What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Jeppe]

African-Americans are usually very inelastic voters, and almost always gives the Democrats +80% of the vote, regardless of how popular the Republican is. Even when Hogan was running even with Brown in 2014, he was polling in the low single digits with them.

For that reason, Hogan will likely always be somewhat vulnerable in Maryland, because a surge in African-American turnout could finish him.

[Jeppe]

I think one factor that may lead to Hogan's downfall is that he'll be on the same ballot as Ben Cardin (or his replacement). Speaking of which, I could Donna Edwards running for either Governor or for Cardin's seat if he retires.

[Jeppe]

I never said she was an amazing candidate. Edwards is a somewhat prominent Democrat in Maryland who's young and ambitious, and has a unique background for a politician (struggling single mother).

A lot of Democrats are anxious about voting for a Republican with them currently being so prominent throughout every branch of government, and that may also factor into this race, and other races around the country like Baker's.

[Jeppe]

I think I'm gonna rate this race as lean R until I see polls actually showing a competitive race.

[Jeppe]

Some Russian guy arguing with various people about Maryland politics.

Honestly, Larry Hogan would probably need Mississippi style racial polarization to pull of a solid victory, and I just don't see that happening with Trump as president. His best scenario is to pull off a slim victory like in 2014.