IF Merkel is "forced out" soon... then what?
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  IF Merkel is "forced out" soon... then what?
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Author Topic: IF Merkel is "forced out" soon... then what?  (Read 4264 times)
ingemann
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« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2017, 01:26:52 PM »

Depends on successor. Schulz as experienced leader in Europe would do a far better job than Merkel.

Yeah, I wanted to say; at the moment, Merkel's most serious challengers are those who are more pro-European project than she is. It would be her successor.

It could be, but he would have to earn the respect and authority. For thee immediate future it would be the Pope, I think.

In most cases I would agree, but Schulz are rather unusual, he's MEP who is pretty well known and respected outside his homeland (usual MEP who are well known are more infamous than famous). He have succeed in translating his position in EU parliament to real power, which are also rare, where the politicians usual running the show (the head of the member states) have had to take him serious. So he's a well known actor among the European political establishment, which means that the other PMs/presidents already know how to fit him into their network of interests.
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2017, 04:08:51 PM »

Lena Dunham
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2017, 04:29:12 PM »

     Celebrations would follow, naturally.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #28 on: January 27, 2017, 06:59:39 AM »

One scenario where I could see Merkel leaving soon (and semi-voluntarily...no one in German politics is currently strong enough to force her out) is Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency.
Because that would mean the end of the EU as we know it. In the aftermath, we might see a broadly nationalist coalition - led by whatever CDU leader replaces Merkel and/or her interim successor (dropping a name here: Jens Spahn) - campaigning against a broadly internationalist coalition (Schulz is a good fit to lead that one).

Leader of the free world? There won't be any free world to lead by that point. CrabCake nailed it - China is going to use that chance to become leader of THE world. If they feel they need to liberalize in order to do so, they will. Xi is no Mao.
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Derpist
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« Reply #29 on: January 27, 2017, 07:22:06 AM »

Whoever Germany replaces her with would almost certainly be a better version of Merkel, because the only way to replace her is an SPD-Linke-Green coalition, which would put forward someone who simultaneously backs away from the hardline austerity tearing Europe apart and the anti-Russian hysteria of the Atlanticist Right (thanks to Linke).
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BRTD
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« Reply #30 on: January 29, 2017, 11:42:44 PM »

Also why has no one mentioned Justin Trudeau?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #31 on: January 30, 2017, 12:44:12 AM »

Also why has no one mentioned Justin Trudeau?
Canada is simply too small, and given the dependence of our economy on the US and you-know-who's short temper, there are strong limits on what he can say in public.

All political employees of the Government of Canada have been told under no uncertain terms, even down to local constituency staff, not to criticize you-know-who in public.

I'm still sticking with Pope Francis. He and his surrogates are relishing this fight ahead.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #32 on: January 30, 2017, 10:54:39 PM »

Also why has no one mentioned Justin Trudeau?

Isn't he pretty much an empty suit elected on his fathers name and good looks? I may be wrong, I don't follow Canadian politics much. Also I'm not sure how anyone who is truley liberal could praise Castro the way he did.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #33 on: January 31, 2017, 12:10:43 AM »


even if meant as a joke, in some ways there is a lot of truth to this.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #34 on: January 31, 2017, 01:07:11 PM »

Isn't he pretty much an empty suit elected on his fathers name and good looks? I may be wrong, I don't follow Canadian politics much. Also I'm not sure how anyone who is truley liberal could praise Castro the way he did.
He won in large part because Harper thought he could rescue his failing campaign by becoming a microwaved version of Trump. Instead it blew up in his face and now he's slinked on to become his part-time party fundraising director, part-time lobbyist. Sad!
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #35 on: January 31, 2017, 06:01:02 PM »

Whoever Germany replaces her with would almost certainly be a better version of Merkel, because the only way to replace her is an SPD-Linke-Green coalition, which would put forward someone who simultaneously backs away from the hardline austerity tearing Europe apart and the anti-Russian hysteria of the Atlanticist Right (thanks to Linke).

The most likely replacement for Merkel is within her party, when she chooses to retire. But, even if her replacement were due to the left-wing parties winning an election, that is no guarantee of continued German internationalist leadership. If Gerhard Schroder were the German Chancellor today, no one would be calling him leader of the free world.
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Blue3
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« Reply #36 on: November 22, 2017, 08:40:29 PM »

Well, this has become more possible recently.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #37 on: November 22, 2017, 09:28:38 PM »

It really depends what the results of the next elections looks like. If the CDU regains some lost ground, she's probably back in the driver's seat. If it slips further, she's probably done for, and then all bets are off.
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America Needs R'hllor
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« Reply #38 on: November 23, 2017, 09:59:05 AM »

Macron, probably. He's already trying to get the driver's seat in the EU.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #39 on: November 23, 2017, 02:33:43 PM »

Macron, probably. He's already trying to get the driver's seat in the EU.

Agreed, I think Macron will take over Merkel's role even if she stays in office (which for the moment is by far the most likely thing) because she's pretty weakened now
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wxtransit
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« Reply #40 on: November 24, 2017, 01:20:46 PM »

I haven't followed the coalition talks since September, so can someone help explain to me what the heck just happened? I thought the CDU/CSU-FDP-Green was fairly certain.
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #41 on: November 25, 2017, 02:29:10 AM »

I haven't followed the coalition talks since September, so can someone help explain to me what the heck just happened? I thought the CDU/CSU-FDP-Green was fairly certain.
FDP and the Greens had irreconcilable differences on some economic issues and the Greens wanted even more open borders, which the CDU knew was the cause of their bad performance in the first place. Merkel seems to be leaning towards a snap election if the Social Democrats don't make another grand coalition with her.

Side note: Calling Merkel the "leader of the free world" when Germans can be arrested for Facebook posts is maddening to me. The free world is dead, especially in Germany.
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wxtransit
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« Reply #42 on: November 26, 2017, 01:20:50 AM »

I haven't followed the coalition talks since September, so can someone help explain to me what the heck just happened? I thought the CDU/CSU-FDP-Green was fairly certain.
FDP and the Greens had irreconcilable differences on some economic issues and the Greens wanted even more open borders, which the CDU knew was the cause of their bad performance in the first place. Merkel seems to be leaning towards a snap election if the Social Democrats don't make another grand coalition with her.

Side note: Calling Merkel the "leader of the free world" when Germans can be arrested for Facebook posts is maddening to me. The free world is dead, especially in Germany.
Ok, makes sense.

I think people call her the "leader of the free world" because they believe that since Trump is president, America is no longer free (I guess?).
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #43 on: November 26, 2017, 07:07:03 AM »

Whoever Germany replaces her with would almost certainly be a better version of Merkel, because the only way to replace her is an SPD-Linke-Green coalition, which would put forward someone who simultaneously backs away from the hardline austerity tearing Europe apart and the anti-Russian hysteria of the Atlanticist Right (thanks to Linke).

Yeah I agree, she represents the worst of establishment conservatism. I think it would be hard to do any worse than her at this point.
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mvd10
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« Reply #44 on: November 26, 2017, 08:20:36 AM »

Whoever Germany replaces her with would almost certainly be a better version of Merkel, because the only way to replace her is an SPD-Linke-Green coalition, which would put forward someone who simultaneously backs away from the hardline austerity tearing Europe apart and the anti-Russian hysteria of the Atlanticist Right (thanks to Linke).

Yeah I agree, she represents the worst of establishment conservatism. I think it would be hard to do any worse than her at this point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_von_der_Leyen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annegret_Kramp-Karrenbauer

Are you sure? I think I'd be begging for Merkel to return if one of these 2 takes over, and apparently they are serious possibilities (though I think it will be Spahn in the end). I wish the zu Guttenberg scandal had never happened. I think he'd be a shoo-in for Merkel successor if he hadn't been forced to resign. And Germany badly needs a CSU Chancellor Smiley.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #45 on: November 26, 2017, 11:40:41 AM »

Whoever Germany replaces her with would almost certainly be a better version of Merkel, because the only way to replace her is an SPD-Linke-Green coalition, which would put forward someone who simultaneously backs away from the hardline austerity tearing Europe apart and the anti-Russian hysteria of the Atlanticist Right (thanks to Linke).

Yeah I agree, she represents the worst of establishment conservatism. I think it would be hard to do any worse than her at this point.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_von_der_Leyen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annegret_Kramp-Karrenbauer

Are you sure? I think I'd be begging for Merkel to return if one of these 2 takes over, and apparently they are serious possibilities (though I think it will be Spahn in the end). I wish the zu Guttenberg scandal had never happened. I think he'd be a shoo-in for Merkel successor if he hadn't been forced to resign. And Germany badly needs a CSU Chancellor Smiley.

OK I agree with you here, you're right on all these points.
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Blue3
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« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2018, 11:02:27 PM »

Relevant... so who will become the new perceived "leader of the free world"?

Not Trump.

Not May.


Macron?

Trudeau?

Who?
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Lachi
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« Reply #47 on: October 30, 2018, 01:57:58 AM »

In the EU, probably Macron.
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rc18
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« Reply #48 on: October 30, 2018, 03:15:43 AM »

Macron’s approval rating is below 30%, he’s less popular than Theresa May.  That takes work.

And since when did “leader of the free world” mean “most media-fawned globalist shill”?
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2018, 03:46:36 AM »

Also why has no one mentioned Justin Trudeau?

I second that. Canada may not be a huge economical power, but when the media talk about the "Free world" they mostly refer to social issues and cultural influence. His stance on same-sex marriage and legalization of Cannabis is very popular worldwide, and Drake and Justin Bieber have been conquering the whole world.
Trudeau has been mentioned in his three years of leadership waaay more often in the German media than Harper's ten-year tenure. I assume that most Europeans hadn't even ever heard of Stephen Harper. Quite many know Trudeau's name, though.
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