What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[Gass3268]

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

[Gass3268]

We're also forgetting Howard County

[Gass3268]

Trump under 30% approval in MD

Hogan is going to have an awful headwind to fight against next year and its not like he won in a landslide in 2014.

[Gass3268]

The formula for Maryland is simple. If the Big Three Counties go heavily Democratic the Dems win. If they go Dem but at a reduced rate and Baltimore County goes Republican the Republican wins. It's as simple as that.

Now, why wouldn't liberals turn out en masse here? There's also a US Senate race ongoing too.

Howard County (where the Baltimore and DC suburbs blend together) was essentially the bellwether county in 2014 and Clinton got 63% there. Hogan is going to need win this county in order to win in 2018.

[Gass3268]

Hogan came out today in FAVOR of the Democrats fracking ban legislation.

[Gass3268]

Coin flip

[Gass3268]

I think Hogan/Baker should be less of a priority they are relatively harmless and get along pretty well with their D legislatures. When they become like Bruce Rauner then I can understand Ds going all out there. Baker/Hogan are also nice to have when we need bipartisan condemnation of whatever stupid thing Trump is doing.

Democrats lose the 6th in MD if Hogan is reelected.

are you joking, because if so lol

He's talking about redistricting. Regardless, I bet Democrats would still have the numbers in the legislature to override Hogan's veto of any congressional map, even an 8-0 D one (which they were silly to not do in 2011).

Even then, it's still not right. Hogan can veto Congressional maps (but not legislative ones), and Democrats could override his veto. Maryland also only holds legislative elections in midterm years, so after 2010 and 2014, their ranks have been depleted and are poised for a strong rebound in 2018. The reason this is relevant is because they can already override Hogan's vetoes, and their ability to do will only be more solid by 2021.

To that effect, I imagine Democrats will get whatever maps they want. Their real risk is from the courts striking them down. A federal panel is already hearing a lawsuit against their map, so there is that.

Sorry, I thought Maryland was a 2/3rd veto override state, not a 3/5ths. Dems will be able to draw whatever maps they want. Hopefully the clean them up from a visual perspective, while also going after Andy Harris. No reason to not go for a 8-0 map.