Will Trump get primaried?

[President Johnson]

Honestly, I hope he will get primaried big league. No matter whether it’s Kasich, Cruz (no matter what he currently states), Sasse or anybody. That doesn’t change the fact that Kamala Harris is my favorite and I would support any realistic Democratic nominee, but it weakens the Trumpster’s stance if there is a serious primary challenge. So let it be. Let him invest into the nomination.

I myself doubt it, but: Does anybody think there’s a slim chance that a challenge comes from Pence? Pence surely has certain ambitions, and if the Trump-Administration is a sinking ship, why shouldn’t he leave instead of having his career ended and name associated with a failed president for the rest of his life? I think he is far more loyal to his party than the Trumpster.

Also a possible candidate: Jeff Flake. A more establishment dude with relatively sane views. If he wins reelection in 2018 to the senate and his seat not up again until 2024, I wouldn’t rule a candidacy entirely out. He has never been a fan of the orange clown. However, any real candidate would only have a try if there’s a decent chance to oust the Trumpster.

Interesting thought. Flake could be running if reelected to the senate. Pence? I have no idea how loyal he is to Trump. Things need to get very bad so that Pence feels compelled to work against his boss. He didn't leave the campaign when Trump's tape came out. So, I'm not sure. The last VP to run against his president was FDR's John Nance Garner in 1940 under completely different circumstances.

It is now difficult to foresee, but a primary challenge for President Pussygrabber is possible if his popularity is weak. Kasich seems the most reasonable since he has nothing to lose. Sasse? I don't think so since he's also up for the senate by 2020. The same is true for Cotton. Cruz could be doing it if he thinks The Donald is "not conservative enough". Who else is there? Ryan? I don't think so. And Little Marco will back down. I have a feeling the GOP will mostly fall in line with President Pussygrabber in the next years.

[JoshPA]

No i dont i dont believe the damn polls for a second since the wiki leaks it prevented me from trusting the polls the media are faking them because they hate trump the only primaried are thought minor guys that are on a few states so yes he will but at best it be like obama  in 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

No. There will no major defections from the GOP - They will be reasonably united.

If people think GOP leaders have balls, they are mistaken. They are clearly supportive of Trump by allowing to do anything but want to distance themselves in some issues & will pretend to look inclusive!

He doesn't need "major" defections for there to be a primary challenge.  All that's needed is one person to take the plunge and decide to run against him.  Of course the majority of the party will stick with him, but that isn't what's being asked.

The GOP at this point is like the CCP under Stalin. Nobody is allowed to vote, overtly criticize, or get too out of line with Trump who runs the GOP using pure fear. The only thing they haven't done yet is jailed or killed those that do.

Trump could be at 20% approval rating but nobody will dare primary him from within the party.

Huh?  Of course the majority of Republicans back him, but "nobody is allowed" to challenge him within the party, or vote against him?  Amash has attacked him repeatedly since election day, on a host of issues.  And he voted against the waiver for Mattis, along with a couple of other Republicans.  And Paul voted against confirmation for Pompeo.  And many Republicans in Congress have criticized Trump over Russia, not to mention the 30+ Republicans in Congress who've criticized the Muslim ban.

And that's just those Republicans currently in Congress.  There are plenty more out there who have criticized Trump on something or other since the election.  Of course most of those people aren't going to actually run for the Republican nomination.  But again, all it takes is one.

[Mr. Morden]

The GOP at this point is like the CCP under Stalin. Nobody is allowed to vote, overtly criticize, or get too out of line with Trump who runs the GOP using pure fear. The only thing they haven't done yet is jailed or killed those that do.

Trump could be at 20% approval rating but nobody will dare primary him from within the party.

Huh?  Of course the majority of Republicans back him, but "nobody is allowed" to challenge him within the party, or vote against him?  Amash has attacked him repeatedly since election day, on a host of issues.  And he voted against the waiver for Mattis, along with a couple of other Republicans.  And Paul voted against confirmation for Pompeo.  And many Republicans in Congress have criticized Trump over Russia, not to mention the 30+ Republicans in Congress who've criticized the Muslim ban.

And that's just those Republicans currently in Congress.  There are plenty more out there who have criticized Trump on something or other since the election.  Of course most of those people aren't going to actually run for the Republican nomination.  But again, all it takes is one.

I hate to break it to you...but if you think the GOPers in Congress will keep Trump in check then forget it. You have one group that release "strongly worded" statements expressing "concern" and then take no action or go and do whatever Trump tells them to do (McCain, Graham, Collins, etc...) Then you have a Amash and Paul who vote against Trump on things THEY KNOW will pass so it's all just empty posturing.

These people know what they are doing. Most of these are spineless politicians who have no real core principles and all of them combined couldn't block anything anyway

Of course they're not going to keep Trump in check.  I never said that they would.  I said that it's not true that none of them ever vote against him or criticize him.  So I don't get how "Nobody is allowed to vote, overtly criticize, or get too out of line with Trump" makes sense.

And again, if we're talking about whether Trump will face a primary challenge, all it takes is one person to do so.  It's not like the GOP congressional caucus has to stage a vote amongst themselves in order for one person to run against Trump in the 2020 primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

Also, I'm not sure how "Amash and Paul only vote against Trump on things they know are going to pass" makes any sense.  Everything that the majority of the GOP caucus backed that's been up for a vote in Congress in the past week was already going to pass, regardless of how they voted.  If Amash cloned himself and got himself elected to 100 other seats in the House, then plenty of things that Trump supports wouldn't pass, or at least would be on the bubble.  Amash is only 1 member, so he can't create close votes by himself out of thin air.  Since the overwhelming majority of the rest of the caucus is going to back Trump, there's not a whole lot he can do.

[Mr. Morden]

Of course, every incumbent president faces primary challengers of some kind.  It’s just that they’re usually nobodies.  Obama’s 2012 challengers included John Wolfe and Darcy Richardson, and they got no media coverage, and nobody’s ever heard of them.

However, Obama also had unified support among party elites.  My guess is that Trump will not.  At least if you define “party elites” broadly, to include conservative media figures like Bill Kristol.  If, say, Evan McMullin (or even someone currently more obscure than McMullin) runs a primary campaign against Trump, there’ll be folks like Kristol who’ll at least *consider* backing them.  And on that basis alone, they’ll get some media coverage.  And some media outlets will include them in polls, even if they’re losing to Trump in primary polls by 60 points.  That’s why this is different from other recent presidential reelections.

So McMullin is certainly one possible primary opponent for Trump, but it could also be someone who either currently holds office or has previously held office, with Amash being the most likely.

Here is what Amash was saying about running for president in 2020 or beyond last year:

Because I only started this thread a few weeks ago, I'm still catching up on news from months ago.  E.g., in February, Justin Amash sounded like someone with presidential ambitions:

http://rare.us/story/would-justin-amash-run-for-president/

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Justin Amash hinted both at a "Young Americans for Liberty" event and on Twitter that he's up for a 2020 presidential run:

http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/amash-hints-2020-presidential-run/

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Since the election, Amash has been more critical of Trump than any other Republican member of Congress.  Offering snark on Twitter not just on policy but also on ethics.  (Have any other Republicans in Congress criticized Trump over conflicts of interest with his business dealings?)

There’s also the fact that, assuming Rand Paul doesn’t also run, this could be Amash’s opportunity to steal the mantle of the “Liberty” wing of the GOP away from the Paul family.  If Amash waits until 2024, then he likely runs in a field that includes the better-known Paul, making life more difficult for him.  But if he’s the lone primary challenger to Trump, then he’s an instant celebrity.

If not Amash, then someone else in the Liberty wing of the party is possible.  And if none of them, and if not McMullin, then there could also be a primary challenger from the center.  Some retired “RINO” governor or senator with nothing to lose who’s disgusted with what Trump has done to the party, and is willing to run a quixotic campaign against him out of principle, even if they’re only going to end up with 10% of the vote in the process.  I suppose Kasich could fit this mold, but it would probably be someone else….though I’m not sure who.  But there are plenty of retired Republican politicians who can’t stand Trump, so it’s not like you would have difficulty putting together a list of options.  All it takes is one person for it to happen.

OTOH, I have a hard time seeing, say, Cruz or Rubio mounting a primary challenge, even though I’m sure they can’t stand Trump either.  They think they can win the nomination in a “normal” year, and will view a primary challenge to Trump as being too risky.

[Frodo]

No one will even dare to.

[BuckeyeNut]

No. There will no major defections from the GOP - They will be reasonably united.

If people think GOP leaders have balls, they are mistaken. They are clearly supportive of Trump by allowing to do anything but want to distance themselves in some issues & will pretend to look inclusive!

It wouldn't be about having "balls," it would be about being opportunistic.

[impactreps]

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/01/31/john-kasichs-new-book-fuels-2020-speculation/21704466/

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I don't know if he's going to run but he's definitely keeping his options open. Drawing a distinction with Trump this early suggests he probably wants to run. If he does I'd vote for him.

[Mister Mets]

It's possible.

There are too many Republicans with nothing to lose. At the same time, presidential campaigns serve as ways to get a lot of media obscure for an obscure member of Congress.

[Mr. Smith]

Only if things start to look really bad for the GOP on re-electing him, and even then expect a half-a^^ed run that probably costs Trump California, a few Northeastern states, and Utah at best.

[GoTfan]

It's possible.

There are too many Republicans with nothing to lose. At the same time, presidential campaigns serve as ways to get a lot of media obscure for an obscure member of Congress.

Especially in 2020. All it takes is one person with enough momentum.

[Downnice]

If He is not impeached by 2020 he will get a challenge