Talleyrand's 2018 Senate Predictions

[Talleyrand]

Okay, here are my tentative predictions almost 2 years out.

Safe R

Mississippi
Missouri- McCaskill be blanched by Ann Wagner. In addition to sitting in a state Trump won by 20 points, she's highly unpopular.
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Likely R

Arizona- As long as Flake makes it through the primary, this seat will be held by the Republicans, and I fully expect any challenge to fizzle out. In addition, I doubt an A-lister like Sinema will run.
Indiana- Donnelly is a non-entity who got lucky in 2012 with a terrible opponent. He'll lose comfortably to someone like Luke Messer or Susan Brooks.
North Dakota- Democrats are as good as dead in this state. Heitkamp has had some decent approvals in some polls, but her balancing act b/w Big Oil and the Dem base in this state suggests she has almost no room for error. She will almost certainly lose.

Lean R

Montana- Tester is highly overrated, and has bad approvals. He'll keep it close, but probably lose to someone like Tim Fox.
Nevada- This is a good target on paper for Dems, but with no top tier candidates on the horizon, it may be less enticing than it seems. In addition, the Reid machine will no longer be out in full force, and Nevada could very well revert to its red midterm status.
West Virginia- If the election were held today, Manchin would win, but the moment Trump sets foot in this state and starts campaigning against him, he'll be in a dicey situation.

Tossup

Florida- Nelson is the only candidate who can hold this seat for the Dems, but he'll likely face a stiff challenge from an experienced challenger like Rick Scott in a midterm year likely to be difficult for Democrats in his home state.
Ohio- Brown is an excellent fit for Ohio, but Josh Mandel is an extremely strong candidate who is running in an increasingly red state. Pure tossup.
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey is very low energy and ran a terrible campaign in 2012. He does have a good family name and some personal support in NEPA and SWPA, but Pat Meehan would instantly make this a barnburner.
Wisconsin- Baldwin will struggle to hold off Duffy. Fortunately, anti-Trump sentiment might save her.

Lean D

Maine- King will win if he runs again, but if he doesn't, a strong Republican like Bruce Poliquin could very well snatch this seat.
Michigan- Stabenow has gotten extremely lucky with the political climates she's ran in, and the opponents she's ran against. That said, she's a relatively savvy campaigner who would probably still be slightly favored over any Republican challenger at this point.

Likely D

Virginia- Kaine is safe unless Barbara Comstock runs, but that seems unlikely for now.

Safe D

California   
Connecticut   
Delaware   
Hawaii   
Massachusetts   
Maryland   
Minnesota   
New Jersey
New Mexico   
New York   
Rhode Island   
Vermont
Washington


Right now, we're probably looking at a Republican net gain of between 5 and 9 seats, giving them their largest senate majority in decades (57-61 seats).

[SWE]

A little too optimistic for my tastes. I'd start Brown and Baldwin as underdogs.

[Talleyrand]

A little too optimistic for my tastes. I'd start Brown and Baldwin as underdogs.

There is a good case for this too. If I had to remove the tossup category entirely, I'd put Brown and Baldwin in Lean R and Nelson and Casey in Lean D. That leaves Rs just one off a filibuster-proof majority.

[jamestroll]

No no no.

McCaskill will not be blanched. Just because you do not like someone does not mean she will be blanched. Also Wagner has some indications she may not run for Senate.

I have not seen a single poll showing McCaskill under water in favorability since 2012.

McCaskill may well lose but she won't be blanched.

Also.. WULFRIC ENDORSED MCCASKILL

[GlobeSoc]

If this was under a Hillary presidency, I would agree.

North Dakota and maybe Indiana are the only ones of the competitive seats that I have any genuine pessimism about, and even there I think a Dem win is possible.

In particular, you are assuming worst case scenario in every case for the Democrats.

Flake being successfully primaried is a real possibility, Ann Wagner might get shot down by Trump, his allies, or an opportunist tying themselves to Trump, Tester is a good fit for his state and Montana likes downballot dems for some reason, etc.

 And there's the big one, what the midterm electorate looks like in the first non-dem midterm in 12 years.

[SWE]

A little too optimistic for my tastes. I'd start Brown and Baldwin as underdogs.

Baldwin? I'm not so sure about that. Sean Duffy seems more like a Republican Patrick Murphy than someone who actually ends up winning. Of course, it's unlikely that Wisconsin will hold a free-and-fair election in 2018, so who knows.n't lose the seat, IMO.

Oh, I absolutely think that Baldwin will win more votes than her opponent. I just think that margin will be close enough that Walker will find enough votes to arbitrarily declare fraudulent to throw out and give the race to Duffy.

[GlobeSoc]

Also, Trump's absurd rural margins are not the new floor there for the GOP until there is evidence of that being the case.

[Heisenberg]

Ohio- Brown is an excellent fit for Ohio, but Josh Mandel is an extremely strong candidate who is running in an increasingly red state. Pure tossup.

Excellent fit? Other than trade and some labor issues, I'd imagine he's pretty out of touch on guns, abortion, sanctuary cities, etc.

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Duffy is a great speaker, represents WI-07, and is pretty entrenched there, which helps. I think he'll easily win that district over Baldwin. And of course, WOW will never vote for a progressive like Baldwin. Duffy should win with a coalition of Trump margins in WI-03/07 and Romney margins in WI-05/06, so long as Trump doesn't screw up too badly. The Republican ground game in Wisconsin seems to be pretty good.

A little too optimistic for my tastes. I'd start Brown and Baldwin as underdogs.

Baldwin? I'm not so sure about that. Sean Duffy seems more like a Republican Patrick Murphy than someone who actually ends up winning. Of course, it's unlikely that Wisconsin will hold a free-and-fair election in 2018, so who knows.n't lose the seat, IMO.

Oh, I absolutely think that Baldwin will win more votes than her opponent. I just think that margin will be close enough that Walker will find enough votes to arbitrarily declare fraudulent to throw out and give the race to Duffy.

I can't imagine a Walker/Baldwin voter. Wisconsin is too polarized for that, both are polarizing figures who are far from the political center.

[jamestroll]

I have not seen a single poll showing McCaskill under water in favorability since 2012.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

She's at 39/46 there.
[/quote]

Whoops Thank you. I know the latest public poll had her at 48/38 iirc. Pretty much on par with Blunts.

[Xing]

I think these are a bit bearish on the Democrats, especially if Trump is unpopular next year. The only rating I'd move to the right is Wisconsin, which is obviously 100% gone for Democrats. Baldwin would have a better chance of moving to Texas and beating Cruz than winning in Wisconsin New West Virginia.

[MAINEiac4434]

Okay, here are my tentative predictions almost 2 years out.

Safe R

Mississippi
Missouri- McCaskill be blanched by Ann Wagner. In addition to sitting in a state Drumpf won by 20 points, she's highly unpopular.
Nebraska
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Likely R

Arizona- As long as Flake makes it through the primary, this seat will be held by the Republicans, and I fully expect any challenge to fizzle out. In addition, I doubt an A-lister like Sinema will run.
Indiana- Donnelly is a non-entity who got lucky in 2012 with a terrible opponent. He'll lose comfortably to someone like Luke Messer or Susan Brooks.
North Dakota- Democrats are as good as dead in this state. Heitkamp has had some decent approvals in some polls, but her balancing act b/w Big Oil and the Dem base in this state suggests she has almost no room for error. She will almost certainly lose.

Lean R

Montana- Tester is highly overrated, and has bad approvals. He'll keep it close, but probably lose to someone like Tim Fox.
Nevada- This is a good target on paper for Dems, but with no top tier candidates on the horizon, it may be less enticing than it seems. In addition, the Reid machine will no longer be out in full force, and Nevada could very well revert to its red midterm status.
West Virginia- If the election were held today, Manchin would win, but the moment Drumpf sets foot in this state and starts campaigning against him, he'll be in a dicey situation.

Tossup

Florida- Nelson is the only candidate who can hold this seat for the Dems, but he'll likely face a stiff challenge from an experienced challenger like Rick Scott in a midterm year likely to be difficult for Democrats in his home state.
Ohio- Brown is an excellent fit for Ohio, but Josh Mandel is an extremely strong candidate who is running in an increasingly red state. Pure tossup.
Pennsylvania- Bob Casey is very low energy and ran a terrible campaign in 2012. He does have a good family name and some personal support in NEPA and SWPA, but Pat Meehan would instantly make this a barnburner.
Wisconsin- Baldwin will struggle to hold off Duffy. Fortunately, anti-Drumpf sentiment might save her.

Lean D

Maine- King will win if he runs again, but if he doesn't, a strong Republican like Bruce Poliquin could very well snatch this seat.
Michigan- Stabenow has gotten extremely lucky with the political climates she's ran in, and the opponents she's ran against. That said, she's a relatively savvy campaigner who would probably still be slightly favored over any Republican challenger at this point.

Likely D

Virginia- Kaine is safe unless Barbara Comstock runs, but that seems unlikely for now.

Safe D

California   
Connecticut   
Delaware   
Hawaii   
Massachusetts   
Maryland   
Minnesota   
New Jersey
New Mexico   
New York   
Rhode Island   
Vermont
Washington


Right now, we're probably looking at a Republican net gain of between 5 and 9 seats, giving them their largest senate majority in decades (57-61 seats).

Angus has already announced he's running.

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http://www.wmtw.com/article/a-fedex-driver-will-keep-job-after-saving-flag-from-burning/8651414

[Kingpoleon]

I can't imagine a Walker/Baldwin voter. Wisconsin is too polarized for that, both are polarizing figures who are far from the political center.

It should be noted Doug La Follette won in 2010 53-47 even as Walker and Johnson won 52-48. In 2014 La Follette won 50-46 as the AG won 54-46 and Walker won 52-47.

[Heisenberg]

I can't imagine a Walker/Baldwin voter. Wisconsin is too polarized for that, both are polarizing figures who are far from the political center.

It should be noted Doug La Follette won in 2010 53-47 even as Walker and Johnson won 52-48. In 2014 La Follette won 50-46 as the AG won 54-46 and Walker won 52-47.

La Follette is somewhat of a special case, as the SoS is not as powerful or partisan, and sometime in his first term, Walker signed a bill that stripped the SoS of many powers because La Follette opposed much of Walker's labor policies. Also, his famous last name may help and except in 2014, I don't think his challengers were that serious. Anyway, both Walker and Baldwin are very extreme and polarizing, and both hold very powerful and partisan positions.

[peterthlee]

I don’t see FL falling to R unless Nelson opts out.
History is looping itself: Nelson just got a hyped up, seemingly robust challenger called Rick Scott.
I fear that he will implode more severely than Mack IV.
(I don’t hesitate to reiterate my thesis from nearby threads)

[Vega]

I don’t see FL falling to R unless Nelson opts out.
History is looping itself: Nelson just got a hyped up, seemingly robust challenger called Rick Scott.
I fear that he will implode more severely than Mack IV.
(I don’t hesitate to reiterate my thesis from nearby threads)

Particularly if a recession hits. Scott's popularity is already fairly low and if he's pursuing a Senate seat in the middle of an economic downturn, the optics of that look pretty bad.

Nelson isn't Sink or Crist - Scott may have been able to inch by those relatively weak candidates in wave years, but Nelson is a different story. I actually think that if the Republicans had someone else run against him they would do far better.

[Heisenberg]

I don’t see FL falling to R unless Nelson opts out.
History is looping itself: Nelson just got a hyped up, seemingly robust challenger called Rick Scott.
I fear that he will implode more severely than Mack IV.
(I don’t hesitate to reiterate my thesis from nearby threads)

Particularly if a recession hits. Scott's popularity is already fairly low and if he's pursuing a Senate seat in the middle of an economic downturn, the optics of that look pretty bad.

Nelson isn't Sink or Crist - Scott may have been able to inch by those relatively weak candidates in wave years, but Nelson is a different story. I actually think that if the Republicans had someone else run against him they would do far better.

Like who? Tom Rooney and Jeff Atwater are probably the only two who are stronger than Scott.

[Vega]

I don’t see FL falling to R unless Nelson opts out.
History is looping itself: Nelson just got a hyped up, seemingly robust challenger called Rick Scott.
I fear that he will implode more severely than Mack IV.
(I don’t hesitate to reiterate my thesis from nearby threads)

Particularly if a recession hits. Scott's popularity is already fairly low and if he's pursuing a Senate seat in the middle of an economic downturn, the optics of that look pretty bad.

Nelson isn't Sink or Crist - Scott may have been able to inch by those relatively weak candidates in wave years, but Nelson is a different story. I actually think that if the Republicans had someone else run against him they would do far better.

Like who? Tom Rooney and Jeff Atwater are probably the only two who are stronger than Scott.

My point is that despite being a two term Governor, Scott isn't that strong.

[Blackacre]

Duffy is a great speaker, represents WI-07, and is pretty entrenched there, which helps. I think he'll easily win that district over Baldwin. And of course, WOW will never vote for a progressive like Baldwin. Duffy should win with a coalition of Trump margins in WI-03/07 and Romney margins in WI-05/06, so long as Trump doesn't screw up too badly. The Republican ground game in Wisconsin seems to be pretty good.

What does WOW stand for?

[Heisenberg]

Duffy is a great speaker, represents WI-07, and is pretty entrenched there, which helps. I think he'll easily win that district over Baldwin. And of course, WOW will never vote for a progressive like Baldwin. Duffy should win with a coalition of Trump margins in WI-03/07 and Romney margins in WI-05/06, so long as Trump doesn't screw up too badly. The Republican ground game in Wisconsin seems to be pretty good.

What does WOW stand for?

The three super conservative, Milwaukee Suburban counties: Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha.

[Blackacre]

Duffy is a great speaker, represents WI-07, and is pretty entrenched there, which helps. I think he'll easily win that district over Baldwin. And of course, WOW will never vote for a progressive like Baldwin. Duffy should win with a coalition of Trump margins in WI-03/07 and Romney margins in WI-05/06, so long as Trump doesn't screw up too badly. The Republican ground game in Wisconsin seems to be pretty good.

What does WOW stand for?

The three super conservative, Milwaukee Suburban counties: Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha.

Oh okay! I thought it was a variation on WCW so I got confused as to what the O meant. Thanks!

[Hindsight was 2020]

It seriously feels like UT is heading to a 3 way race upset for the dems

[Cynthia]

The Senator to watch in 2018 is Jon Tester. GOP has almost no one to run for the seat.

Tim Fox, but he might want to run for governor more. How's Corey Stapleton, Montana's incumbent SOS?

[Heisenberg]

The Senator to watch in 2018 is Jon Tester. GOP has almost no one to run for the seat.

Tim Fox, but he might want to run for governor more. How's Corey Stapleton, Montana's incumbent SOS?

He just runs whenever there's an opening, and running after only two years as SoS would look too ambitious. State Sen. Ed Buttrey is my pick if Fox declines.

[Politician]

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[here2view]

This thread did not age well.

LMAO McCaskill getting Blanched. I think she's favored to win as of today. If she loses it won't be nearly close to Blanche Lincoln.