New Hampshire and Nevada in 1992

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

What transformed New Hampshire and Nevada from some of the most Republican states in the country in 1980 into the states outside Arkansas that swung hardest against Bush I (thus turning them into closely contested swing states approximately representative of the national popular vote, which they continue to be even unto this day)? What big event in 1992 turned Reagan's New Hampshire and Nevada to Maggie Hassan's New Hampshire and Catherine Cortez-Masto's Nevada?

[kcguy]

I went back and read some books from the 1990's.

For New Hampshire, it's fairly straightforward.  New Hampshire was in a housing bubble in the late 1980's.  Then, the state was especially hard hit by the 1990-91 recession.  New Hampshire, which doesn't have an income tax, was facing huge budget shortfalls, so property taxes were doubling at the same time property values were halving.  Then, on top of everything, Bush broke his "read my lips, no new taxes" pledge.  1992 was a good year not to be the establishment party.

For Nevada, nobody was sure, since the 1992 result came as a surprise to everyone.  One theory is that the Republicans' then-recent turn to "family values" didn't play well in a state known for gambling and prostitution.

[libertpaulian]

In the short-term?  Ross Perot.

In the long term?  A secularizing state like New Hampshire and a libertarian-ish state like Nevada wouldn't take too kindly to Pat Buchanan's 1992 speech.

[(Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31]

In the short-term?  Ross Perot.

In the long term?  A secularizing state like New Hampshire and a libertarian-ish state like Nevada wouldn't take too kindly to Pat Buchanan's 1992 speech.

-In New Hampshire, at least, it wasn't just Perot; WJC did better than Dukakis.

New Hampshire actually did go for Buchanan in the 1996 primary, though, as well as for Trump. And Nevada had one of the only caucuses in which Trump performed very well.

[DPKdebator]

White NH women love the Clintons.

Same thing in MA.