What are Hogan's chances to be re-elected?

[smoltchanov]

Right now - about Lean R. But it's a lot of time until November 6th 2018

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

I'm not sure what your point is, the vast majority of the population lives in those two areas + baltimore's broader county (where GOP is toxic as well).

For Republicans to win statewide they need to cut DEEP into democratic support in those counties, particularly Montgomery... good luck with that.

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

Ummm...Clinton won Baltimore County (aka, the suburbs) by 18 points. Hogan needs to replicate his 2014 twenty-point win there to even have a chance statewide. I don't doubt that Hogan will probably win Baltimore County, but I'm skeptical of him pulling off numbers of that magnitude again in a year where Democratic turnout will be through the roof.

Baltimore county is only PART of suburbs. How about Carroll or Harford?

[smoltchanov]

^ That's why i don't consider Hogan's reelection as "done deal". But before Trump's order and his reaction i considered his chances (taking into consideration his likely big margin on Eastern Shore and some - in Ann Arundel and Western Maryland (as small as it is)) as something between "lean" and "likely". Now - between "tilt" and "lean". Surely, he damaged himself with most of well-educated moderate voters (reaction of Baker in Massachusetts and Scott in Vermovt was much more reasonable), but - still... And absence of serious Democratic candidate will improve his chances as time passes.voters

P.S. I usually consider exurbs as "outer suburbs" in order not to add another layer of data into consideration

[smoltchanov]

I think one factor that may lead to Hogan's downfall is that he'll be on the same ballot as Ben Cardin (or his replacement). Speaking of which, I could Donna Edwards running for either Governor or for Cardin's seat if he retires.

Please, tell me, what's so good with Donna Edwards (besides her being a "bold progressive", which is NOT a plus for me, but rather a minus (even in so blue state))?

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

DC area+Baltimore area is the vast majority of the state's population, hence why the state is so heavily Democratic.

I said Baltimore city. Baltimore suburbs are mostly conservative, frequently - extremely conservative.

Hillary won Baltimore County 56%-38%

Baltimore county is only PART of suburbs. How about Carroll or Harford?

You might be able to consider parts of Harford as in the Balitmore Metro, but not Carroll,  it's too remote and far away.

Carroll and Harford almost neutralized Baltimore county even in 2016 with Trump being far less popular in Maryland then Hogan. Trump won these counties together by about 62 thousands of votes, losing Baltimore county by 69 thousands. Hogan, naturally, will do much better. And Trump won eastern shore by about 46 thousands. What will be Hogan's margin there? Western Maryland (from Garrett to Frederick) gave Trump about 44.000 margin, and will give Hogan more. Calvert, St. Mary, may be even Ann Arundel? (yeah, i know that Clinton narrowly won the last, but Hogan is no Trump)

[smoltchanov]

@smoltchanov, you are highly overestimating the influence the Baltimore exurbs + rural Western MD + Eastern Shore has on state politics. Also, the Baltimore suburbs are not 'extremely conservative' lol, Hogan just ran far, far ahead of the typical Republican there as well as in the Beltway area, which is why he won in 2014. And just because Harford and Carroll come close to neutralizing Baltimore Co., usually there is nowhere near enough Republican vote to overcome the huge margins Democrats get in MoCo, PG, and Baltimore City.

I'm not saying Hogan won't defy normal conventions in 2018 -- he will. However you also have to remember turnout was really bad in 2014, but with a Trump presidency, it will certainly be up next year, and that's not a dynamic that works in Hogan's favor.

I will not go in this dispute further. Time will tell. Just as easily i could say that you overestimate "an abyss" where Trump can fall. IMHO - he will be unpopular, but not THAT unpopular. But i understand that Democrats lost so many races of late that they tend to grasp at any potentially winnable races and declare them "a big Democratic hope". From Maryland and Massachusetts to Arizona and Texas.

[smoltchanov]

Google Consumer Survey: Hogan +17 against Edwards 253RV (Hogan 54, Edwards 37)

Edwards (by style at least) is one of the worst candidates i know. Hope Maryland Democrats will find someone much better. And i don't see a big problem even if he/she will be white..

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

A Republican running for statewide office in Maryland is never the frontrunner.  The GOP brand is toxic in the DC area right now.  I don't think he gets re-elected.

And Democratic brand is toxic outside of DC area and Baltimore city. What will prevail?

I'm not sure what your point is, the vast majority of the population lives in those two areas + baltimore's broader county (where GOP is toxic as well).

For Republicans to win statewide they need to cut DEEP into democratic support in those counties, particularly Montgomery... good luck with that.

Explained above. Baltimore county is NOT as Democratic as city, and neighbouring suburbs are extremely conservative. Yes, Hogan needs to minimize losses in Democratic areas, but until recently (his comments on Trump immigration order) he successfully did exactly that. Now - not so sure, but he surely remains relatively popular and i wouldn't write him off right now. It seems most Democratic potential candidates are not eager to take on him as well....

This isn't even close to being true.  Baltimore suburbs aren't even conservative much less "extremely conservative."  Maybe parts of Anne Arundel are somewhat white working class, but they're offset by a large black population.  Not to mention, I believe that county even voted in favor of gay marriage several years ago, as well as most of the close in Baltimore suburbs.  I do not consider counties that voted for gay marriage to be "extremely conservative" - where are you getting this nonsense from?  

Nonsense? Ann Arundel frequently voted (and votes) for conservative Republicans in legislature (including some much more conservative then Hogan)  and in not so distant past - for relatively conservative Democrats too. And for Hogan, of course, by big margin (66% in 2014). And in "suburbs" i include not only close suburbs of Baltimore county itself (well, let's say i slightly exaggerated their conservatism, but not by too much), which voting behavoir is described above in details,  but exurbs of Carroll and Harford counries too. You will say they are not extremely conservative too (63 and 58% even for Trump, and astronomical 82 and 76 - for Hogan)? Are you not too naughty, BTW?? And who gave you the right to speak to me in such patronizing tone, especially when you make more factual errors then even i (from abroad and purely Internet-based at present)?

P.S. General conclusion: a partisan hacks are not worthy to be source of impartial analysis and detailed voter behavoir. They are too blindsided for that. And present a picture, which they would like to be a reality, but which has nothing in common with reality itself.

[smoltchanov]

Republicans have won 1 term governorships in Maryland in the past, they've won Senate seats in Massachusetts, but they are always the underdog.  

With such "uncompromising approach" you risk to be underdog everywhere outside some ultraliberal bubbles very soon. And you will absolutely deserve it. It's people like you ("wild-eyed activists with foam at the lips") who lead millions away from Democratic party (which becomes more and more simuilar to British Labor party under Corbin leadership) and to Trump (like my cousin, who was proud Obama voter in 2008 and 2012, and no less proud Trump voter last year). Blame themselves for your laughable results. Even in Trump's midterm in 2018 you may be able to snatch defeat out of jaws of victory. Simply because too many people hate you. More then they hate Trump.

[smoltchanov]

Oh ok, sorry - didn't realize you were trolling.  Carry on.

A troll accusing others to be a troll... Funny.

[smoltchanov]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

[smoltchanov]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

Greetings to FAKE communist and a REAL troll))))))

[smoltchanov]

Oh ok, sorry - didn't realize you were trolling.  Carry on.

A troll accusing others to be a troll... Funny.

Someone claiming Baltimore County is "extremely conservative" showing his face again in the same thread.  Funny.

I already explained, where words "extremely conservative" must be applied. But you are to dumb to inderstand, probably. Even plain English

[smoltchanov]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

your trolling is just adorable.  Tell us again about your vast knowledge of Baltimore county (where I used to live) and how it's "extremely conservative."  

My brother lived there too for years. And - apology to idiots - even them usually know how to avoid repeating the sapme phrase more again and again. That's not the case here. Sir, you are under-Idiot:))))

P.S. For those who can read and understand - i alreagy explained many times where words "extremely conservative" must be applied. But if a person can't think and understands it in it's own way - it's his fault, not my....

[smoltchanov]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

Greetings to FAKE communist and a REAL troll))))))

Tell us more about how Baltimore County, which gave Hillary Clinton an 18 point margin, which voted in favor of gay marriage, illegal immigrant rights, and legalized gambling, is a bastion of conservatism.  Tell us more about your vast first-hand knowledge of this county.

Well, i have a book from my friend-professor with words "to my Russian friend, who knows American politics better then 99% of Americans". You surely don't belong to 1%, dummy....

[smoltchanov]

This board is an incredible place.  You can be lectured by someone who's probably never even been in this country about a county you've LIVED IN.  I see some Russians are still spreading fake news even after the election. 

Spoiler to the rest of this board - Baltimore County is not "extremely conservative."  I've lived there briefly.  It's not even close to being conservative.  Nor is Anne Arundel all that conservative.  Indeed, both counties have voted in favor of legalizing gay marriage, expanding gambling, and for illegal immigrant rights.

Fake news is not news.  Alternative facts are not facts.

Funny. And idiotic. I lived part of my life in US and continue to have relatives and friends there, while you REALLY know nothing (and don't want to know) anything about Russia, besides what mass media says. My best friend is Duke professor, my cousin in Indiana is an associate professor, and my nephew got MBA from UT and now is a financial analyst in San Diego. You are an idiot, Non Swing Voter, who sees nothing behind end of his nose, who sees ONLY a facts he wants to see and ignores reality. As i already said - an idiots like you, who were prominent in Clinton's campaign cost her election, so you are loser to boot, who will lose time after time anywhere outside of "safe havens". Live with it, lose again, blame Russians, because you can't be wrong and make me laugh at those like you time and again.

your trolling is just adorable.  Tell us again about your vast knowledge of Baltimore county (where I used to live) and how it's "extremely conservative."  

My brother lived there too for years. And - apology to idiots - even them usually know how to avoid repeating the sapme phrase more again and again. That's not the case here. Sir, you are under-Idiot:))))

P.S. For those who can read and understand - i alreagy explained many times where words "extremely conservative" must be applied. But if a person can't think and understands it in it's own way - it's his fault, not my....

Still peddling your ridiculous argument that Baltimore County is "extremely conservative?"  Cool story bro.

Still continuing your distortions and pretending not to understand? Yeah, idiots sometimes have difficulties of understanding. Continue, please, i seldom have a good laugh like that..

[smoltchanov]

but but but i read gov tracker once and WOW some democrats used to be conservative and some republicans used to be liberal and that's all i'm going to post about )))))

Greetings to FAKE communist and a REAL troll))))))

Tell us more about how Baltimore County, which gave Hillary Clinton an 18 point margin, which voted in favor of gay marriage, illegal immigrant rights, and legalized gambling, is a bastion of conservatism.  Tell us more about your vast first-hand knowledge of this county.

Well, i have a book from my friend-professor with words "to my Russian friend, who knows American politics better then 99% of Americans". You surely don't belong to 1%, dummy....

Your argument for why Baltimore County is "extremely conservative" is brilliant. 

Visit nearest psychiatrist. He is waiting for you...

[smoltchanov]

^ An idiot is always idiot. You brilliantly proved that. As i already said - your psychiatrist is waiting.

[smoltchanov]

^ An idiot is always idiot. You brilliantly proved that. As i already said - your psychiatrist is waiting.

So, which would you say is a bigger Republican stronghold: San Francisco or Cambridge?   

I knew, that you are an idiot, before, but even i underestimated you:) Continue, please, let me laugh)))))

[smoltchanov]

^ An idiot is always idiot. You brilliantly proved that. As i already said - your psychiatrist is waiting.

So, which would you say is a bigger Republican stronghold: San Francisco or Cambridge?   

I knew, that you are an idiot, before, but even i underestimated you:) Continue, please, let me laugh)))))

Yeah, I thought San Francisco as well.  San Francisco has always been known for its extremely conservative politics. 

Some more, please:)

[smoltchanov]

Trump under 30% approval in MD

Hogan is going to have an awful headwind to fight against next year and its not like he won in a landslide in 2014.

Sure. But that doesn't mean he can't win, isn't it? Democratic nominee may be as bad as in 2014, for example..