2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions.

[peterthlee]

Also my gut feeling tells me that Nelson will win 54-44.

[JoshPA]

my prediction if trump do a good job Dont even try to bring up the polls by the same media that oversample democrats i dont believe them nor now. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/29JGB8

[Hindsight was 2020]

Also my gut feeling tells me that Nelson will win 54-44.

If that happens, hello Gov. Graham and a D state cabinet.

Gov. John Morgan you mean

[Tartarus Sauce]

The republican's over confidence here is exactly the same as the Democrat's over confidence in 2016, and we know how that went.

Republicans gain 2 at most

If anything we should encourage them to revel in their hubris for exactly that reason.

[Person Man]

my prediction if trump do a good job Dont even try to bring up the polls by the same media that oversample democrats i dont believe them nor now. http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/29JGB8

That minus McCaskell if he stays in low 40s. He will Arizona before IN and ND....but who knows..

[Hindsight was 2020]

Here's mine https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/23kwy2

[Dr. MB]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aQoyz8

Out of ND, MO, OH, and IN, I think Republicans will gain either 1 or 2 of those, with the most likely to go being Missouri. I think Democrats also will gain AZ and NV, but I put as tossups because they have GOP incumbents and are traditional swing states.

So, according to this early prediction we will end up with either a 51-49 or 52-48 Republican majority.

[NewYorkExpress]

My pick:

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aYpDxl

Democrats trade Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia for Arizona and Nevada.

Montana, Ohio and Texas are essentially tossups, though I don't show it on this map.

[Sumner 1868]

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2kWdN2

Suspect Manchin is gone even in a wave.

[SamTilden2020]

I had a dream that this was the 2018 Senate map:

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lVAvV8

I felt guilty voting for Sinema because she won by one vote

Like Burns, I had a 2018 senate dream too.

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2BzOA2

The GOP winners were all lined up on some podium at an event. They were:

PA: Barletta

WV: Jenkins

OH: Mandel

MO: Peterson

IN: Messer

and I vaguely remember either Titus or Rosen being mentioned as winner of Nevada's race.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2kWdN2

Suspect Manchin is gone even in a wave.

I agree, but you could say the same thing about Donnelly/McCaskill.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats will need a wave in the Senate just to keep what they now have.  But an  unpopular Republican President is 'good' for such a wave.

In a normal election I would see Democratic seats in Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, Ohio, and West Virginia gone, with seats in Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin 'shaky'. Only Nevada would offer some chance of a Democratic pickup, and I would see a net of anywhere from four to ten losses by Democrats, with Republicans getting to establish their Christian and Corporate State, a worker's Hell and a plutocrat's paradise. One might as well replace Old Glory with the Stars and Bars, if not a red flag with some 100%-American fascist symbol in a white circle.

But think of what the brutally-treated worker gets: in return for fifty years of misery that begins with childhood poverty, a working career that begins around 13 to become 50-70 hours of harsh toil under brutal management for near-starvation wages that wears people out by age 45, he gets a promise of eternal Bliss from Almighty God who allegedly sees this as the test of a worker's faith  in the fascist-feudal economy.  Any failure to accept such would lead to execution or starvation followed by eternal damnation. 

...No, that is not going to happen. Donald Trump and the GOP are political poison outside of the Intermountain West  other than Nevada this time and  the Mountain and Deep South, Voting against the President's Party is all that people have.

We still have an echo of the 2006 wave, largely, and we have yet to see the reverse wave. But 2016 was to be the reverse wave of 2010, and we Americans  have the ugliest political order in the Industrialized West since the fall of Pinochet in Chile.       

[Sumner 1868]

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2kWdN2

Suspect Manchin is gone even in a wave.

I agree, but you could say the same thing about Donnelly/McCaskill.

Nah, his approval and disapproval rating in those states are about even unlike WV. In WV he is genuinely loved by a majority.

[Inmate Trump]

https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/lnWkQa

[bagelman]

R gains: IN, WI, MO, ND, MT

D gains: AL, NV

I'm skeptical about the Dems gaining AZ. AL could be wishful thinking, but I have to remain hopeful in the race of Moore.

Overall: R+3

[Cactus Jack]

http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/293bXl

Tied Senate. After Virginia, I have no faith whatever that Republicans will actually manage their lines of defense competently next year.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats can at best hope for a tie based on holding what they have (which will include Senate seats in Indiana and Missouri that the current holders facing extremist challengers), and flipping seats in Arizona and Nevada.

Anything more depends on deaths in the family or Republican defections. I will not names on such.

[Illiniwek]

R gains: WI

Do you mean WV? Hard to see Tammy going down.

[Alabama_Indy10]

R gains: IN, WI, MO, ND, MT

D gains: AL, NV

I'm skeptical about the Dems gaining AZ. AL could be wishful thinking, but I have to remain hopeful in the race of Moore.

Overall: R+3

It is wishful thinking. Recent polls have Moore up double digits

[Mr. Smith]

D Gains in AZ and NV. All else, despite the odds holds, with Sherrod Brown pulling a Ron Johnson.

No gains, just a hold through...unless a dark-horse pulls a Cory Gardner or a less steep Kander.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats gain both Nevada and Arizona.

After last night, the GOP's chances of flipping a democrat seat is about 15-20%. McCaskill is the one keeping it that high because she's the most vulnerable Democrat, but even I can't see her losing reelection.

[Badger]

See the above two posts for my take.

[politics_king]

Arizona and Nevada will flip because of the massive amount of grassroots organizing that's going on there and the demographic changes. I don't see Democrats losing any seats honestly and I think Alabama & Tennessee could be in possible play with the two GOP candidates they are about to roll out. I honestly think the Democrats could win back the Senate. But if anything, with no map in place, that the Senate being at 50-50 is the most likely outcome of this whole ordeal. The House will be tough too, but right now, Trump is really leaving a bad taste in the Independent voters mouth and Independent voters are really the ones who decide these elections.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Manchin and Nelson are vulnerable for the Democrats.  Manchin may well pull it off.  I'm less convinced about Nelson; Rick Scott is running for his seat, and Scott, surprisingly, is well thought of, moreso now than at any point in his Governorship.  (I have never voted for Scott and don't intend to, but he's been routinely underestimated by Democrats.)

I see Heitkamp being re-elected.  And McCaskill. 

If Democrats were smart, they'd find a way to make Tennessee competitive.  It's not out of the question.