What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[History505]

As of now, do you think Hogan is going to win another term for certain, he is on track to win, or he will lose? 2018 Gubernatorial Election still some time away, and we don't even know which Democrats will jump in, so it will be interesting.

[heatcharger]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

[Tartarus Sauce]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

Depending on the national mood, Democrats might not need to invest all that much into the Maryland race at all. Simply because of its heavily Democratic political composition and anti-Trump attitude, Hogan might be overtaken even by a generic Democrat if the Trump backlash grows large enough. Maryland will obviously be one of the most intense focal points if such a development were to occur.

I agree though that it's not the most imperative governor race, Maryland won't be swinging towards the Republicans anytime soon on either the federal or state level and Hogan tends not to rock the boat that much. Hogan very well could end up sinking himself though if he continues to issue unwise declarations of support for Trump's actions.

[GlobeSoc]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

Coming out in favor of an immigration ban in a wealthy liberal state...what was he thinking? I could understand it in say, Rhode Island or Maine, but that seems tremendously idiotic given the environment he will run in.

[publicunofficial]

He's less safe than Baker but more safe than Rauner.

[Figueira]

He's less safe than Baker but more safe than Rauner.

Before the refugee thing I would have said Hogan was safer than Baker, but now I think I'd agree. Massachusetts is more Republican than Maryland at the gubernatorial level anyway.

[Tintrlvr]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

Coming out in favor of an immigration ban in a wealthy liberal state...what was he thinking? I could understand it in say, Rhode Island or Maine, but that seems tremendously idiotic given the environment he will run in.

Hogan's always been from the Trumpite wing of the Republican Party. He just knew how to govern without making too many waves.

That said, this particular episode is likely to be gone from voters' minds by 2018 unless he starts needlessly voicing support for Trump policies on a routine basis.

[justfollowingtheelections]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

WTF?  Why would it not be worth it?  Every seat helps and we're talking about a state that is very winnable for Democrats.

[Virginiá]

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

It's definitely worth it, but only with minor contributions from the national party. Democrats are very likely (imo) to reestablish a strong veto-proof majority in the legislature in 2018, so it's not imminently necessary to oust Hogan as it is in other states, where we need veto power over GOP legislatures and the next redistricting cycle.

I think if 2018 is a good year for Democrats, we could probably take MD back without sacrificing precious resources for more important states.

[Young Conservative]

He's less safe than Baker but more safe than Rauner.

This is the correct response.

[MAINEiac4434]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

I'll take "Things You Don't Say In A State Hillary Won With 60%" for $200, Alex.

[henster]

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

[smoltchanov]

Right now - about Lean R. But it's a lot of time until November 6th 2018

[Gass3268]

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

[somewashingtondude]

He will win.

[Lechasseur]

At the moment I'd say Lean R

[Lechasseur]

He's less safe than Baker but more safe than Rauner.

Agreed

[Jeppe]

African-Americans are usually very inelastic voters, and almost always gives the Democrats +80% of the vote, regardless of how popular the Republican is. Even when Hogan was running even with Brown in 2014, he was polling in the low single digits with them.

For that reason, Hogan will likely always be somewhat vulnerable in Maryland, because a surge in African-American turnout could finish him.

[Deblano]

He's popular, but vulnerable.

[heatcharger]

He could end up like Lincoln Chafee in 2006 -- popular, but not enough to overcome the mood of the country and his state's heavily-Democratic lean.

[KingSweden]

I'm skeptical he will lose at this point in time. Agreed that he's more vulnerable than Baker or Scott, but less so than Sununu or Rauner

[nolesfan2011]

Hogan is perceived well and national Dems may not be in the mood to help whoever the Dem nominee is in this one..I'd say his chances are good (but not great)

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

[RINO Tom]

He'll win.

[Tartarus Sauce]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.