What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?
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  What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?
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Author Topic: What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?  (Read 8212 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #100 on: September 26, 2017, 04:17:32 PM »

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

are you joking, because if so lol
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Solid4096
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« Reply #101 on: September 26, 2017, 08:32:45 PM »

45%
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #102 on: September 27, 2017, 10:13:42 PM »

80%. He's popular, charismatic, and has distanced himself from Trump.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #103 on: September 28, 2017, 08:54:55 AM »

60%. Hogan is favored now, but Maryland is a difficult state even for moderate conservative (who he really is).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #104 on: September 28, 2017, 09:08:36 AM »

Coin flip
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Virginiá
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« Reply #105 on: September 28, 2017, 11:57:27 AM »

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

are you joking, because if so lol

He's talking about redistricting. Regardless, I bet Democrats would still have the numbers in the legislature to override Hogan's veto of any congressional map, even an 8-0 D one (which they were silly to not do in 2011).

Even then, it's still not right. Hogan can veto Congressional maps (but not legislative ones), and Democrats could override his veto. Maryland also only holds legislative elections in midterm years, so after 2010 and 2014, their ranks have been depleted and are poised for a strong rebound in 2018. The reason this is relevant is because they can already override Hogan's vetoes, and their ability to do will only be more solid by 2021.

To that effect, I imagine Democrats will get whatever maps they want. Their real risk is from the courts striking them down. A federal panel is already hearing a lawsuit against their map, so there is that.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #106 on: September 28, 2017, 12:17:01 PM »

I don't know why they wouldn't just go for a clean 8-0 map if it does get struck down then. Just go full NCGOP. It's fairly easy to make actually, particularly if you have no qualms crossing the Bay.

Granted I'm not too knowledgeable about their last map drawing shenanigans, but I think it was more focused on incumbent protection. Also you're right, if there is anything Republicans have taught us about redistricting, it is that terrible maps can still be enacted anyway and used for a cycle or two (or three, or four... looking at you, Texas...) while the courts drag their feet on it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #107 on: September 28, 2017, 12:51:40 PM »

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

are you joking, because if so lol

He's talking about redistricting. Regardless, I bet Democrats would still have the numbers in the legislature to override Hogan's veto of any congressional map, even an 8-0 D one (which they were silly to not do in 2011).

Even then, it's still not right. Hogan can veto Congressional maps (but not legislative ones), and Democrats could override his veto. Maryland also only holds legislative elections in midterm years, so after 2010 and 2014, their ranks have been depleted and are poised for a strong rebound in 2018. The reason this is relevant is because they can already override Hogan's vetoes, and their ability to do will only be more solid by 2021.

To that effect, I imagine Democrats will get whatever maps they want. Their real risk is from the courts striking them down. A federal panel is already hearing a lawsuit against their map, so there is that.

Sorry, I thought Maryland was a 2/3rd veto override state, not a 3/5ths. Dems will be able to draw whatever maps they want. Hopefully the clean them up from a visual perspective, while also going after Andy Harris. No reason to not go for a 8-0 map.
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #108 on: September 28, 2017, 05:48:12 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2017, 05:52:10 PM by Tartarus Sauce »

I don't know why they wouldn't just go for a clean 8-0 map if it does get struck down then. Just go full NCGOP. It's fairly easy to make actually, particularly if you have no qualms crossing the Bay.

Granted I'm not too knowledgeable about their last map drawing shenanigans, but I think it was more focused on incumbent protection. Also you're right, if there is anything Republicans have taught us about redistricting, it is that terrible maps can still be enacted anyway and used for a cycle or two (or three, or four... looking at you, Texas...) while the courts drag their feet on it.

This is what I don't get though, even if you take in partisan and incumbent protection considerations, the sheer disjointedness of the districts is completely unnecessary. I see no logical reason for the current "shapes" ---if you can even call them shapes--- of districts like 2 and 3. They're so bad I have to imagine it gets in the way of being able to actually outreach on constituent services because people have no clue which twisted snake of a district actually happens to narrowly encompass their street. You can make far less abominably shaped districts that still fulfill incumbent protections and gerrymandering purposes.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #109 on: September 28, 2017, 06:30:56 PM »
« Edited: September 28, 2017, 06:32:42 PM by Virginia »

Sorry, I thought Maryland was a 2/3rd veto override state, not a 3/5ths. Dems will be able to draw whatever maps they want. Hopefully the clean them up from a visual perspective, while also going after Andy Harris. No reason to not go for a 8-0 map.

I imagine they will shoot for an 8-0 map if they think they can pull it off without immediately getting tossed before 2022's elections. There will be a lot of pressure from the national party for state Democrats to maximize seats where ever they control the maps. This, of course, assumes that SCOTUS refuses to address partisan gerrymandering in Gill vs Whitford.

This is what I don't get though, even if you take in partisan and incumbent protection considerations, the sheer disjointedness of the districts is completely unnecessary. I see no logical reason for the current "shapes" ---if you can even call them shapes--- of districts like 2 and 3.

Don't quote me on it, but it may have to do with the degree to which MD Congresscritters were asking for tweaks to their districts. If your main priority is to give all the members of your delegation the exact constituencies they are asking for, the map could get messy in a way that an outsider might find nonsensical.

That's what I recall reading, anyhow.
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