2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions.

[JJC]

Here's the 270toWin interactive map for 2018. Feel free to post your predictions. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/

Overall, 33 seats are up for election in 2018. Oh those, 25 are held by democrats, while 8 are held by the GOP.

[JJC]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aRODg2

Net of R+1: GOP gains ND, IN, and MO. Dems gain AZ and NV. This is assuming a Trump approval of 40%, which is fair or too generous to him, depending on who you ask.

Maybe, but just remember that everything Trump is doing right now - while unpopular in coastal cities - is tremendously popular among rural and rust belt voters.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats do have tough seats to protect but you map suggest that a Republican Revolution is going to happen with already unpopular Republican President. R+2 or R+3 is more likely. 

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aRODg2

Net of R+1: GOP gains ND, IN, and MO. Dems gain AZ and NV. This is assuming a Trump approval of 40%, which is fair or too generous to him, depending on who you ask.

Maybe, but just remember that everything Trump is doing right now - while unpopular in coastal cities - is tremendously popular among rural and rust belt voters.

Yes, but this is the crowdpleasing stuff. Once congress gets to work on healthcare and 'entitlements' that could savage affection these people have for the Republicans. Somebody reminded me of the upstate NY special election in the middle of Obama s first term that was held amidst discussions on entitlement and it resulted in a very embarrassing loss for the republicans, all things considered.

Anyway, I don't really know how it will go. I have no faith in the ability of Democrats, so for all we know trump will be at outright Hollande levels and still the dems lose a bunch of seats. All I know is that if Hillary had narrowly scraped in, 2018 would be an outright nightmarish obliteration of historic proportions.

[JJC]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

States that I think are gone for dems;
ND, MT, MO, and IN

Tossup;
FL, OH, PA, WI, MI, and NV.

WV is special in that it depends if Manchin runs as a dem or republican. If he stays dem, then the seat is lean D.

Everything else is lean or solid towards the incumbent party.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

[Intell]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aRODg2

Democrats gain AZ + NV, while losing ND.

Net: D+1

[JJC]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

See: MA-Sen in 1996. Or 2012. And no, Hogan would be DOA in a Senate race. Maylanders might tolerate him as Governor, but they will not send an R to the Senate so long as a Republican is in the White House.

I would not use the word 'tolerate' for a guy who has 74% approval rating (and a 66% approval among dems). http://2qtvrz46wjcg34jx1h1blgd2.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Gonzales-Maryland-Media-Poll-January-2017.pdf

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

There are 11 states with R+ 2016 PVIs and Democratic incumbents in 2018.  The filibuster-proof majority is quite likely, and I will be disappointed if we don't get it.

[JJC]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

There are 11 states with R+ 2016 PVIs and Democratic incumbents in 2018.  The filibuster-proof majority is quite likely, and I will be disappointed if we don't get it.

Yep. Also this;


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/trumps_first_term_and_perhaps_a_second.html

WV - rural
ND - rural
MT - rural
MO - rural/rust belt
IN - rust belt
OH - rust belt
FL - diversified
PA - rust belt
WI - rust belt
MI - rust belt
MN - rust belt
ME - rural

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

There are 11 states with R+ 2016 PVIs and Democratic incumbents in 2018.  The filibuster-proof majority is quite likely, and I will be disappointed if we don't get it.

Yep. Also this;


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/trumps_first_term_and_perhaps_a_second.html

WV - rural
ND - rural
MT - rural
MO - rural/rust belt
IN - rust belt
OH - rust belt
FL - diversified
PA - rust belt
WI - rust belt
MI - rust belt
MN - rust belt
ME - rural

Because ticket splitting doesn't exist, especially not with incumbents and a wavy midterm.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

There are 11 states with R+ 2016 PVIs and Democratic incumbents in 2018.  The filibuster-proof majority is quite likely, and I will be disappointed if we don't get it.

Yep. Also this;


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/trumps_first_term_and_perhaps_a_second.html

WV - rural
ND - rural
MT - rural
MO - rural/rust belt
IN - rust belt
OH - rust belt
FL - diversified
PA - rust belt
WI - rust belt
MI - rust belt
MN - rust belt
ME - rural

Because ticket splitting doesn't exist, especially not with incumbents and a wavy midterm.

Sorry.  Democrats don't vote in midterms.  It won't be a good Democratic year, as much as you wish it would.  I even think the Republicans pick up seats in the House.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

There are 11 states with R+ 2016 PVIs and Democratic incumbents in 2018.  The filibuster-proof majority is quite likely, and I will be disappointed if we don't get it.

Yep. Also this;


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/10/trumps_first_term_and_perhaps_a_second.html

WV - rural
ND - rural
MT - rural
MO - rural/rust belt
IN - rust belt
OH - rust belt
FL - diversified
PA - rust belt
WI - rust belt
MI - rust belt
MN - rust belt
ME - rural

Because ticket splitting doesn't exist, especially not with incumbents and a wavy midterm.

Sorry.  Democrats don't vote in midterms.  It won't be a good Democratic year, as much as you wish it would.  I even think the Republicans pick up seats in the House.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2006

[Lachi]

The republican's over confidence here is exactly the same as the Democrat's over confidence in 2016, and we know how that went.

Republicans gain 2 at most

[Hindsight was 2020]

R pick ups;
IND: Todd Rokita over Joe Donnelly
MO: Ann Wagner over Claire McCaskill

D pick ups:
AZ: Mark Kelly over Kelli Ward
NV: Dina Titus over Dean Heller
TX: Joaquín Castro over Ted Cruz

D +1 while winning the house

[JA]

Substantially more likely than a Democratic majority:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQObB8

67-33; Veto-Proof Majority

MN would be tough to crack.

One overlooked state is MA. If widely popular Baker jumps in, then Warren could be in trouble.

Another blue state that could be in trouble is MD if Hogan jumps in, although I doubt he will.

I don't think AZ will be in play at all. NV is the only GOP state I think we could lose.

I think I'm getting hackishness poisoning. Somebody call an ambulance.

Is it just me or have the Trumpistas/nationalist started going crazy on this forum? Where are all the reasonable Republicans hiding?

[Crumpets]

My current prediction: Rs net +2

The biggest wild card race is Arizona, where I think Jeff Flake is prime for a Trumpist primary challenge. If he survives, safe R. If he loses, tossup.

[The_Doctor]

GOP picks up 4 seats in the Senate, to go to 56 (ND, WV, IN, and MO) while they lose 4 seats in the House. It becomes a "disappointing" midterm as the GOP is unable to pick off Brown (OH), Kaine (VA), Brown (FL), etc. etc.

In the governorships, Dems pick up a bunch of governorships and legislatures, affecting the redistricting struggle of 2020.

[krazen1211]

R+6. So many Blanchings!

[Figueira]

My prediction for what will actually happen: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/29JGB8

Republicans end up with a 54-46 majority (gaining MO/IN/ND and losing NV). Obviously a lot of those are tossups though. I actually think McCaskill shouldn't be underestimated; I don't think her huge win in 2012 was purely because of Akin being terrible.

Regarding Baker and Hogan being SUPER-POPULAR:

1. Why would they even run? They have a pretty good shot at re-election as Governor, so why risk losing a national election? It would make more sense for Baker to run against Markey in 2020 (and he would also lose against him, but at least he has nothing to lose at that point).
2. The reason why they're popular is because they don't have to do much as Governor due to the huge majorities held by the Democrats in those states. In a Senate race, once voters realize what policies they would actually vote for in Washington, they'll vote to keep them home. Also, just because 74% of Marylanders approve of Hogan doesn't mean they're super-enthusiastic about him.

I mean, sure, if I were the GOP, I'd probably try to recruit Baker and Hogan for 2018. But don't expect them to win.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Because why the fck not.

[Figueira]

My current prediction: Rs net +2

The biggest wild card race is Arizona, where I think Jeff Flake is prime for a Trumpist primary challenge. If he survives, safe R. If he loses, tossup.

It seems a bit silly to call a one-term incumbent in a relatively swingy state who won his previous election by 3 points "safe."

[Figueira]

My prediction for what will actually happen: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2XOWBa

Republicans end up with a 55-45 majority (gaining MO/IN/ND and losing NV). Obviously a lot of those are tossups though. I actually think McCaskill shouldn't be underestimated; I don't think her huge win in 2012 was purely because of Akin being terrible.

Regarding Baker and Hogan being SUPER-POPULAR:

1. Why would they even run? They have a pretty good shot at re-election as Governor, so why risk losing a national election? It would make more sense for Baker to run against Markey in 2020 (and he would also lose against him, but at least he has nothing to lose at that point).
2. The reason why they're popular is because they don't have to do much as Governor due to the huge majorities held by the Democrats in those states. In a Senate race, once voters realize what policies they would actually vote for in Washington, they'll vote to keep them home. Also, just because 74% of Marylanders approve of Hogan doesn't mean they're super-enthusiastic about him.

I mean, sure, if I were the GOP, I'd probably try to recruit Baker and Hogan for 2018. But don't expect them to win.

Florida? I can only see that flipping if Nelson retires, honestly. And I agree on McCaskill and Heitkamp not being underestimated. If Trump is really that unpopular, why in the world would people throw out their D Senators in place of someone who wouldn't do anything to reign him in? They're assuming that all his votes in those states are pure love for Trump, and I'm skeptical of that. There's definitely a path for the red state Dems, even if it's narrow. It likely involves getting on Trump's good side, even as he craters in popularity and championing individual state issues.

Florida was a mistake; I have no idea how that happened. Let me edit my post.

[Figueira]

There, edited. While it's possible that Republicans could gain Florida (especially if Nelson retires), I can't call it likely at this point.