France : Who has the best chance of beating Marine Le Pen in the second round?

[UWS]

Who has the best chance of beating Marine Le Pen in the second round?

Francois Fillon or Emmanuel Macron?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Me.

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess Macron. He’s less controversial and could pull out more support across the spectrum. I guess that the Fillon dude would have problems to turn out enough liberal and left votes. Nevertheless, I believe that both would beat LePen by a decent margin.

[UWS]

All right!

You convinced me that if Le Pen were to be in the second round so should be Emmanuel Macron.

So I guess that Francois Fillon should be eliminated in the first round, thus avoiding a French Hillary Clinton and ensuring the loss of a French Donald Trump (Le Pen).

[DavidB.]

Fillon, of course. 2002 all over again; with a much stronger Le Pen and a much weaker "mainstream" right-wing candidate, but still. It is Macron-Le Pen that could absolutely turn into a Hillary-Trump thing, with Le Pen being able to position herself on his left economically against "globalism" and the like.

[UWS]

Fillon, of course. 2002 all over again; with a much stronger Le Pen and a much weaker "mainstream" right-wing candidate, but still. It is Macron-Le Pen that could absolutely turn into a Hillary-Trump thing, with Le Pen being able to position herself on his left economically against "globalism" and the like.

But Fillon is more controversial and risks being indicted into the scandal about his wife and her money. That's why I think Fillon is the equivalent of Hillary.

[Klartext89]

She'll lose against both, I'm afraid.

The question is: Would it be better for her to talk about social and economic policies (against Fillon) or about immigration, terrorism etc issues against Macron. I'm not sure.

[ApatheticAustrian]

well...i am sure the 40% left-wing voters would instantly pick social-murderer fillon.

[MAINEiac4434]

Considering Fillon is currently under investigation, Macron by default.

[Zinneke]

Considering Fillon is currently under investigation, Macron by default.

Who is Jacques Chirac again?

[UWS]

Considering Fillon is currently under investigation, Macron by default.

Who is Jacques Chirac again?

Former French President from 1995 to 2007.

[Lord Halifax]

Considering Fillon is currently under investigation, Macron by default.

Who is Jacques Chirac again?

Former French President from 1995 to 2007.

That was a rhetorical question.

[mgop]

those who say macron are probably the same who said that hillary will beat trump in landslide. oh liberals will never learn lol

[ApatheticAustrian]

those who say macron are probably the same who said that hillary will beat trump in landslide. oh liberals will never learn lol

ofc the charismatic outsider macron is just like hillary.

[Antonio the Sixth]

those who say macron are probably the same who said that hillary will beat trump in landslide. oh liberals will never learn lol

ofc the charismatic outsider macron is just like hillary.

roflmao

[Angel of Death]

Michael Bloomberg seems like the better comparison:
Moderate Savior Coming From The Outside To Rescue The Republic From The Extremes Straight From The Middle!™

[windjammer]

Definitely Macron, duh.

I mean, Fillon isn't going TL get many leftwingers. Macron is a centridt and would more easily federate.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Macron may be a moderate hero, bur right now I'd take freaking Joe Manchin over Le Pen.

[Blair]

As others have said Fillion would hardly be the first candidate (or first president) to be brought on corruption charges

[andrew_c]

Fillon is at +20 against Le Pen, while Macron is at +30 against Le Pen. Macron is able to attract more disaffected LR voters than Fillon is able to attract disaffected PS voters.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

in the alternative universe where Valls left the Hollande government instead of Macron after PS insufficiently smashes the gypsies or whatever, I think he would be extremely favoured, because the issues that Manuel feints rightwards is on stuff French people like (security, no Muslims) whereas the rightwards things Macron is associated with is the sort of stuff French voters (well, all voters, but especially French ones) dislike: "corporations are people my friend"ism, working longer hours and higher retirement ages.

So I'll say Fillon is favoured even with the corruption charges.

[DavidB.]

Macron has all the negatives of Fillon and none of the positives. Le Pen will still be able to position herself to the "left" of Macron on economic issues, attracting working-class voters. Yet while Fillon is "tough on crime/Muslims", sufficiently so for right-wingers to vote for him instead of Le Pen, Macron is not like that at all. And it's an illusion to think non-working-class left-wing voters would stay home in a Fillon-Le Pen runoff, handing Le Pen the victory; most of them would ultimately turn out for Fillon anyway, just like they turned out for Chirac in 2002.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron has all the negatives of Fillon and none of the positives. Le Pen will still be able to position herself to the "left" of Macron on economic issues, attracting working-class voters. Yet while Fillon is "tough on crime/Muslims", sufficiently so for right-wingers to vote for him instead of Le Pen, Macron is not like that at all. And it's an illusion to think non-working-class left-wing voters would stay home in a Fillon-Le Pen runoff, handing Le Pen the victory; most of them would ultimately turn out for Fillon anyway, just like they turned out for Chirac in 2002.

I'm a non-working-class left-wing voter, and if that's the choice I'll get in the runoff, I'm strongly considering casting a blank vote.

[DavidB.]

Macron has all the negatives of Fillon and none of the positives. Le Pen will still be able to position herself to the "left" of Macron on economic issues, attracting working-class voters. Yet while Fillon is "tough on crime/Muslims", sufficiently so for right-wingers to vote for him instead of Le Pen, Macron is not like that at all. And it's an illusion to think non-working-class left-wing voters would stay home in a Fillon-Le Pen runoff, handing Le Pen the victory; most of them would ultimately turn out for Fillon anyway, just like they turned out for Chirac in 2002.

I'm a non-working-class left-wing voter, and if that's the choice I'll get in the runoff, I'm strongly considering casting a blank vote.

Sure, but you are hardly representative for that group of voters. Most people aren't nearly as politically engaged as people like us are. And I said "most of them", not "all of them."

And would you vote for Macron over Le Pen? (Reminds me I have to get back to that one thread about Hamon; I promise I will!)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Macron has all the negatives of Fillon and none of the positives. Le Pen will still be able to position herself to the "left" of Macron on economic issues, attracting working-class voters. Yet while Fillon is "tough on crime/Muslims", sufficiently so for right-wingers to vote for him instead of Le Pen, Macron is not like that at all. And it's an illusion to think non-working-class left-wing voters would stay home in a Fillon-Le Pen runoff, handing Le Pen the victory; most of them would ultimately turn out for Fillon anyway, just like they turned out for Chirac in 2002.

I'm a non-working-class left-wing voter, and if that's the choice I'll get in the runoff, I'm strongly considering casting a blank vote.

Sure, but you are hardly representative for that group of voters. Most people aren't nearly as politically engaged as people like us are. And I said "most of them", not "all of them."

And would you vote for Macron over Le Pen? (Reminds me I have to get back to that one thread about Hamon; I promise I will!)

I'm unrepresentative in many ways, but I think I'm fairly representative in this particular respect. There's a long (minority) tradition of hard-leftist sympathies among the French middle- and upper-middle classes (that's where the term "bobo" comes from). Those people tend to loathe what Fillon stands for, especially if you factor in his Religious Right-ish tendencies. Many of them will still vote for him in a runoff against Le Pen, but quite a few won't.

And yeah, if its's Macron vs Le Pen I'll definitely hold my nose and vote Macron. At least he doesn't plan to completely wreck the welfare state.