here's some interesting data that might help
- county names are colored by how it generally aligns in presidential elections
- first section compares total votes cast in each party's primary
- second section compares total primary votes cast for Murphy (MPH) vs Guadagno (GDN)
- third section shows 2016 election results
county essex bergen middlesex hudson monmouth morris ocean camden union burlington passaic somerset mercer atlantic gloucester hunterdon sussex warren cape may cumberland salem new jersey | DEM 90 68 79 92 57 49 39 80 81 64 61 57 81 61 69 41 34 38 39 63 59 67 | GOP 10 32 21 8 43 51 61 20 19 36 39 43 19 39 31 59 66 62 61 37 41 33 | MGN -80 -36 -57 -85 -14 +2 +23 -60 -62 -27 -21 -15 -62 -22 -37 +18 +33 +25 +21 -25 -18 -35 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | MPH 95 64 81 94 50 49 28 80 85 68 59 67 83 58 76 43 30 33 32 56 60 68 | GDN 5 36 19 6 50 51 72 20 15 32 41 33 17 42 24 57 70 67 68 44 40 32 | MGN -89 -27 -61 -88 -1 +1 +44 -60 -69 -36 -17 -34 -67 -16 -52 +15 +41 +33 +37 -13 -19 -36 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | D16 76 54 58 73 42 45 31 63 66 54 59 53 66 51 47 40 32 34 38 50 40 55 | R16 20 41 37 22 52 49 64 31 31 40 37 41 29 44 47 53 62 59 57 44 54 41 | MGN -56 -13 -21 -51 +9 +4 +33 -32 -36 -15 -22 -13 -37 -7 +1 +14 +30 +25 +20 -6 +15 -14 |
incidentally, the overall margin of dem vs gop primary votes (-35%) is virtually identical to the margin of murphy vs. guadagno primary votes (-36%) so you could compare the two margins by county and roughly surmise which counties murphy and guadagno will have especially strong support from in the general election. if murphy's margin over guadagno in a county was greater than the general dem margin, then you could surmise that he'll perform better than the average. and if it's smaller, then you could guess he'll perform worse. (same thing for guadagno) (caveat this isn't an exact apples-to-apples comparison and the primary doesn't necessarily indicate the much larger general election vote, since primary turnout was so abysmal)