Carey
Rookie
Posts: 105
Political Matrix
E: -3.38, S: -5.74
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« on: January 03, 2004, 09:53:36 AM » |
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Will Arnold be re-elected? Very good question, and the best answer for this is, I don't know, we shall wait and see.
We'll need to wait and see whether California starts getting better under him or not (pretty much the litmus test for all politicians.)
If things remain bad, or even get worse, chances are, he'll have trouble getting re elected.
It also depends who the candidate is that goes against him. If the Democrat is a good, enthusiastic candidate full of ideas for the state, he/she will be good competition. If he/she is just another DLC "elect me because I am qualified" drone, he/she will probably lose.
It's important to realise that Arnold was not elected because of a "rising republican trend" or anything - heck he's more liberal than many southern Democratic governors, he was elected due to his popularity. He would've probably won under any party's banner - short of the communists or the nazis.
Also remember a lot of Arnold's votes were first time votes, the "wouldn't it be cool if the Terminator was our governor?" novelty votes, and the thing about novelties, is they wear off quickly, so he's probably lost that group now (that group won't go Democratic, they just won't vote at all.) He'll have to rely purely on the concerned voter.
Basically to summarise, if he does his job well, he'll get re-elected (and would deserve to be), if not and somebody decent challenges him, he can go back to making movies.
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