GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Virginiá]

I'm pretty sure jfern is a Republican concern troll. Notice how he reflectively bashes every "establishment" Democrat over absolutely nothing

He is cut from the same cloth as those who think there is literally a party conspiracy to shut out viable progressive candidates in working class districts in favor of more moderate/centrist candidates in suburbia. He thinks the establishment would rather stay in the minority with centrists than win with progressives, which is silly, imo. If the party picked up the necessary 24 seats with a dozen or more progressives, the establishment would still have a lot of control. You don't need even close to a unanimously-centrist party to rule it in a centrist fashion. Not that I think this is what is happening, anyhow.

[Adam Griffin]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

Is this possibly Timber Ridge? Terrell Mill isn't in the CD according to SoS results, and neither is SS09A.

Precinct	GOP	DEM
Timber Ridge 01	781	536
Pleasantdale Road	165	682
ML05A	3	9

Here's a complete list of each precinct's results listed individually on the website (scroll to bottom):
Fulton
Dekalb
Cobb

Thanks!  There were some ballots showing up in the absentee file with TM01 and SS09A precincts, which is why I was wondering about those.

Is that for April or for June? If the former, does it specify whether those are provisional ballots? Both of those precincts border the CD, so I could easily see there being people who got bombarded with ads and even mailers, who thought they were in the district and were allowed to cast provisionals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have the final Round 1 results for the following four precincts?  (Just total D and total R would be fine).  Thanks in advance.

Cobb TM01 (Terrell Mill)
DeKalb PF (Pleasantdale Road)
Fulton ML05A (Milton 5A)
Fulton SS09A (Sandy Springs 9A)

Is this possibly Timber Ridge? Terrell Mill isn't in the CD according to SoS results, and neither is SS09A.

Precinct	GOP	DEM
Timber Ridge 01	781	536
Pleasantdale Road	165	682
ML05A	3	9

Here's a complete list of each precinct's results listed individually on the website (scroll to bottom):
Fulton
Dekalb
Cobb

Thanks!  There were some ballots showing up in the absentee file with TM01 and SS09A precincts, which is why I was wondering about those.

Is that for April or for June? If the former, does it specify whether those are provisional ballots? Both of those precincts border the CD, so I could easily see there being people who got bombarded with ads and even mailers, who thought they were in the district and were allowed to cast provisionals.

From the June 10th April file.  Your explanation is undoubtedly correct.

[Adam Griffin]

From the June 10th file.

I guess it could still be the same thing: if I recall correctly, provisional ballots can be cast during early voting as well, so that's probably what it is.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the June 10th file.

I guess it could still be the same thing: if I recall correctly, provisional ballots can be cast during early voting as well, so that's probably what it is.

Actually, it was from the April file (too many tabs open).

[Adam Griffin]

From the June 10th file.

I guess it could still be the same thing: if I recall correctly, provisional ballots can be cast during early voting as well, so that's probably what it is.

Actually, it was from the April file (too many tabs open).

In that case, I'm nearly 100% confident that those were provisionals that ended up not being counted.

[Rookie Yinzer]

How dumb does the vermont bum look for not embracing ossof's campaign?

Sorry bernard, but your brand of radical leftwing loonyism has come up empty everywhere, while Ossof's moderate economic, pro-business platform that embraces profits and innovation is about to win.

All the high profile to semi high profile candidates that have been touted as Sanders approved have LOST. His stans are still running around pretending that his endorsement/approval has any weight.

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/16/nancy-pelosi-georgia-special-election-ossoff-handel-239615

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[Hindsight was 2020]

PPNumbers is giving Ossoff a 65% chance of winning https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875794195314814981

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Landmark/WSB poll: https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/875844942115074048

Ossoff 49.7 (+0.1)
Handel 48.0 (+0.9)

EDIT: also http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/6th-district-poll-fewer-voters-undecided/534524963

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Landmark/WSB poll: https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/875844942115074048

Ossoff 49.7 (+0.1)
Handel 48.0 (+0.9)

This whole race is a pure crapshoot...who knows who wins at this point

Exactly.

[Person Man]

Whats the rules for recounts?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Whats the rules for recounts?

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http://ceimn.org/ceimn-state-recount-laws-searchable-database/states/Georgia

[DrScholl]

With rounding, Ossoff is once again at 50% and Handel has stalled at 48%. I'd say Ossoff is on track to win 52-48.

[Person Man]

With rounding, Ossoff is once again at 50% and Handel has stalled at 48%. I'd say Ossoff is on track to win 52-48.

At least he should avoid a recount. But like I said, if he can't even get a recount(lose by less than 1) the Democrats officially have a "brand problem" like the GOP did in 08/09. If tge opposite is true, the Republicans are officially ruing Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

[_]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Also for reference: the distribution of registered voters in the district is approximately Cobb 29%, DeKalb 23%, Fulton 48%.

In-person early voting ended today.  Here are the updated early vote totals (mail plus in-person):

Cobb 27381 (19.5%)
DeKalb 32410 (23.1%)
Fulton 80518 (57.4%)
Total 140309

It appears Fulton will decide the election then.

[Ebsy]

Would be nice to know the actual numbers/percentages by partisanship for the early vote now as well as the early vote for November 2016 for comparison. Hopefuly Cohn or McDonald will whip something up.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Team Handel bringing back the usual red meat for the GOP base:



https://twitter.com/Newsday/status/875498174286311424/

Lol this is actually kinda funny.

[Ebsy]

[_]

I'm going to take a stab at what Ossoff would need to win.  At minimum 56% of the EV, though 58% would be preferable.  Just a guess though.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm going to take a stab at what Ossoff would need to win.  At minimum 56% of the EV, though 58% would be preferable.  Just a guess though.

If we assume a) 230k total votes and b) Ossoff wins 40% of ED vote (I believe it was 41% in April), then 56% of EV is spot-on.

However, I would imagine that there would be some shifts in both figures from April, considering that Democrats won 65% of the EV vote in April. Unless the new voters between April & June lean GOP by a decent margin, either the EV is going to be more Democratic than 56% or ED is going to be far worse for Ossoff.

[Ebsy]

It seems likely to me that a lot of the additional GOP early votes this time around voted election day in the first round. I would expect Ossoff to do a bit worse with the early vote this time around then he did in the first round, but that won't necessarily bad for him if the early vote ends up making up a larger percentage of the total vote.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm going to take a stab at what Ossoff would need to win.  At minimum 56% of the EV, though 58% would be preferable.  Just a guess though.

If we assume a) 230k total votes and b) Ossoff wins 40% of ED vote (I believe it was 41% in April), then 56% of EV is spot-on.

However, I would imagine that there would be some shifts in both figures from April, considering that Democrats won 65% of the EV vote in April. Unless the new voters between April & June lean GOP by a decent margin, either the EV is going to be more Democratic than 56% or ED is going to be far worse for Ossoff.

Actually, I guess we could end up with a 56/40 EV/ED split for Ossoff, considering we have a much larger share of voters this time.

If I'm thinking through it correctly, presumably there'd need to be a large number of GOP voters who voted in April (but not early) more than cancelling out the purportedly-favorable-to-Ossoff newly-registered voters in early voting; that'd drag Ossoff's EV percentage down. Additionally, you'd need a decent number of already-registered GOP voters who didn't vote in April at all to turn out on Election Day, to prevent the ED vote from becoming more Democratic than it was in April. Just an example: you could of course flip/mix those two GOP groups as far as who would be EV/ED.

[hueylong]

I don't think these tricks they're employing, most of which basically amount to name-calling and invoking Democratic boogeymen/women, are going to be very successful or resonate with as many people as they'd like. This is the sixth most-educated district in the entire country. Full of professionals and moderate, reasonable people who care about the issues. So yeah, it's going to take a little more than 'Pelosi!1!!' to convince this electorate.

There's a small part of east Fulton that was weak for Handel in R1, and I don't know why. JC-13A & JC-13B she lost to Gray, and in the former she wasn't even in the top 3 (Ossoff came in 2nd, Moody 3rd). Similar result directly to the north in JC-14: Ossoff picked it up and she came in 3rd behind him and Gray. To the east in JC-12, same story - Ossoff first, Moody second, and she's in third. In JC-11 and JC-07, came in 3rd after Ossoff and Gray. Does anyone know why she performed so poorly there?