What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[hcallega]

It depends on a number of factors:

1-Trump's popularity. If he's as unpopular, or worse, in 2018 as he is today than that really hurts Hogan. Progressives will turnout in large numbers to vote against GOP candidates, and swing-voters will swing left.
2-The Democratic candidate: Right now there are three candidates who have effectively began their campaigns: Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz, Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker, and Congressman John Delaney. If Tom Perez loses the race for DNC Chair than I can see him also jumping into the race. Delaney is a very strong candidate IMO as he's been vocally anti-Hogan while still retaining enough of an independent record on economic issues to carry the suburban voters in Howard and Baltimore County, while fairing better in Western MD (which he represents) than any other nominee. I think Kamenetz is the weakest of the three for a number of reasons I won't go into here, but he's not especially popular even among Baltimore County Democrats (all three of his likely successors have been critical of him) and that alone is concerning. Baker seems promising, but I don't know enough about him.
3-The Democratic Party: This is a sequel to the previous point. The state party has spent the last two years rebuilding since the embarrassing loss in 2014. There's still a lot of work to be done, particularly in the swing-burbs (BalCo, HoCo, AAC, Frederick, etc.). Kathleen Matthews is running for State Chair and looks like the front-runner. How she helps shape the party (i.e. whether they focus on winning over swing voters or double-down on the O'Malley-Brown strategy) will have a big impact on how the eventual nominee in 2018 is seen.
4-Hogan's Strategy Over The Next Two Years: Larry Hogan effectively paved a moderate course through 2015 and 2016. He contrasted nicely with the national GOP, signing into law a reproductive justice law and staying quiet on guns and crime, while still taking the fiscally conservative, pro-business, line that got him elected in the first place. However, Trump presents a yuge problem. First, Hogan said he voted for his dad (a former GOP Congressman) instead of Trump. That didn't do him any favors with the Trumpites. Then he supported the EO, which alienated a lot of socially liberal, fiscally conservative moderates who voted for him.  Basically he's stuck between a rock and a hard place, and the General Assembly Dems have struck a fairly mainstream (if confrontational) tone against him. How Hogan responds over the next year and a half will play a big part in whether or not he's re-elected.

On the whole, I'd say the race leans Dem if they nominate a strong candidate and Trump remains unpopular with Marylanders.

[hcallega]

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

Baltimore County is pretty much the bell-weather for the state. When it goes for the Dems (or splits evenly), the Dems win the state. Hogan got just about 60% of the vote there and he won there. It's also a bit of a microcosm for the state and country more broadly.



The Southeastern chunk of the County used to be reliably Democratic, albeit always pretty conservative. Prior to 2014, they had a Democratic State Senator, three Democratic State Reps, and a Democratic County Councilman. Now all those seats are held by Republicans and they gave over 60% of the vote to Trump. It's an area that used to be heavily industrial, with the world's biggest steel plant. Now that's closed and there aren't enough good paying jobs to go around. There's a lot of new investment, but it has yet to materialize yet.

Northeast and North: Reliably Republican, wealthy exurbs, and rural areas. This is your quintessential conservative base. Trump's strongest region, home of the GOP Senate nominee and the leadership in both the State House and Senate. Cruz did well here in the primaries.

Central: These are the towns of Towson, Parkville, and Pikesville. Towson and Pikesville are both generally Democratic regions, electing all Democrats to the General Assembly, but went for Hogan (narrowly) in 2014 due primarily to economic issues. These are generally well-educated, affluent voters who tend to elect representatives focused on social, environmental, and educational causes (For instance, the Senator from the Pikesville [center-northwest] area is chairman of the Senate Judicial Proceedings Committee.) Parkville is a bit more conservative and a bit less wealthy, but also has a large African-American population. Overall, the central, "inside-the-highway" area is the key area for any statewide Dem to win. Hillary and Van Hollen did easily, while Brown lost it and O'Malley ran even against Ehrlich both in 2006 and 2010.

Northwest: The Democratic base. Northwest Baltimore County, stretching from the City out to Carroll County, is predominately African-American, with a sizable Jewish population as well. The Republican Party doesn't contest this area at all, and the County Councilman here was a Bernie Sanders delegate at the DNC. This area is still predominately middle-class, but voted for Brown over Hogan by a wide margin. Turnout is the key here for the Dems.

Southwest: A hybrid of the central and Southeastern parts of the county in many ways. The far Southeast corner is Arbutus, home of former Governor Bob Ehrlich. It's more working class and comparable to Dundalk across the harbor. Conservative and Trump country. North of that that is Catonsville, a wealthier suburb that is much more liberal and diverse. This area is represented by Democrats at every level of government, but is basically a 55-45 split in terms of who voters support.

On the whole, Baltimore County is a generally left-of-center county but will swing right when the focus is on tax-and-spending issues. The white working class communities of the Southeast and Southwest went from reliably Democratic to reliably Republican, while the wealthier suburbs went from lean GOP to lean Dem over the last 20 years. There's a hotly contested County Executive race and some very close legislative races. 2018 will be a very exciting year in a county that has a lot in common with the country at-large.

[hcallega]

For the record, Delaney hasn't said that he's ruled out running.

He said in September of 2016 that he had "no plans" to run. But that was a world ago politically. Pre-POTUS Trump and pre-Perez winning the DNC Chair (which rules out his candidacy).

I fully expect that he will run and that he'll be the next Governor.