Alternate 1980 scenario

[GoTfan]

So everything plays out similarly, but with very notable differences.

Carter is able to resolve the Oil Crisis and Eagle Claw actually turns out to be a success. Reagan wins the nomination, as per OTL in 1980 with Bush as his running mate, but instead of his 'restoring hope' campaign, he instead runs as a more hawkish candidate, advocating for further military action against Iran, and calling Carter soft when related to the Soviet Union.

Meanwhile, Ted Kennedy isn't able to successfully rile up the Democrats' liberal wing, and takes a pass on a challenge when Carter includes a plank calling for universal health coverage and for the promise of staying neutral in the 1984 primary until the nominee is decided. Jerry Brown likewise passes on a challenge when Carter includes a plan to attack Reagan's planed tax cuts, largely on the grounds that they would give corporations undue influence. Mondale is renominated as VP without much controversy, though there is a short-lived 'Draft Ted for VP' movement that Kennedy loudly rejects.

Who emerges as the victor? Carter or Reagan?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Reagan still beats Carter due to the economy

Reagan 354
Carter 184

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This is probably the best Reagan would do:

Reagan 293
Carter 245

It wouldn't be that unlikely for Carter to also flip some additional eastern states to victory, but even a maximal Carter result leaves Reagan with a solid west:

Carter 308
Reagan 230

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is probably the best Reagan would do:

Reagan 293
Carter 245

It wouldn't be that unlikely for Carter to also flip some additional eastern states to victory, but even a maximal Carter result leaves Reagan with a solid west:

Carter 308
Reagan 230

The fact is the economy would have doomed Carter no matter what. The hostage situation just turned the election from an solid Reagan win(like Clinton-Bush) to a landslide victory for Reagan

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You forget that the OP also assumes a more favorable resolution of the Oil Crisis. Under that situation, the economy will be better and not as harmful to the prospects of a Carter reelection.