GA-6 Special election discussion thread
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Author Topic: GA-6 Special election discussion thread  (Read 248993 times)
krazen1211
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« Reply #1875 on: April 27, 2017, 04:40:07 PM »
« edited: April 27, 2017, 05:07:58 PM by krazen1211 »

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/lawsuit-georgia-is-suppressing-ga-6-voters-with-registration-deadline

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This seems non-ambiguous. Runoffs are clearly defined as being applicable to the 30 days or less deadline requirement. I don't get why Georgia would even waste money on defending that.

Oh. Nevermind.

The argument which the state regularly makes is that a runoff is not a separate election but an "extension" of a general election. Bit of strained logic, but there you are.

Of course the runoff is a continuation of the prior election. For one thing, new candidates and new parties cannot enter.

This is of course not a new thing, and it even dates back to when the Democrat party actually won something in Georgia. Ask Thurbert Baker. The voter registration deadline for Georgia's December 2008 Senate runoff was the same as the 2008 general election.

The real reason is that leftists are trying to steal the election with out of district voters.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1876 on: April 28, 2017, 06:05:33 PM »

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http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/28/at-fundraiser-trump-quips-to-handel-youd-better-win-6th-district-race/
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1877 on: April 29, 2017, 12:34:13 AM »

Wow way to give Ossoff ammunition
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Holmes
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« Reply #1878 on: April 29, 2017, 02:27:06 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/858147424271048704

Maddow is a little too excited but this doesn't help with Handel's image of being a fake career politician.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1879 on: May 01, 2017, 09:14:49 PM »

Finally, a poll!

GA-6 Runoff - Anzalone Liszt Grove (D): Ossoff +1

Jon Ossoff - 48%
Karen Handel - 47%
Undecided - 5%

*This is an internal poll for the Ossoff campaign by a pollster that worked for Clinton and Obama.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/01/poll-ossoff-in-dead-heat-with-handel-in-georgias-6th/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1880 on: May 01, 2017, 09:32:55 PM »

Only a tie? SAD!
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RI
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« Reply #1881 on: May 01, 2017, 09:33:06 PM »

Even in an internal Ossoff hasn't gained a single point since the primary...
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Green Line
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« Reply #1882 on: May 01, 2017, 09:40:38 PM »

Democrats should have run a moderate.  This is a Trump district.  Has Hillary endorsed?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1883 on: May 01, 2017, 09:46:43 PM »

Democrats should have run a moderate.  This is a Trump district.  Has Hillary endorsed?

I mean, to be fair, it's barely a Trump district. Any district that is only a couple points or less for Clinton or Trump do not really qualify the same as a district that went double digits for either of them imo.

Considering the primary results, Ossoff performed well, especially taking into account the lean of this district prior to Trump. Given all the attention, money & manpower Ossoff has generated, I'm not sure a better candidate could have been found in time.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1884 on: May 01, 2017, 10:27:09 PM »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1885 on: May 01, 2017, 10:44:04 PM »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #1886 on: May 01, 2017, 10:48:25 PM »

Handel is soaring in the polls!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1887 on: May 01, 2017, 10:50:24 PM »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1888 on: May 01, 2017, 10:54:15 PM »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.
A career party hack is not an "outsider" despite what dnc fundraising emails are telling you
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1889 on: May 01, 2017, 10:57:05 PM »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.
A career party hack is not an "outsider" despite what dnc fundraising emails are telling you

He's never been elected to office and has only run once, so that sounds like an outsider.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #1890 on: May 01, 2017, 11:01:15 PM »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.
A career party hack is not an "outsider" despite what dnc fundraising emails are telling you

He's never been elected to office and has only run once, so that sounds like an outsider.
By that logic Reince Preibus could be considered an outsider. He may not have won an office but he is a political operative and party hack otherwise the democrats would not have rallied around him so quickly or have pumped millions into his campaign
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1891 on: May 01, 2017, 11:07:09 PM »
« Edited: May 01, 2017, 11:34:46 PM by Invisible Obama »

It's not a tie, it's a 1% lead. Considering who his opponent is and the fact that he well over performed every single poll in the primary, I have no doubt that he can win the seat.
Just like you said it was impossible for Trump to win?

Lots of people said that. Miss "I Like To Get Barked At, I'm a celebrity fake grinning at the camera" should be running away with this by double digits. If anything, Ossoff is in Trump's position, because he is an outsider and Handel is an office shopper.
A career party hack is not an "outsider" despite what dnc fundraising emails are telling you

He's never been elected to office and has only run once, so that sounds like an outsider.
By that logic Reince Preibus could be considered an outsider. He may not have won an office but he is a political operative and party hack otherwise the democrats would not have rallied around him so quickly or have pumped millions into his campaign

Instead of pointless arguing, you should go volunteer for Karen Handel.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #1892 on: May 01, 2017, 11:30:16 PM »

By that logic Reince Preibus could be considered an outsider. He may not have won an office but he is a political operative and party hack otherwise the democrats would not have rallied around him so quickly or have pumped millions into his campaign

He was a Congressional staffer during college and then spent his time making documentaries during 2013-January. It would be correct to say Ossoff isn't the "ultimate outsider," but he was directly involved in politics mostly while he was in school, including his HS internship. However, he also isn't the kind of "political operative" your posts would seek to suggest. He hadn't been taking part in that stuff since 2013.

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smoltchanov
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« Reply #1893 on: May 02, 2017, 03:21:36 AM »

Finally, a poll!

GA-6 Runoff - Anzalone Liszt Grove (D): Ossoff +1

Jon Ossoff - 48%
Karen Handel - 47%
Undecided - 5%

*This is an internal poll for the Ossoff campaign by a pollster that worked for Clinton and Obama.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/01/poll-ossoff-in-dead-heat-with-handel-in-georgias-6th/

IMHO - somewhat better for Handel then for Ossoff. He stays put on 48% - exactly the percentage he got in primary, while she more-or-less successfully attracted vast majority of split Republican primary vote. The only forecast that can be made of it: "it will be close" (i am reasonably sure that no candidate will surpass 52% mark here). That's all...
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #1894 on: May 02, 2017, 04:36:23 AM »

So the expectation of him getting a big bump from dissident Republicans didn't happen, at least so far.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1895 on: May 02, 2017, 07:45:02 AM »

So the expectation of him getting a big bump from dissident Republicans didn't happen, at least so far.
Keep in mind the polls have underestimated him by 5 points last time.

Unless republican turnout surges or dem turnout goes down: he should win something like 52-53 against Handel
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DrScholl
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« Reply #1896 on: May 02, 2017, 09:19:45 AM »

I wouldn't say that this stupid "outsider" thing is very important in a district like GA-06 of all places.

Internal polls are often quite accurate and I wouldn't dismiss this poll, but it definitely looks like this race is not "Lean Ossoff" but rather a Tossup, regardless of what Invisible Obama wants you to believe. 53-47 or 52-48 Handel would be my prediction for now. Ossoff seems to have a very high floor, but getting him to 50%+1 will be extremely difficult.

When does early voting begin, btw?

Someone is triggered. All I go by is what the public eats up and being a first time candidate up against a office shopping, scripted politician is a plus.
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #1897 on: May 02, 2017, 09:39:42 AM »

I guess those debates will actual be important
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1898 on: May 02, 2017, 09:42:05 AM »

Campaigns always release internal polls for a reason. Ossoff+1 sends the perfect message to potential activists/donors: "WOW GUYS WE ARE IN THE LEAD THIS IS SO AWESOME BUT JESUS LOOK HOW CLOSE IT IS SO Y'ALL BETTER SEND US SOME CASH MONEY RIGHT THE HELL NOW"

It hits the perfect spot, building optimism without anyone getting complacent
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #1899 on: May 02, 2017, 10:55:25 AM »

Ossoff has reserved $5.2 Million in airtime from now until the runoff.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/02/jon-ossoffs-campaign-readies-a-5-2m-ad-blitz/
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