to say when/if that'll happen.
Tamil Lands - Sri Lanka will probably grant the territory some greater degree of autonomy at some point. Full independence, not likely, at least in the near future.

I vote for Palestine, Western Sahara and Montenegro.

[WMS]

What? No Somaliland?!

[Colin]

Here's what I say:

Palestine - only one of these I'd bet on becoming independent, when it will happen is still up in the air though. Probably already would've had Arafat not been such an ass.

Yeah you're absolutely right there. It's almost inevitable now. Probably in the next 10 years an independent Palestinian state will emerge.

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Really depends on what happens. If the BQ/PQ become stronger this could become more and more of a possibility.

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It wont last long and if its backer Russia ever decides to stop funding it it's gone in about two weeks.

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Yeah probably right on your part.

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I think this is rather likely. Morocco is a strong ally of the US and if the US ever decides to put pressure on Morocco to give up Western Sahara that could be the kick in the pants that is needed to have them withdraw.

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Well depends on what you mean by independence? Northern Cyprus has been a de facto independent state now for over 30 years. It holds elections and has a functioning government it is just urecognized by every nation except it's supporter Turkey. That, I believe, puts it in a catagory with places like Somaliland, a place that has a functioning government but is not recognized by many. It may fall it may not depends on negotiations.

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It's possibly especially if the Socialists remain in power, since they are more prone to compromising with the regions and giving them more power especially since they rely on Socialist regionalist parties to govern. Within the next 25 years we could see Spain break apart, it's probably the most likely European country to break apart bar the former Yugoslavia, or whatever the hell its called now.

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Yeah that's basically what it has become. Unless Turkey is basically destroyed Kurdistan will never be fully united. It could be very likely though that if Iraq turns sour or their is a three-way Civil War we could then see an independent Kurdistan in the Northeast of Iraq but that is not a very good possibility.

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Yeah about as much of a chance as Alaska leaving the Union.

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Yep.

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Well it depends if Russia finds itself completely expended or if the war in Chechnya becomes a larger war in the Caucasus Russsia might decide a strategic pullout is necessary.

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I think this is very likely. Yugoslavia, or is it Serbia and Montenegro now, is so weak that I believe it will just fall apart one of these days and with it Montenegro will become an independent nation.

[Huckleberry Finn]

Here's what I say:

Palestine - only one of these I'd bet on becoming independent, when it will happen is still up in the air though. Probably already would've had Arafat not been such an ass.

Yeah you're absolutely right there. It's almost inevitable now. Probably in the next 10 years an independent Palestinian state will emerge.

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Really depends on what happens. If the BQ/PQ become stronger this could become more and more of a possibility.

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It wont last long and if its backer Russia ever decides to stop funding it it's gone in about two weeks.

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Yeah probably right on your part.

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I think this is rather likely. Morocco is a strong ally of the US and if the US ever decides to put pressure on Morocco to give up Western Sahara that could be the kick in the pants that is needed to have them withdraw.

Western Sahara is too poor for independence. And US has no interest to pressure Morocco on this issue.

[Siege40]

I doubt any of these lands have any real chance at independence.

Siege

[MasterJedi]

Palestine, Basque lands and Tibet (I really hope this one gets it and I don't really care about the other two).

[Hatman 🍁]

What about Taiwan?

The following message is blocked by the servers in the People's Republic of China.

Taiwan is already independent

[MaC]

it would be really great if Tibet got independence, but looks like odds are just slightly better than a snowflake's chance. 

[M]

Montenegro, Palestine, and Western Sahara. Indeed, these are the only countries really likely to gain eventual independence any time in the near future.

[Gabu]

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Really depends on what happens. If the BQ/PQ become stronger this could become more and more of a possibility.

I think you have cause and effect backwards in this scenario: more support for independence would lead to the BQ becoming stronger, not the other way around.

[Maastricht]

Northern Cyprus (I mean by voting for this country : independance from Turkey, and Cyprus reunified), Palestine and Montenegro (Kosovo should also be in the list). Id' also like Tibet to be independant or at least to have a better will than nowadays ...

About the others:

Corsica : Well ... FLNC (corsican independantists) are just little kids compared to IRA or ETA. No way then.
Quebec: I'm not really aware about what's happening there, but i think it will never happen. When I think De Gaulle wanted to make Quebec a french state ...
South Ossetia : Independance attempts didn't work under Eltsine, doesn't work under Putin, and won't work under Putin's successor. War is going to last a long time there ...
Western Sahara : A referendum was scheduled by UNO in the 90s, we're still waiting for it ...
Baque Lands : I don't think it will ever be independant. but Spain will possibly be in the future kind of Europe's USA ...
Kurdistan : I'd like that country to exist, but it's quite a fantasyland because of Iran and Turket. Too bad.
Brittany : Independance, what for ? ...
Chechenya : same as North Ossety
Aceh : Sould be possible within 10-20 years. timor Letse became independant, so wy not Aceh ?
Tamil Land : Same as Aceh.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Brittany : Independance, what for ? ...

Didn't you have some seccesionist movements and terrorist groups in the 70s, basically claiming it should be independent because the ancestry is mostly Celtic? Largely died out now though I believe.

Aceh : Sould be possible within 10-20 years. timor Letse became independant, so wy not Aceh ?

Ah, there's a difference though. Timor Letse was not originally part of Indonesia, it was a Portuguese colony that shortly after gaining independence was illegaly seized by the Suharto regime (with the bullsh**t "there were lots of Communists there" excuse, yeah right).  After that basically every nation was trying to get Indonesia to pull out because it was oppressing the nation that it never held and holding it in with sheer force. Not really the same case here, more like Chechnya.

[freek]

Here's what I say:

Montenegro - seems to be stable in the union now, but such loose confederations tend not to last. I'd be on it sometime in the later future.

In 2002 a three year moratorium on independence referendums in Serbia & Montenegro was negotiated. A referendum in Montenegro (and maybe also in Serbia) will therefore take place in 2006 at the earliest. So independence might be reality next year already.

[Jens]

Ah, there's a difference though. Timor Letse was not originally part of Indonesia, it was a Portuguese colony that shortly after gaining independence was illegaly seized by the Suharto regime (with the bullsh**t "there were lots of Communists there" excuse, yeah right).  After that basically every nation was trying to get Indonesia to pull out because it was oppressing the nation that it never held and holding it in with sheer force.

As a matter of fact those nice fellars in Australia did very much support the incorporation of Est Timor or Timor Leste (same thing, just in Portuguese) into Indonesia. And nobody really cared about a dirt poor former Portuguese colony, so if it wasn't for the hard work of FRETILIN and guys like Bishop Belo and Xanana Gusmão, the current president in creating an East Timornese state, Timor Leste might have been yet a shortlived creation like Biafra.

Westen Sahara is closest to becoming a nation but POLISARIO lacks any significant international pressure group and charismatic leaders