What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[heatcharger]

A couple weeks ago I thought he'd sleepwalk to a 55-44 victory, but he came out in support of the immigration ban, and the anti-Trump fervor in the beltway area is very strong.

He's still moderately popular, but if Democrats are serious about it they can win it back. The question is if it's worth it over trying to snatch open seats in Michigan, Nevada, Florida, etc. or trying to oust Scott Walker. I think he's still favored to get reelected just because Dems have so many other races to focus on.

[heatcharger]

He could end up like Lincoln Chafee in 2006 -- popular, but not enough to overcome the mood of the country and his state's heavily-Democratic lean.

[heatcharger]

@smoltchanov, you are highly overestimating the influence the Baltimore exurbs + rural Western MD + Eastern Shore has on state politics. Also, the Baltimore suburbs are not 'extremely conservative' lol, Hogan just ran far, far ahead of the typical Republican there as well as in the Beltway area, which is why he won in 2014. And just because Harford and Carroll come close to neutralizing Baltimore Co., usually there is nowhere near enough Republican vote to overcome the huge margins Democrats get in MoCo, PG, and Baltimore City.

I'm not saying Hogan won't defy normal conventions in 2018 -- he will. However you also have to remember turnout was really bad in 2014, but with a Trump presidency, it will certainly be up next year, and that's not a dynamic that works in Hogan's favor.